Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08LUSAKA1054
2008-10-31 04:55:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Lusaka
Cable title:  

ZAMBIA ELECTION DAY REPORT #3: AN UNREMARKABLE

Tags:  PGOV ZA 
pdf how-to read a cable
P 310455Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6410
INFO SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
UNCLAS LUSAKA 001054 


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: ZAMBIA ELECTION DAY REPORT #3: AN UNREMARKABLE
DAY OF POLLING

REF: A. LUSAKA 1053

B. LUSAKA 1054


Summary:
--------

UNCLAS LUSAKA 001054


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: ZAMBIA ELECTION DAY REPORT #3: AN UNREMARKABLE
DAY OF POLLING

REF: A. LUSAKA 1053

B. LUSAKA 1054


Summary:
--------------


1. (U) Summary: Zambia's October 30 elections were
unremarkable -- peaceful, orderly, and without violence.
Turnout was low; estimates range from 50 percent to less than
25 percent. Low turnout tends to favor incumbents, and post
believes Acting President Banda should benefit. The
Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) made some missteps: its
failure to deliver replacement voter registration cards, for
example, will be a hotly discussed topic in the aftermath of
the election. Life in Lusaka has returned to normal as
Zambians wait patiently for results, due within hours or
days. End summary.

Unremarkable (just the way we want it)
--------------


2. (U) International and local media and observers report
extremely peaceful and orderly behavior at election stations
throughout Zambia. Embassy teams confirmed these reports and
were impressed by ECZ staff professionalism by and large.
However, some smaller rural stations encountered "human
capacity" constraints, but clearly no malfeasance.
Apparently heeding the October 29 entreaties by (separately
and at their respective final rallies) both UPND candidate
Hakainde Hichilema and the PF,s Michael Sata to eschew
aggression and accept the election results, opposition
supporters remained calm; there were no reports of violence
as of 8:00 pm local time.

Mistakes Fuel Suspicions that will Linger
--------------


3. (U) According to Zambian media reports, voting was
extended beyond the 6:00 pm closing in many parts of Kitwe in
the Copperbelt. Kitwe was the locus of much complaining by
opposition parties about replacement voter registration cards
during the day. Voters in Kitwe who had followed ECZ
instructions to secure replacement cards were nonetheless
turned away because the new cards had not been distributed.
The ECZ delivered some of the &missing8 Kitwe voter cards
from Lusaka by helicopter in the afternoon.


4. (U) An unscientific canvassing of a few working-class
Lusakans showed that most had not voted because they had lost
their voter registration cards and failed to request a new
one as instructed by the ECZ. These potential voters are
Michael Sata,s core constituency. These Lusaka observations
could be further evidence of haste-induced ECZ missteps (or,
much less likely, a conscious campaign by ECZ to
disenfranchise some voters),but emboffs believe many
Zambians simply misplaced their cards since 2006 and never
got around to applying for new ones. Either way,
post-election diatribes about the cards are a certainty.

Low turnout: Is it the heat or the humility?
--------------


5. (U) Embassy observer teams (who all told visited scores
of polling stations) estimate that turnout was approximately
50 percent. Zambian news broadcasts paint a more pessimistic
picture. Low turnout typically favors incumbent parties --
which would tip the balance toward Acing President Banda, but
anecdotal observation gives Sata credible support even with
the disappointing turnout.


6. (U) According to national broadcaster ZNBC, in Western
Province voting proceeded at a slow pace throughout the day.
Zambian television journalists said voters attributed the low
turnout to both &the heat8 and widespread loss of voter
registration cards. In the more remote and isolated
Northwest and Luapula provinces, turnout was particularly
low. In several Northwest Province polling stations shown on
the national evening TV news, less than 25 percent of
registered voters cast ballots. Luapula was worse still )
one polling station recorded only 505 voters out of more than
10,900 registered voters. In major towns in Southern
Province participation was higher, particularly in the
morning. Lines had formed at polling stations in Choma by
5:00 am, an hour before the polls opened.

An anti-climactic denouement
--------------


7. (U) By early evening, vehicular and pedestrian traffic
and daily activity in Lusaka had returned to normal. Police
and military headquarters, the Ministry of Defence, and State
House all appeared to be closed for the night.
International and local news moved stories about the conflict
in Eastern DRC to the front. Embassy teams are witnessing
vote counts and thus far report few if any indications of
vote rigging or egregious departure from ECZ protocols.
Emboffs will try to verify posted results as a deterrent to
"creative accounting." Embassy teams will spend the next
several hours observing vote counting, tabulation, and in
some cases transportation of voting materials. Post expects
initial release of results on October 31 and a winner could
be declared by November 1. The presidential inauguration
will take place within 24 hours of the Chief Justice's
declaration.

BOOTH