Strong Sata Support in Northern Province

UNCLAS LUSAKA 001049


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: Strong Sata Support in Northern Province


1. Summary. Conversations with local residents and party reps
suggest that the Patriotic Front (PF) party is set for a strong
showing in Northern Province. Low voter turnout, however, could
limit the party's support, as even local party reps do not expect
more than 50 percent of eligible voters to vote. Campaigning has
been peaceful, but there have been some anecdotal incidents of voter
card buying, disrupted rallies, and distribution of money and gifts
by the ruling party. The region's relative under-development
appears to be the key spur for PF candidate Michael Sata. End
Summary.

PF Confident of Victory
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2. On October 28, Emboffs met with Jim Sinyinza, PF provincial
chair, and Jonas Kalela, PF provincial secretary, in Mpika, the home
of PF candidate Michael Sata. Sinyinza expressed confidence that PF
would win Mpika and Northern Province and fare even better than in
2006, when Sata gleaned 42 percent of the province's vote. He said
the PF's victory in a recent Parliamentary by-election in an area
outside Mpika was a good indication of the party's solid footing in
the region. Sinyinza also considered the participation at PF's
well-attended rallies to be a telling measurement of PF's growing
popularity.


3. Sinyinza said campaigning had been peaceful on all sides, and
that the police have been even-handed. He did say, however, that
representatives of the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy had
been arrested on October 27 for buying voter cards - which are
essential for voting on October 30 - at K50,000 (or approximately
USD 12) each. He added that the MMD, particularly in advance of the
Kanchibiya by-election, had been offering money, food, and clothing
in exchange for political support. He showed emboffs a copy of a
check - one of many, he said - for Kwacha one million (approximately
USD 215) from an alleged MMD rep to a community school, in order to
curry favor. Sinyinza said that PF had advised its supporters to
accept the money, but to vote for PF.


4. Sinyinza expressed concern about voter turnout, which he said
would be lower due to deaths, relocation, and the loss of national
registration cards, which are essential for voting. He thought that
the Zambian Government had restricted NRC renewals/issuances from
areas that are opposition strongholds.

UPND Claims Second Place
--------------


5. Emboffs also spoke with United Party for National Development
(UPND) Mpika regional campaign manager Eli Musukwa, who further
corroborated PF's claims of strength in the province. Musukwa said
PF almost certainly would win in Mpika district and Northern
Province as a whole. He believed, however that UPND could come in
second, taking up to 30 percent of the vote - a claim that seems
quite unrealistic given Hichilema's performance in 2006. Chances of
victory, however, were hindered by UPND leadership's refusal to
commit needed funds to the provincial campaign. Hichilema has made
just one campaign visit to Northern province, in September, and no
other senior leaders have come to campaign. Similarly, he said UPND
would not be able to deploy polling agents to all polling places due
to limited resources devoted to the physically vast province.
Nonetheless, Musukwa said he was confident UPND would beat MMD in
the province-despite the ruling party's financial
enticements-because people were "fed up" with the party's inaction
while in government.


6. Musukwa thought voter turnout would be low, citing similar
reasons as his PF counterpart - youth disenfranchisement, people
having moved or died. While he noted all parties suffered from the
low turnout, the MMD's party machinery would put it at a slight
advantage. He spoke favorably of the ECZ's running of the poll, as
well as the conduct of the campaign, which - despite some incidents
of PF youth disrupting UPND rallies in the province - has been
largely peaceful.

RURAL RESIDENTS BULLISH ON PF
--------------


7. Emboffs spoke with several rural residents in a small village 70
km south of Mpika, who confirmed many of the sentiments expressed by
the opposition party representatives, noting particular
dissatisfaction with MMD leadership and its choice of Banda as its
candidate. They expressed distrust of all politicians, including
Hichilema, as his motives for entering politics seemed unclear to
them. They considered Hichilema's business background as a
negative and associated it with former president Chiluba's corrupt
and inefficient management of privatization in the 1990s. Some of
this resentment also seemed to stem from a perception that southern
regions of Zambia had benefited disproportionately from development
assistance.


8. Villagers acknowledged past practices of gift-giving in 2006,
but they said only MMD had given some clothing in 2008. They said
local traditional leaders have little or no influence any longer on
how rural citizens vote [Note: PF leaders also made this claim,
adding that Western Province is a notable exception. End note.]
They predicted Sata would win three-quarters of the Mpika area vote.
They complained about the region's lack of development under MMD,
and even claimed that they had been told by MMD campaigners that the
region was being punished for withholding support from the ruling
party in the 2006 election. As for Sata, they described him as a
"man of action" capable of implementing change. As an example, they
cited Sata's tarring of the roads in Mpika shortly after being
elected as an Mpika MP in the 1990s. They thought MMD Secretary
General Katele Kalumba would have been a formidable foe for Sata in
Northern and Luapula provinces. They also expected generally low
voter turnout based on apathy and overall disdain for self-serving
politicians. "Why should we put money in their pockets?" one
noted.

Comment
--------------


9. This broad range of perspectives suggests there is a good deal
of truth to underpin Sata's claims of support in the north.
Furthermore, Emboffs were struck by the significant amount of PF
campaign materials encountered as they worked their way northward,
as well as the multitudes of PF supporters who would flash the
party's closed fist symbol as they were passed on the road. A
victory here could prove key in a close race, particularly given
Sata's relatively good performance here in 2006. The MMD's Mpika
campaign manager's refusal to meet with Emboffs also indicates a
degree of insecurity about the party's chances there on October 30.
However, voter turnout, if low, could negate Sata's momentum, as the
MMD's party machinery and resources could be sufficient to hold off
a PF challenge. End comment.

Booth