POST-ELECTION ZAMBIA: A WORLD OF UNCERTAINTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUSAKA 001044


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION ZAMBIA: A WORLD OF UNCERTAINTY

REF: A. LUSAKA 1034

B. LUSAKA 1033

C. LUSAKA 1032

D. LUSAKA 1030

Classified By: Ambassador Donald E. Booth, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (SBU) Summary. As Zambians head to the polls on October
30, they and we are faced with many uncertainties, not only
over who will be the next President of Zambia, but also what
the transition will look like and how the new President will
rule. In true Zambian style, however, the two leading
candidates appear at this point to offer an empty "style over
substance" choice that ultimately will not result in huge
policy differences, at least in the short term. While the
USG cannot expect either Rupiah Banda or Michael Sata to
fully fill the shoes of former president Mwanawasa
(especially on Zimbabwe and the fight against corruption),
neither should we expect the Zambian ship of state to
suddenly lurch wildly off course. The key will be early USG
engagement with whoever wins the election in order to deliver
a message of continued partnership, continuity in the
bilateral relationship and sustained support. End summary.


2. (SBU) The race between presidential front-runners Rupiah
Banda and Michael Sata remains extremely tight, but with
local polls and anecdotal evidence pointing to Sata pulling
ahead, in the final days before election day on October 30.
All campaigns are planning final election rallies in Lusaka
on October 29, and Embassy election monitors have begun to
deploy around the country. The candidates appear determined
to end their campaigns on pretty much the same notes that
they began with - Banda with bland promises of continuing tax
cuts and ruling party largesse, Sata with fiery and
farfetched populist rhetoric (recent entries include a cure
for HIV/AIDS within 90 days of his election and the closure
of the South Africa-owned Zambezi Sun hotel for ludicrous
accusations of labor abuses),and Hakainde Hichilema with
forgettable but technically sound proposals for economic
growth. No one seems to know or wish to report on what
Heritage Party candidate Godfrey Miyanda is saying.


3. (C) While voters may feel that they face a stark choice
between the front-runners -- the affable but weak Banda and
the mercurial but enduringly popular Sata -- their choice
ultimately comes down to a very Zambian one of style over
substance. On the surface, a Banda administration offers
continuity, but Banda is a weak leader presiding over a
fractured ruling party, and he is assumed to be a lame duck
by a party machine that will try its best to ensure he
doesn't run for president again in 2011. Similarly, Sata's
bombastic style does not necessarily translate into actual
policy, as his rhetoric is usually tempered by the sound
counsel of trusted and savvy Patriotic Front (PF)
parliamentarians who will become ministers should Sata be
elected. Sata will also be faced with a Movement for
Multiparty Democracy (MMD) majority in Parliament, which
could constrain some of his more outlandish initiatives if
MMD MPs don't defect en masse in order to curry favor with a
Sata presidency.


4. (C) Neither Sata nor Banda has the leadership or
inclination to follow in the increasingly principled
footsteps of former president Mwanawasa. Zimbabwe is a good
example - Banda, who has a long personal relationship with
Zimbabwean president Mugabe, has so far shown himself to be
weak and indecisive in dealing with the issue, and the GRZ
did not choose to send or express any interest in sending a
representative to recent SADC meetings on Zimbabwe.
Meanwhile, Sata has traditionally embraced Robert Mugabe as
an ally, and made a very public and premature invitation to
Mugabe to attend his (Sata's) presidential inauguration in

2006. Substantiated rumors of corruption also surround
Banda, his family and many of his cronies, and while Sata has
made some noises about continuing the prosecution of the
criminal case against former president Chiluba, his
commitment to Mwanawasa's anti-corruption legacy is doubtful.



5. (C) Comment. Although a Sata win would be a roller
coaster ride, it would represent the first transfer of power
since the end of one-party rule in 1991 and would be a step
forward for Zambian democracy - assuming that Sata would
respect the democratic principles that brought him into
power. Whoever the winner, the Embassy maintains good
contacts in both the Banda and Sata camps and is confident
that communication lines will remain open. Per reftel A,
Banda in particular was on message when the Ambassador
presented his credentials, and even Sata has expressed
enthusiasm for an Open Skies agreement with the U.S. - a
priority that has languished under the current
administration. One key will be to establish early contact
with a Banda or Sata administration in order to reaffirm the
USG commitment to a partnership with the GRZ and to send
messages on USG priorities. End comment.

BOOTH