ZAMBIAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE TIGHTENS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001033

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: ZAMBIAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE TIGHTENS


1. (SBU) Summary. New polling data suggest that opposition leader
Michael Sata has nudged ahead in the Zambian presidential race. The
poll, however, is based on a relatively small sample size that may
not adequately capture the opinions of Zambia's rural population.
The poll reinforces other anecdotal information that indicates the
race between Sata and Vice President Rupiah Banda, the previously
presumed front-runner, has tightened. Had the Electoral Commission
of Zambia (ECZ) fulfilled its legal requirement to conduct
continuous voter registration, the swell of younger voters might
have given Sata a more convincing lead over Banda. Recent incidents
of political violence point to heightened tension and warn of
additional isolated incidents of civil unrest. End Summary.

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Sata: The (Mis)Leading Candidate?
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2. (U) On October 30, Zambians will elect a leader to replace
President Mwanawasa, who passed away on August 19 after suffering a
stroke. Four candidates will compete on polling day, in a
first-past-the-post, simple majority system. The aspirants include
Vice President and "Acting President" Rupiah Banda (Movement for
Multiparty Democracy, MMD),Michael Sata (Patriotic Front, PF),
Hakainde Hichilema (United Party for National Development, UPND),
and Godfrey Miyanda (Heritage Party, HP). Miyanda gleaned less than
two percent of the vote in 2006 and is not considered a contender.


3. (SBU) The progress of the three leading candidates has been
difficult to gauge in the absence of polling data (three polls
presaged the 2006 presidential election; two accurately predicted
the outcome). According to the yet-to-be-released results of a poll
by the Steadman Group, a Kenyan based market information company,
Sata may be leading. Over 42 percent of the pollees said that if
elections were held today (October 11-15),they would vote for Sata,
compared to 29 percent for Banda and 17 percent for Hichilema.
Those polled identified leadership experience and honesty as the two
most important characteristics in deciding how to vote.


4. (SBU) In response to the question, "If elections were to be held
today, which candidate would you vote for?" the Steadman Group
received the following responses by province (in percentages):

Sata Banda Hichilema
-------------- -------------- --------------
Central 33 33 23
Copperbelt 39 25 11
Eastern 52 31 6
Luapula 65 12 3
Lusaka 45 26 14
Northern 60 16 11
Northwestern 23 28 20
Southern 10 33 44
Western 13 37 23


5. (SBU) The results, which will be released on October 23, may not
be based on a sample size large enough to be statistically
significant, nor do they likely capture the opinions of Zambia's
rural populations, which form the base of MMD's support. Although
Steadman conducted the poll in each of Zambia's nine provinces, this
only amounts to about 100 interviews per province--presumably
residents of provincial towns and cities, who may not adequately
reflect the views of "rural" voters. It seems most unlikely that
Sata's popularity in Eastern Province (Banda's home province) runs
at 52 percent, over twenty percentage points above Banda,
particularly as Sata campaigning in Eastern Province has been
negligible.


6. (SBU) Likewise, Sata's perceived popularity in Northwestern
Province may be misleading. Without having campaigned in
Northwestern before the poll, it is difficult to believe that his
popularity could have jumped up from two percent (the percentage of
votes that he gleaned in 2006) to 20 percent. However, Sata does
enjoy some popularity among miners (many of whom are migrant workers
from the Copperbelt region) in Solwezi, the provincial capital.
Nevertheless, the Steadman data suggest that Sata has diminished the
margin separating him from Banda and will be a strong contender in
what appears to be an increasingly tight race.

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Banda: The (Un)popular Choice?
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7. (SBU) Banda continues to enjoy broad but tepid support from an
unenthusiastic electorate that credits him and the MMD with a kind
of self-evident mandate (based on the 2006 election results) to
finish President Mwanawasa's five-year term. Banda also is using
government resources (helicopters) to reach rural areas and is
benefiting from the editorial bias of state-owned media. He has
deployed a cabinetful of campaign operatives to every corner of
Zambia. Since his nomination, he has been treating Zambians with
populist campaign promises, such as agricultural and fuel subsidies,
that through his office he can already begin fulfilling.

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8. (U) In 2006, MMD candidate Levy Mwanawasa managed to establish a
strong support base across the country. Even in his weakest
constituency, Southern Province, he succeeded in capturing 20
percent of the vote:

2006 Results
(candidates' share of provincial votes)
Sata Mwanawasa Hichilema
-------------- -------------- --------------
Central 14 59 24
Copperbelt 53 38 7
Eastern 11 43 38
Luapula 60 33 4
Lusaka 49 28 21
Northern 42 49 5
Northwestern 2 68 25
Southern 3 20 73
Western 7 75 12


9. (SBU) According to Embassy's calculations, based on 2006 results,
Banda can afford to lose popularity in much of the country if he can
sweep a strong majority of the votes in Eastern Province, which has
half a million voters. The MMD, however, are increasingly concerned
about voter turnout, particularly as MMD supporters appear far less
enthusiastic than their PF counterparts. Perhaps to encourage voter
turnout, the Zambian Government declared October 30 a national
holiday on October 22.

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Hichilema: Humdrum Appeal
--------------


10. (SBU) Although Hichilema may have maintained his popularity in
Western, Northwestern, and Central Provinces, he appears to have
made little headway. Whatever popularity he has managed to win
elsewhere is likely to be offset by losses in Eastern Province,
where Banda has been campaigning heavily. UPND's separation from
the United Democratic Alliance, which in 2006 brought in a great
deal of United National Independence Party (UNIP) support in its
Eastern Province base, further weakens Hichilema's position in that
part of the country.


11. (SBU) Despite two years of active campaigning, Hichilema's
lackluster, pecuniary image and highbrow platforms have made little
impression on a public that acknowledges his integrity, vision, and
talent, but considers these to be eclipsed by the young leader's
political inexperience. Zambians are simply not energized by his
pragmatic and technocratic approach, especially in the face of
subsidized fuel and food promises from other candidates. Some
Zambians also mistake his introversion for arrogance. Dismissing
Hichilema's candidacy entirely, the MMD is more worried about Sata's
appeal, particularly given the pulsating atmosphere of the PF's
jam-packed urban rallies.

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Disenfranchised Voters
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12. (U) Had the ECZ fulfilled its legal requirement to conduct
continuous voter registration since 2005, the swell of new voters
easily could have turned the tide in favor of the opposition
parties, whose constituencies are dominated by Zambians in their
twenties. (The Steadman poll showed that 43 percent of 18-24 year
olds preferred Sata, compared to 20 percent for Banda and 19 percent
for Hichilema.)


13. (SBU) A Dutch diplomat, who is working closely with (and partly
funding) the National Democratic Institute (NDI) to conduct a
parallel vote count, told poloff on October 22 that an NDI
representative had learned that although the ECZ had not performed
continuous voter registration, it had added as many as 20,000 names
to the voter rolls in recent months, a majority of which are Eastern
Province residents. Previously the ECZ had announced the addition
of 4,000 names, which it claimed were incorrectly removed in 2006.
According to the Dutch diplomat, the NDI rep, however, clarified
that the ECZ had removed names and added others, with a net result
of 4,000 additional names. If true, it demonstrates yet another
instance of ECZ's lack of transparency and sound judgment, and may
casts some doubt on its independence and integrity.

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Civil Unrest: Possible but Unlikely
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14. (SBU) According to several press reports, MMD cadres have
resorted to violence at MMD rallies in Chipata and Lusaka. Emboff
also heard reports of MMD violence at a Banda rally in Solwezi. The
hostility, which in each instance was directed at PF supporters,
points to the ostensible MMD fear of losing the election to PF. MMD
spokesperson Benny Tetamashimba allegedly threatened Eastern
Province residents that they would be "beaten up" if they did not

LUSAKA 00001033 003 OF 003


vote for Banda. In the meantime, PF representatives appear to be
bracing themselves to contest the election in the event that Sata
does not win. Its rejection of the election results could lead to
civil unrest similar to 2006. Hichilema has told emboffs on several
occasions that diplomats should not take Zambian peacefulness for
granted, as Zambians, he projected, are reaching the ends of their
tether. Although full-scale hostility seems unlikely, it is not
improbable and Embassy expects additional isolated incidents of
violence. (Note: Embassy will convene an EAC to discuss measures
to take given the possibility of election/post-election violence.)

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Comment
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15. (SBU) Final 2008 tallies are likely to be much closer than in
2006 (when Mwanawasa won 42 percent, Sata won 29 percent, and
Hichilema won 25 percent of the vote) with single-digit margins
separating the two leading candidates. Given the tightness of the
race, the ECZ will be under inordinate pressure to show transparency
and integrity in its management of the elections. In 2001, when
Mwanawasa beat UPND candidate Anderson Mazoka by about 35,000 votes,
irregularities and problems engendered distrust and suspicion that
linger to this day. UPND leadership still maintains that it won the
2001 (and 2006) election. Several instances of MMD on PF violence
by riled-up rally participants suggest that the close competition
may also be the source of increased tensions between the parties'
constituencies.

BOOTH