EMBASSY LUSAKA ELECTION OBSERVATION PLAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 001030

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ZA
SUBJECT: EMBASSY LUSAKA ELECTION OBSERVATION PLAN


1. (SBU) Summary and Comment. A recent poll indicates the October
30 presidential race could produce extremely tight results between
Acting President Rupiah Banda and Patriotic Front leader Michael
Sata. Had the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) fulfilled its
legal requirement to conduct continuous voter registration, the
swell of younger voters easily could have turned the tide in favor
of the opposition candidates; nevertheless Banda's incumbent
advantage is being whittled away by his lack of charisma. Polling
day is likely to be peaceful, orderly and free from any systematic
intimidation or coercion, but the ECZ has made few changes to avoid
the results management problems that plagued the 2006 general
elections and engendered so much distrust. The Embassy will deploy
31 accredited observers to six of Zambia's nine provinces to monitor
the conduct of election officials and party representatives and to
conduct parallel vote counts in some constituencies. EU missions
will field another 160 or so observers with whom we will be sharing
findings, but Embassy Lusaka does not plan to issue a statement on
the freedom and fairness of the election given our limited scope.
End Summary.

Deployment Plan
--------------


2. (U) Embassy Lusaka will deploy 31 accredited election observers
across six of Zambia's nine provinces between October 27 and October

31. In addition to observing the conduct at polling stations,
Embassy teams will monitor ballot tabulation at the polling station,
constituency centers, and district headquarters. Post will feed
these observations into its reporting and will share its data with
other diplomatic observers. Post intends to conduct a parallel vote
tabulation in as many as five constituencies by coordinating with
polling agents and manually tabulating the posted results within
constituency polling centers to verify that these are consistent
with ECZ's announcements.


3. (U) Other international observers include a strong contingent
from the European Union. Although the European Commission (EC)
could not deploy a full EC observation mission in the time given, it
has sent a handful of election experts to train and organize about
160 local diplomats from EU missions in Lusaka. Other institutions
planning informal observation missions include Japan (five
observers),Canada (three observers),the Electoral Institute of
Southern Africa (20 observers),the Common Market for Eastern and
Southern Africa (16 to 18 observers),and the Southern African
Development Community (100 observers). The Zambian Government
invited a team from the African Union, but there are no reports of
an AU team. In addition, the National Democratic Institute is
conducting a parallel voter tabulation program and conducting
training for polling agents, funded by the UK and Denmark.

Potential Pitfalls
--------------


4. (SBU) A recent Steadman Group Survey indicates that, despite
Acting President Banda having the incumbent's advantage, the race
between Sata and him could be extremely close (septel). Embassy
observer teams will be on the lookout for several potential
pitfalls, which could lead to election irregularities or create
tension among the parties and/or voters:


5. (SBU) Disenfranchised Voters: In the absence of legally mandated
continuous registration, Zambians who turned 18 after December 2005
(when the last voter registration was conducted) will be
disenfranchised. A visiting election observer from the EU estimated
the number disenfranchised youths to be between 300,000 and 400,000.
Considering that 19-20 year olds constitute about 6.5 percent of
the population, we believe that number actually could be as high as
650-750,000. In addition, voters who are unable to return to the
constituency where they were registered in December 2005 will be
barred from voting. Assuming an urbanization rate of approximately
three percent per year, this could translate to more than 200,000
voters. Considering that urbanites and youth form the backbone of
PF, these disenfranchised voters could prove decisive in a close
race.


6. (SBU) Vote Tabulation: In 2006, Zambia's 6,456 polling stations
were peaceful and orderly, but results management was questionable.
With inadequate training, presiding officers and other electoral
staff in most cases failed to reconcile ballots properly. There was
also inadequate accountability for the ballots once they were
consolidated in the constituencies. Although the ECZ has simplified
the polling station reconciliation process, it has made few other
changes since 2006 to avoid the problems that tainted the electoral
process. Although polling station results will be posted outside
polling stations, the ECZ does not intend to release these figures
or publish them on its website. An international election observer
trainer told poloff that the ECZ had refused to publish the
information and could provide no justification for refusing. "The
political will is not there," the election expert opined.


7. (SBU) In order to verify constituency figures, political parties
will be compelled to conduct parallel vote counts by coordinating

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with their polling agents at each individual polling station. This
will be difficult to do in some instances, given lack of cell phone
coverage and inadequate party infrastructure/organization. The
ECZ's lack of transparency will undoubtedly fuel charges by the
unsuccessful candidates that ballot figures were manipulated.

Comment
--------------


8. (SBU) Although there were isolated reports of electoral
malfeasance in 2006 (e.g., party affiliates attempting to buy voter
cards),post does not expect any systematic form of voter
intimidation or coercion this year. The primary problems may lie in
small-time political corruption (influencing voters by gift-giving),
defamation, biased media reporting, abuse of GRZ resources,
disenfranchisement, and perhaps results management/accountability.
The election credibility and peace will depend perhaps entirely on
the ECZ's ability to appear transparent, fair, and professional and
to satisfy voters that the reported results reflect a true
tabulation of what transpired at 9,314 polling streams across the
country on election day. Embassy Lusaka observer teams will be on
the lookout for issues that may detract from the credibility of the
elections but the Embassy does not plan to issue a public statement
about whether the elections are free and fair, given the limited
scope of our 16 teams.

BOOTH