PATRIOTIC FRONT OFFICIAL ALLEGES ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUSAKA 001028


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: PATRIOTIC FRONT OFFICIAL ALLEGES ELECTORAL
COMMISSION MALFEASANCE (C)

REF: LUSAKA 1023

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Booth, Reason 1.4 (b)


1. (C) Summary and Comment: The opposition Patriotic Front
(PF) has serious concerns about the Electoral Commission of
Zambia's (ECZ) handling of the October 30 presidential
by-election, according to Secretary General Edward Mumbi.
Mumbi claims the ballot printing operation was open to fraud,
noting that he and other party representatives were not
allowed to view the printing of numbered ballots, despite
promises to the contrary. Mumbi further noted that the
Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) decision to print
600,000 extra ballots was taken without consultation with
opposition parties. Mumbi also claimed the ruling Movement
for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) is working with the ECZ to
stuff ballot boxes, passing Poloffs a spreadsheet --
allegedly given to him by a party operative inside the ECZ --
showing ten constituencies where over 100,000 total votes are
to be added to the MMD's total. We do not believe this to be
credible (see para 7). While there are shortcomings related
to ballot printing, extra ballots and publication of results
at the polling station level, the gross vote rigging alleged
by PF is likely a tactic to position itself to contest the
results should PF not win. End summary.

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Ballot Printing Irregularities Alleged...
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2. (C) In an October 21 meeting with Poloffs, Secretary
General Edward Mumbi said that the ECZ badly mishandled the
printing of ballots for the presidential by-election, leaving
the process open to fraud. Mumbi and other party
representatives visited the ballot's printer, Uniprint, in
Durban, South Africa from October 2-8 in order to examine the
process by which the ballots were prepared and watch the
numbered ballots being printed on October 6th.


3. (C) The visit, however, did not proceed as planned.
According to Mumbi, he and other representatives were told on
the 6th that they would not see the ballots printed that day.
When they returned to Uniprint's offices on the 7th, the
Uniprint consultant told them that three million of the
ballots (approximately two-thirds) had been printed the
previous day with no party reps present. Mumbi and the
others were not allowed to examine the ballots, as they had
already been packaged. Hence, Mumbi noted, the reps were
unable to verify that the ballots had been properly serial
numbered, leaving the door open to electoral fraud.


4. (C) Mumbi also expressed concern at the ECZ's unilateral
decision to print 600,000 extra ballots in addition to the
approximately four million needed for the election. The
parties had never agreed to such a large number, believing
that only a few thousand extras (largely for spoiled votes
due to voter error) were necessary, given that voter turnout
is unlikely to be more than the nearly 2.8 million who voted
in 2006. (Note: The ECZ announced October 21 that the
parties had agreed nearly all of the extra ballots would be
kept in Lusaka rather than distributed to districts, a move
that limits the possibility for electoral skullduggery. A
Zambian Air Force aircraft will be on standby for delivering
the extra ballots if needed. End note.)

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...As Well As Outright Ballot Box Stuffing
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5. (C) Mumbi then produced to Poloffs a document that he
claims was given to him by a PF operative within the ECZ.
The spreadsheet listed all of Zambia's 150 constituences
(except for those of Southern Province, which were missing),
and next to ten of them were bold font print notations --
allegedly from ECZ officials -- claiming that votes would be
added for MMD candidate Rupiah Banda, sometimes identifying
specific polling areas where the votes would come from. The
constituencies and alleged MMD votes were:

--Vubwi (Eastern Province) 9,000
--Milanzi (Eastern Province) 10,679
--Mkaika (Eastern Province) 8,500
--Lundazi (Eastern Province) 11,600
--Malambo (Eastern Province) 4,543
--Mpongwe (Copperbelt Province) 12,765
--Nchelenge (Luapula Province) 10,098
--Chienge (Luapula Province) 12,780
--Mumbwa (Central Province) 11,009
--Chisamba (Central Province) 15,980

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National Party Agent Presence Uncertain
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6. (C) When asked whether PF would be able to deploy party
agents to all of the country's 6,456 polling stations -- a
move that would all but negate the possibility of large-scale
fraud -- Mumbi was non-committal. While he said that the
party had more than enough interested volunteers, it was
unclear at this point whether the party would have enough
money to pay and transport them, particularly to more rural
parts of the country. When pressed as to how much of the
country Mumbi thought PF would be likely to cover, the
Secretary General did not supply a straight answer.

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Comment
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7. (C) The numbers provided by Mumbi, when compared to
results of the 2006 presidential election, appear rather
fantastical. In seven of the ten constituencies, the votes
allegedly to be stuffed for the MMD this year dwarf the
totals late President Mwanawasa won as the MMD candidate in

2006. In Vubwi, just over 9,000 votes were tallied for all
candidates in 2006, making it very difficult for anyone to
stuff 9,000 additional votes into the ballot box with any
believability. Furthermore, the PF was trounced by both the
MMD and United Party for National Development (UPND) in all
but the two Luapula Province constituencies, suggesting the
numbers could be manufactured to save face ahead of a likely
crushing defeat in those constituencies. Nevertheless, we
will keep an eye on the constituencies in question in the
unlikely event that this year's results look drastically
different than those of 2006.


8. (C) Mumbi's claims of ballot stuffing and printing
opacity, however, neglect a more likely issue of concern--the
ECZ's refusal to publish station-by-station polling results.
If there is interference in the vote-counting process, the
most likely place for it to happen is when ballot boxes are
transported between the polling stations and the district
collating centers. Without a nationwide polling station
presence, the PF will be unable to verify that polling
station numbers add up through a parallel vote count. Of
course, this also could be part of the PF's own plan, using
fictitious resource constraints as an excuse for not
deploying agents to constituencies where they know the MMD or
UPND are likely to dominate, allowing them to lay the
foundation for claims of electoral malfeasance. Given the
rather outrageous and unsubstantiated stuffing allegations
already made, the latter scenario could very well be the case.


BOOTH