OFFICAL RESULT FOR 17 PROVINCES IN - LUANDA DELAYED

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUANDA 000723

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AO
SUBJECT: OFFICAL RESULT FOR 17 PROVINCES IN - LUANDA DELAYED

REF: A) LUANDA 697 B) LUANDA 700 C) LUANDA 704 D)
LUANDA 715

Classified By: AMB DAN MOZENA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The National Electoral Commission (CNE)
released final results for 17 of Angola's 18 provinces on
September 14; Luanda's results were withheld due to a
challenge from UNITA. The MPLA won all of the seventeen
provinces, taking over 80 percent of the vote in 12 of them.
UNITA has filed a last minute appeal to annul the electoral
results in Luanda, citing election day irregularities. Legal
experts believe the Court will deny the appeal, on the basis
that the irregularities did not materially affect the outcome
of the election. If the CNE denies the appeal, as expected,
the final vote tally and breakdown of seats in the new
National Assembly should be announced by September 20. END
SUMMARY

MPLA'S DECISIVE VICTORY
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2. (SBU) The CNE presented final provincial tallies for 17 of
18 provinces on September 14th, in accordance with electoral
law's call for provincial results within 10 days of the
election. The ruling MPLA won all 17 provinces, taking over
80 percent of the vote in 12 of the provinces. Lunda Sul was
the only province in which they failed to win at least 60
percent of the vote; the PRS (Angola's third-largest
opposition party, with strength in the Lundas) won 42 percent
in the remote, diamond-rich province. The MPLA's final
margin of victory remains in line with election-day counting
trends as observed by the Embassy's election observation team
in 5 provinces and, according to long-term EU election
observers who were present in all 18 provinces.

UNITA FILES AN APPEAL
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3. (SBU) The CNE is withholding Luanda's final tally, pending
resolution of a legal appeal submitted by UNITA to the
Constitutional Court on September 12. The appeal focuses on
the numerous electoral irregularities in Luanda (ref A),most
notably the late opening of many polling stations and the
CNE's failure to comply with legal voting procedures. UNITA
is requesting that the votes in Luanda be annulled and a new
election held. The CNE submitted its opinion on the case to
the court on September 16, and the Court has 72 additional
hours to make its ruling.


4. (C) Despite the legal challenge, UNITA has accepted the
overall results of the election. According to one UNITA
insider, the party's leadership is now wondering whether it
made a strategic error in accepting the results so quickly
(ref B),as it has undercut the party's complaint about the
logistical breakdown in Luanda on election day. The insider
said UNITA's leadership was disappointed by what it sees as
the failure of western election observation missions to
address these issues more forcibly.

COMMENT
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5. (C) COMMENT: We expect the Court to rule that the
electoral irregularities did not substantially affect the
results of the vote, and to uphold Luanda's results, an
outcome provided for under electoral law. Statements made to
the press by the spokesman of the Constitutional Court on
September 15, in advance of the court's ruling, support this
assessment. We think UNITA found itself between a rock and a
hard spot when confronted with the clear message that the
voters had repudiated the party, and may have chosen the best
of several unattractive alternatives. In accepting the
election results, UNITA demonstrated that it wants to play by
the rules of democracy; by lodging this formal, likely futile
complaint, UNITA put down a marker that such irregularities
are not acceptable and must be avoided in future elections.
Most now Angolans appear ready to move forward and are eager
to see their new government get to work. END COMMENT.
MOZENA