Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08LUANDA694
2008-09-04 20:29:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Luanda
Cable title:  

"THE ANGOLAN" ELECTORAL NEWS BULLETIN, VOL IV

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL AO 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5639
PP RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLU #0694/01 2482029
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 042029Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY LUANDA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5008
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000694 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AO
SUBJECT: "THE ANGOLAN" ELECTORAL NEWS BULLETIN, VOL IV

REF: LUANDA 0692 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: AMB DAN MOZENA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000694

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AO
SUBJECT: "THE ANGOLAN" ELECTORAL NEWS BULLETIN, VOL IV

REF: LUANDA 0692 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: AMB DAN MOZENA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) In This Issue:

- Logistics, Logistics, Logistics...

- MPLA Predicts Big Victory

- UNITA's Forecast for Bie

- PADEPA Rally Drowned Out by MPLA

- FpD, EU Observation Head Grounded by President dos Santos

- Rejected Poll Workers Angry, Confused

- Spot Report from Uige: FNLA on its Last Legs


Logistics, Logistics, Logistics...
--------------


2. (SBU) September 4, 2008 was filled with frantic activity
as election officials struggled to get the people and
materials in place for the September 5 legislative elections.
The large crowds of poll workers, party delegates, and civil
society observers waiting for credentials at municipal
election headquarters in many parts of the country made it
readily apparent that election officials underestimated the
tasks of credentialing poll station workers and moving them
to their respective stations. At one municipal election
headquarters in Benguela Province, our observation teams saw
Angolan military helicopters moving with election materials
and poll workers out to the field. A large crowd of people
sitting on suitcases filled the street as poll workers waited
for credentials and transport to remote polling stations;
poll workers said they anticipate staying in the field for
two to three days. In contrast, our Huambo team visited
several rural polling stations to find pre-positioned staff
and material; poll workers said they had been there for
several days and were sleeping in the station to protect the
ballots and other sensitive items.


3. (SBU) In an encouraging bit of on-the-spot decision making
and expediency, our observers report that some Huambo and
Uige municipalities have dispensed with the electronic
credentialing process for poll workers, party delegates and
civil society observers, and are instead issuing paper
credentials. While opposition leaders are quick to express
their frustration with the National Electoral Commission
(CNE) and its local entities, CNE officials in turn point out
that many political parties and observation groups waited
until the last minute to provide the documentation necessary

to be credentialed.


4. (C) In a discouraging development to reftel paragraph 5,
the USAID-funded Plataforma Eleitoral reported that as of
2150 on September 4, after two days of waiting with over 200
civil society observers at the CNE credentialing center, only
28 observers had been accredited and the rest had been
informed that they would not be accredited and should return
home. The Plataforma also reported that over 100 observers
had been accredited in Huambo.

MPLA Predicts Big Victory
--------------


5. (C) On September 4, P/E Assistant attended an ""off the
record" MPLA briefing for election observers in Luanda. At
the briefing, four members of the MPLA,s Bureau Politico
confidently predicted "without a doubt" the ruling party
would win a two-thirds majority in the September 5
legislative elections, and would then work to re-write the
constitution. One senior MPLA official said the party
expects its 3 million card-carrying members to vote MPLA, and
that an additional 1 million voters will also vote for the
party. The official added that UNITA should expect heavy
losses across the country. According to the presenters, the
source of the MPLA,s confidence comes from a series of
long-term polls conducted nationwide by the party that
indicate a big day is in store for the MPLA. Presenters
stated the CNE may release provisional results as early as
the afternoon/evening of Saturday September 6th.


6. (C) COMMENT: If voter turnout is high, as many observers
project, four million votes out of an electorate of over 8
million may not earn the MPLA a two-thirds majority. In
addition, MPLA membership is a prerequisite for employment in
many, if not most, rural areas, and civil society groups have
reported that even people wish to work as polling agents for
the elections were first required to join the MPLA. This

LUANDA 00000694 002 OF 002


leaves the true allegiance of the MPLA's card-carrying
members somewhat in doubt. END COMMENT

UNITA's Forecast for Bie
--------------


7. (C) In a meeting with our Bie observation team, UNITA's
Bie campaign team stated they will consider holding on to
four of the five provincial seats won in the 1992 election an
electoral victory for UNITA in the province. They further
predicted that either the MPLA or PRS, with the support of
the many Chokwe people who moved to Bie during the war, will
take the 5th seat.

PADEPA Rally Drowned Out by MPLA
--------------


8. (C) An EU Observer reported he was present at a PADEPA
rally on September 3 in Luanda. The rally was set up ion a
local soccer field, with a stage and area for supporters to
gather and participate in the party,s final gathering before
the end of the campaign. As the rally was set to begin, a
truck decked out in MPLA colors and flags drove onto the
field, and parked between the stage and the gathered PADEPA
supporters. MPLA supporters then began blasting loud music,
drowning out the PADEPA politicians. As PADEPA supporters
rushed to fisticuffs with the MPLA crew, the PADEPA leaders
pleaded for calm and a peaceful resolution to the potential
conflict. When police arrived, the MPLA supporters produced
authorization from the municipal government to demonstrate on
the soccer field until September 4, after the end of the
legislative campaign. The PADEPA crowd, which had no such
permit, was forced to abandon their rally. The incident
provides some independent verification to opposition parties'
complaints of MPLA interference in their rallies.

FpD, EU Observation Head Presidential Air Travel
-------------- ---


9. (C) FpD President Filmeno Viera Lopes lashed out at the
GRA's "scandalous" closure of airspace around the country
each time President dos Santos traveled to the provinces
during the campaign. The party noted several incidences in
which their leaders missed key rallies due to last-minute
flight cancellations when the airspace was closed with little
or no notice. The party mockingly called Angola a "country
which comes to a standstill in order for His Excellency, the
President of the Republic to fly." FpD is not the only group
to be affected; the head of the EU Observation Mission,
Louisa Morgantini, was stuck in Cabinda for "many hours" due
to the President's trip to Malange. Morgantini told Poloff
she intended to write an open letter to the President about
the closure, explaining that it "just isn't done." NOTE:
Airspace closures take place whenever the President travels,
not only during electoral campaigns. END NOTE.

Rejected Poll Workers Angry, Confused
--------------


10. (SBU) Our Benguela team reports that electoral
authorities in the province overestimated the number of poll
workers they would need, as approximately 35,000 were trained
and only 25,000 are being employed. The leaves 10,000 people
heading to the polls disgruntled by the loss of 200 USD per
day, plus food and transport. EU observers reported seeing a
"large crowd" of angry people, such that they dared not
approach, in front of a Luanda municipal headquarters
September 3rd; people at the periphery of the crowd told the
observers that people were angry to find they had not been
selected and were unsure how the CNE arrived at its decisions
of whom to employ.

Spot Report from Uige: FNLA on its Last Legs
--------------


11. (C) After meetings with MPLA, UNITA, and FNLA leaders in
Uige, our observation team reported a marked contrast between
the leadership and staff of Angola's three historic parties.
UNITA's leaders were "young and energetic," the MPLA's
leaders were "middle-aged and comfortable-looking," whereas
the FNLA's leaders and staffers were "old." The team bluntly
stated that, unless the FNLA finds a way to attract young and
vibrant leadership and supported, the party will die out -
both literally and figuratively - in the province in the next
five years.
MOZENA