"THE ANGOLAN" ELECTORAL NEWS BULLETIN, VOL VIII

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000692

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM AO
SUBJECT: "THE ANGOLAN" ELECTORAL NEWS BULLETIN, VOL VIII

REF: LUANDA 0687 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Classified By: AMB DAN MOZENA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D
)


1. (C) In This Issue:

- Parties Wrap Up Campaign Period

- UNITA Predicts Holding 3 Seats in Huambo

- Credentialing Problems for Observers and Monitors

- Insufficient Civic Education Creates Confusion in Benguela

- Possible SINFO Engagement in Electoral Process

- Villagers Eject Police, UNITA


Parties Wrap Up Campaign Period
--------------


2. (U) The mood in Luanda was festive on September 3rd, the
final day of the official 30-day campaign period. The GRA
called a last minute national holiday to "allow people to
fully participate" in the last day of campaigning, and
caravans of cars, trucks, and taxivans filled with chanting
supporters of various parties zoomed through city streets
throughout the day. Both the MPLA and UNITA have pulled out
all the stops in the past few days, filling the streets with
waving banners and party flags that had been noticeably
lacking through much of the campaign. Both MPLA President
Jose Eduardo dos Santos and UNITA President Isaias Samakuva
gave speeches closing their respective campaigns before
cheering crowds in Luanda. One reporter present at both
rallies told the Embassy that, while the MPLA crowd was
noticeably larger than UNITA's, it was nowhere near the
million supporters the party said it would rally. Notably,
Samakuva closed UNITA's campaign in Cazanga, a municipality
known as an MPLA stronghold, whereas Dos Santos and the MPLA
chose Cacuaco, an area known to swing towards UNITA. One
Embassy local staff member said with surprise "This would
have been unthinkable just a few years ago."


UNITA Predicts Holding 3 Seats in Huambo
--------------


3. (C) In a September 2 meeting, Alcides Sakala, a UNITA
parliamentarian and head of UNITA's Huambo campaign, told
said that his party has faced severe difficulties throughout
the campaign in UNITA's traditional heartland, namely
restricted access and destruction of the party's propaganda
materials. A "very tired" Sakala noted that traditional
leaders denied UNITA representatives access to over 320
villages in Huambo, and other traditional leaders told UNITA
they could not display a UNITA flag in their village.
Embassy observers were surprised to see very little UNITA
party propaganda in Huambo city; Sakala said the city had
been "covered" in UNITA material, but that it had all been
torn down by the youth wing of the MPLA (JMPLA) several days
prior. Sakala believes that the destruction was the result
of a "directive" issued to the JMPLA, rather than "kids being
kids." A contact at the Dutch Embassy confirmed that, during
a recent trip to Huambo, propaganda materials were widely
evident upon his arrival, but were almost all gone the
following day. He noted that the materials were torn down
after President dos Santos's visit to Huambo, and, therefore,
were not part of an attempt to "de-UNITA-fy" the city for the
President.


4. (C) Sakala posited that the purpose of the MPLA,s "fear
and intimidation" tactics was to promote absenteeism in
UNITA's traditional base. Despite this, he predicts his
party will hold on to three of their four seats in Huambo
following the September 5 elections. Of the other two seats,
he predicts one will go to the MPLA and one to a third party,
potentially PRS, PAJOCA, or PDP-ANA.

Credentialing Problems for Observers and Monitors
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) On September 3, representatives from civil society
and UNITA complained to the Embassy that the CNE is refusing
to credential their full cadre of electoral observers in
Luanda and Huambo provinces. According to officials with the
Plataforma Eleitoral, the national organization for civil
society election observers, the CNE notified the group that
their plan to credential 350 observers in Luanda was
"excessive" and that only 60 observers would be credentialed.
In Huambo, Alcides Sakala, head of UNITA's Huambo campaign

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Sakala, noted that UNITA is also having problems getting
credentials for UNITA election monitors in the province. He
admitted, though, that it was too early to tell if this is a
deliberate roadblock to their observation efforts, or simply
a logistical hitch caused by CNE's failure to deploy
technological assets sufficiently early.


6. (C) To clarify the CNE,s position, Ambassador Mozena
called Ambassador Joaquim Lemos, head of the CNE's
credentialing unit. Lemus assured the Ambassador that some
additional credentials would be issued to the Plataforma.
The Ambassador reminded Lemos that GRA actions to limit the
number of credentialed observers would affect the
international assessment of the credibility of Angola,s
electoral process.

Possible SINFO Engagement in Electoral Process
-------------- -


7. (C) A member of the EU observation mission privately
relayed to the Embassy her concerns regarding the GRA's
internal intelligence service (SINFO) possible involvement at
all levels of the electoral process. She was told by
"numerous, impeccable sources" that SINFO agents were being
employed as polling station workers and accredited as
political party monitors and civil society observers. The
SINFO agents are reportedly responsible for reporting vote
tallies directly to President dos Santos's election team. The
Embassy has heard similar reports from other sources in civil
society and from political party leaders in the provinces,
but cannot confirm SINFO involvement.

Insufficient Civic Education Creates Confusion in Benguela
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) In a meeting with local civil society organizations,
the Embassy Benguela Observation Team was told many residents
do not understand the electoral process and do not trust the
secrecy of the vote. According to these groups, who have
been doing civic education funded by UNDP, the separation of
the ruling MPLA and the state is so narrow that many citizens
believe that, as the government issued their voter
registration cards, they must for the MPLA.


9. (SBU) The team also reported seeing thick crowds of people
at CNE electronic kiosks, where people can swipe their
registration cards to confirm the location their assigned
polling station. Many people waiting held thick handfuls of
cards, and explained they were confirming polling stations
for neighbors, family, and friends. At one location two MPLA
trucks pulled up with several small boxes of cards... a savvy
way to make sure the party gets its supporters to the right
polling station on election day.

Villagers Eject Police, UNITA
--------------


10. (SBU) War memories linger in Benguela, according to the
EU's long-term observations in the province. They reported
villagers in a small southern village attacked both UNITA
representatives and their police escorts when the UNITA
delegation came calling. Evidently, during one particularly
memorable UNITA attack on the village in the 1990s, the
police fled and abandoned the villagers. The villagers, who
evidently haven't forgiven either group, briskly showed them
all to the city gates.
MOZENA