"THE ANGOLAN" ELECTORAL NEWS BULLETIN, VOL VII

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000687

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AO
SUBJECT: "THE ANGOLAN" ELECTORAL NEWS BULLETIN, VOL VII

REF: LUANDA 0666 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: AMB DAN MOZENA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (U) In This Issue:

- UNITA Accuses MPLA of Political Violence and Intimidation

- Dos Santos Notes MPLA's Past Failures

- An Odd Twist to the MPLA Campaign

- Small Parties Run Out of Steam

- Walking the tightrope...


UNITA Accuses MPLA of Political Violence
--------------


2. (SBU) According to UNITA, the MPLA has stepped up its
efforts to harass, threaten, and intimidate UNITA supporters.
In an August 29 teleconference with international reporters,
UNITA Spokesman Adalberto Costa Jr. said MPLA supporters have
killed four UNITA supporters in the past week; one each in
Bie, Huambo, Luanda, and Kuando Kubango. He added that
nineteen UNITA members were injured in a clash with MPLA
supporters in Benguela province following a UNITA rally. For
its part, the MPLA calls the incidents "accidents" or blames
them on drunken arguments that flaired out of control, rather
than an organized campaign of violence.


3. (C) Though Bloomberg News picked up the story, a Reuters
reporter told the Embassy that his and other news agencies
had decided not to report the story, as they believed it
lacked credibility. In UNITA's teleconference, Costa admitted
there were drunk people acting irresponsibly at the rallies,
and there was no way to prove that they were MPLA-initiated
attacks.


4. (C) On August 25, Costa told the Embassy UNITA believes
the MPLA is increasingly using the JMPLA, the party's youth
wing, and SINFO (Information Services, an internal
intelligence agency),to provoke and intimidate UNITA
supporters. He said the supporter killed in Bie on August 23
was run down and killed by a car closely tailing a parade in
honor of a visit by UNITA President Isaias Samakuva; the car
was reportedly driven by a SINFO agent. He also noted that
the killings have not been reported in State media outlets.
UNITA believes the political violence is a reflection of the
MPLA's realization that its support is lower than
anticipated; if it were fully confident of a landslide
victory, it would not need to resort to such tactics.

Dos Santos Notes MPLA's Past Failures
--------------


5. (SBU) In a move that surprised many long-time dos Santos
watchers, the President acknowledged during recent visits to
several provinces (septel) that the contrast between Angola's
low social indicators and massive oil and diamond revenue is
an easy target for the opposition. In Lunda Norte he urged
voters to support a party (his) which "already has
experience, has already erred and knows how it erred and is
correcting those errors." In Benguela he joked that voters
should distinguish between "who has lied MORE, who has failed
MORE." These comments indicate the MPLA is well aware that
they cannot ignore voter frustration.

An Odd Twist to the MPLA Campaign
--------------


6. (C) During August 22 remarks to provincial officials in
Saurimo, capital of diamond-rich Lunda Sul, President dos
Santos lamented that (undefined) "powers" seek to take
Africa's natural resources at low prices so Africa remains
dependent forever. He added that Africans sometimes cannot
perceive this reality because "other powers" and more
developed countries control the "means of social and cultural
communications." Changing tack, he regretted that some
African leaders (undefined) have turned their backs on their
people and are not able to lead their countries. Dos Santos
then discussed intentional campaigns against African leaders,
many of whom are taken to international courts "under the
pretext of violating this or that, when such violations do
not occur only in Africa." He finished by lamenting that
Africans are "under the negative influence of the powerful
means of social communications that seek to distance the
masses from their leaders." The speech was reported
matter-of-factly by all state media, but otherwise has
resonated little and has not introduced new themes into the
ongoing electoral campaign.


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7. (C) COMMENT: Seemingly old habits die hard; both the
concepts and language of the speech harken back to the siege
mentality of Angola's socialist era. It is encouraging,
however, that these themes have fallen flat, with neither the
MPLA nor any of the opposition parties engaging on them
following the President's remarks. END COMMENT

Small Parties Run Out of Steam
--------------


8. (SBU) What little propaganda steam opposition parties had
pumped up is rapidly ebbing as they run out of materials and
finances to supply provincial campaigns. With the exception
of UNITA, all the other opposition parties are having serious
logistical problems and most cannot mount serious campaigns
outside of Luanda.


9. (C) PAJOCA president Alexandre Andre told the Embassy he
plans to concentrate what little capacity the party has left
in Luanda, in the hope of getting more bang for the buck. He
said the party had overestimated how far their 1.2 million
USD in government-provided campaign financing would go in
Angola, where an entire province's allocation of party
t-shirts and other propaganda materials can easily be swiped
up in one rally by uncommitted voters simply needing a shirt
on their back. Andre believes that focusing campaigns on
Luanda's frustrated voters will likely be the saving grace
for many small opposition parties that have seen their
chances in the other provinces thin out as campaigns gobble
up limited available resources.

Walking the tightrope...
--------------


10. (C) Well before the August 5 start of the official
campaign period, senior leaders of both the MPLA and UNITA
noted to the Ambassador their respective observations that
the U.S. Embassy was favoring the other side. MPLA stalwart
Paulo Jorge had told the Ambassador that he had heard
"rumors" in the provinces that the Embassy was supporting its
long time friend UNITA. Meanwhile, UNITA leader Isaias
Samakuva had told the Ambassador that he and others in the
opposition had heard that the Embassy was supporting the MPLA
in the name of "continuity." Interestingly, neither side has
repeated these allegations in the past month, which the
Embassy takes as a good sign that we've kept our balance on
the political tightrope.
MOZENA