Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08LUANDA593
2008-08-04 18:27:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Luanda
Cable title:  

GRA HOPES FOR NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT IN PRETORIA TO

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL ZI AO 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3020
PP RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLU #0593 2171827
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 041827Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY LUANDA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4938
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L LUANDA 000593 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ZI AO
SUBJECT: GRA HOPES FOR NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT IN PRETORIA TO
ZIM CRISIS

REF: LUANDA 0518

Classified By: AMB DAN MOZENA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUANDA 000593

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ZI AO
SUBJECT: GRA HOPES FOR NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT IN PRETORIA TO
ZIM CRISIS

REF: LUANDA 0518

Classified By: AMB DAN MOZENA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In an August 4th meeting with Ambassador
Mozena, Angolan Foreign Minister Joao Miranda expressed hope
that the ongoing negotiations between Zimbabwe's ruling
ZANU-PF and opposition MDC parties would result in a
power-sharing agreement. Absent such an agreement, Zimbabwe
could experience a military coup, which would then
destabilize the region. Miranda detailed the GRA's
continuing efforts to calm the security forces and resolve
the crisis through open dialogue and "quiet diplomacy" with
GOZ and ZANU-PF senior leaders. END SUMMARY

Stability Trumps All
--------------


2. (C) Miranda expressed confidence that a negotiated
settlement will emerge from the negotiations now underway in
Pretoria, stating "there is no other way" forward. Miranda
agreed with the Ambassador that any transitional government
must reflect the will of the Zimbabwean people and must be
committed to reform. Referring to Zimbabwe's near-complete
economic collapse, he said "a change of government alone will
not restart the economy," and that any changes in the
leadership of the security services must only be implemented
gradually to maintain stability.


3. (C) Miranda said the largest threat to the current
negotiations comes from Zimbabwe's increasingly nervous
military. He said the EU's targeted sanctions on many active
and former military leaders further isolates regime power
brokers, and may push them to more extreme actions to keep
power. He believes the international community needs to
"work smart" to calm the fears of the security services,
create a constructive environment for dialogue, and avoid
brinksmanship that could precipitate a coup. NOTE: Miranda
has repeatedly called for an end to the sanctions in his
media interviews. END NOTE

Engaging in Constructive Dialogue
--------------


4. (C) Miranda noted that the Zim crisis has the potential to
spread and destabilize the entire region. This obligates the
GRA to help. While the GRA is not directly involved in the
ongoing negotiations in Pretoria, GRA representatives serve
on the SADC technical team supporting the negotiations.
Miranda said the immediate crisis started when ZANU-PF
refused to even consider that it might lose the March 29
election. Then, when it did, Miranda said, party militants
"lost their heads." Miranda said the GRA "had the courage"
to hold private, yet blunt, conversations with GOZ and
ZANU-PF leaders, advising them to be objective about their
ability to govern effectively in the current environment.
Miranda believes that the GRA's own long history of civil
strife gives it credibility with the GOZ, and said he often
uses Angola's painful history to point out the futility of
civil war to GOZ officials.


5. (C) This open dialogue is far from easy; Miranda
repeatedly called Zimbabwe's senior officials "difficult" and
painted a picture of a GOZ that does not even trust senior
leaders to attend meetings alone. During a SADC meeting on
Botswana's proposal to suspend Zimbabwe from SADC, the
Zimbabwean Foreign Minister told Miranda he could only attend
in the company of two other Ministers. Miranda also said the
GRA's work with Zimbabwe has remained at the level of
dialogue, rather than other forms of assistance. He said the
GRA and South African Government had offered to send advisors
to train Zimbabwean police and investigate complaints of
police abuses before the June runoff election. However,
Mugabe flatly declined Miranda's offer.


6. (C) COMMENT: Miranda's comments square with the GRA's
actions to date (reftel). He made clear the GRA view that
stability in the region outweighs all other factors in the
Zim crisis. However, Miranda's "quiet diplomacy" reflects
the GRA's pragmatic assessment of how best to engage
Zimbabwe's difficult and irrational regime. END COMMENT
MOZENA