AS ELECTIONS APPROACH... WILL ANGOLA BE READY?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LUANDA 000556

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AO
SUBJECT: AS ELECTIONS APPROACH... WILL ANGOLA BE READY?

REF: LUANDA 0555

Classified By: AMB DAN MOZENA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: With Angola's legislative elections (the
first in 16 years) only 45 days away, the National Election
Commission (CNE) has made impressive progress in making
arrangements for the polls, but daunting challenges remain.
Challenges include timelines required to print and distribute
the ballots before the September 5 election day, hiring and
training the tens of thousands of personnel needed to staff
over 13,000 polling stations, and establishing reliable
communication links with polling stations in isolated areas
of this huge country. Despite theses and other issues,
USAID-sponsored NGO's working with the CNE, various political
parties, and civil society as they prepare for elections
agree that that the election process will be largely peaceful
and credible, though the playing field will hardly be level
given the ruling party's huge incumbent advantage of
incumbency. Even the leader of the main opposition party is
generally positive about the election process. END SUMMARY

THE ELECTION COMMISSION'S PERSPECTIVE
--------------


2. (C) During a July 15 meeting with the Ambassador, CNE
President Caetano de Sousa declared that "almost everything
is now ready for the elections," noting that the CNE has
received almost all shipments of election materials and that
work is underway to organize and train the people needed to
staff the polling stations. Queried about possible
challenges, Caetano offered communications as his biggest
problem at the moment. He said the CNE has already set up
communication links from municipal headquarters to provincial
capitals and on to Luanda, but he seeks to expand this net
and create redundant capacity for reporting results by
providing each of the over 13,000 polling stations its own
direct telecommunication link with the provincial capital and
Luanda. He was not sanguine, however, that he would succeed
in this endeavor. Asked about access to localities where
roads are still impassable due to landmines and destroyed
bridges, Caetano waved away the problem, declaring that the
CNE would have sufficient mobility by air to get to all such
locations.


3. (C) Caetano was clearly uncomfortable in addressing the
Ambassador's concerns regarding whether there would be enough
time to print and distribute millions of paper ballots across
the country. The Ambassador noted the contradiction between
the demand by the Spanish printing/ distributing company for
a minimum of 60 days to complete the task on the one hand,
and the likelihood that the final roster of eligible parties
and coalitions and their respective positions on the ballots
(as determined by a lottery) would not be known until early
August on the other hand. The complicating factor is the
time required for the Constitutional Court's assessment of
whether parties have satisfied requirements to be included on
the ballots (due July 22),the 10 day "complaint" period for
excluded parties, and the 2 days needed to conduct the
lottery. With a grim smile, Caetano acknowledged the
question as "a good one," adding that somehow the CNE would
negotiate an accommodation with the printer. When queried
whether the CNE would need to postpone the elections to allow
more time to print and distribute ballots, Caetano responded
with a swift negative.


4. (C) When asked about the European Union's frustration
over the GRA's failure to sign two MOU's needed before the EU
could dispatch its electoral observation mission to Angola,
Caetano was dismissive of the EU's concerns. He asserted
that Angolan law already provided the assurances sought by
the EU and noted the GRA does not want to establish a
precedent for signing MOU's with all international observers.
Caetano added that the CNE will provide all observers access
to information, ensure safety and security, and an issue a
kit for observers. In response to the ambassador's query
about getting credentials for Embassy observers, Caetano said
the CNE would invite international organizations to observe
and the Embassy would receive needed information "next week."
(NOTE: Ambassador's follow-up conversation with European
Commission Acting Head of Delegation Robert Holder revealed a
different take on the situation, declaring the MOU's are
under "intense discussion," and are essential if the
observers are to do their work credibly. He cited as an
example the prohibition under Angolan law of the observers
moving freely anywhere at any time. The observers could not
do their oversight credibly unless the conditions were
clearly defined at the outset, a lesson Holder said the EU
learned the hard way in Nigeria and Mozambique. END NOTE)

ANOTHER VIEW FROM INSIDE THE CNE TENT
--------------

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5. (C) According to the American NGO IFES, the only NGO
invited by the CNE to help them prepare for the elections,
the CNE is moving ahead "very diligently" to organize
credible elections, but is lagging behind its own timetable.
During a July 14th meeting with the Ambassador, IFES staff
said the CNE had established offices in all provincial
capitals and in most of the nation's 163 municipalities.
IFES played a major role in developing the integrated
logistics plan that details all prerequisites for conducting
the elections. In comparison with IFES experience in other
African countries the CNE is moving ahead well in some areas,
such as setting up a massive operations center at the modern
Talatona Convention Center, identifying the locations of the
13,000 polling stations, and procuring the election kits
needed to set up each polling station. In other areas,
however, the CNE is seriously behind, such as training the
personnel needed to staff the four voting booths at each of
the 13,000 stations. Even more concerning is the seeming
lack of sufficient time to print and distribute the estimated
11 million ballots, a problem the Ambassador subsequently
raised directly with Caetano, as reported above.


6. (C) Despite the many challenges, IFES staff remain
hopeful the process will produce credible elections. They
report "a lot of goodwill at the CNE" and "no indications
from any of the political parties that they would undermine
the process." The two-person IFES team currently here will
shortly be increased by four more experts to assist with
advising the CNE. The head of IFES in Angola said IFES has a
"very good relationship" with CNE and is now being made to
feel welcome and part of the CNE team.

THE VIEW FROM THE GROUND LEVEL
--------------


7. (C) During a July 18 working dinner hosted by the
Ambassador with several key NGO's that are engaged in
grassroots election preparations throughout the nation
(National Democratic Institute, International Republican
Institute, and Development Workshop),a consensus quickly
emerged that the coming elections would be peaceful. None
discerned evidence of any political party seeking to
influence the political process through an orchestrated
campaign of violence or overt physical intimidation. They
acknowledged, however, that there likely could be scattered
incidents of localized violence, which would not influence
the overall credibility of the elections. The NGO
representatives predicted that voter turn-out for the
elections would be high, though the electorate so far lacks
the idealism, hope, and interest that had characterized the
nation's first elections in 1992, which had been witnessed
first-hand by several at the dinner.


8. (C) One NGO representative who had been deeply involved
in the 1992 electoral process noted that if the former
election is any guide, the 30 day formal campaign period
immediately before the September 5 polling would have an
significant impact on how people vote, thus complicating
efforts now to assess the likely election outcome. The
situation is further complicated in rural areas by the
unknown impact of the traditional leaders (sobas) who are
selected and paid by the government, which is synonymous with
the ruling party in the eyes of many (reftel).

THE VIEW FROM OPPOSITION PARTY HEADQUARTERS
--------------


9. (C) In a July 3rd meeting with the Ambassador, UNITA
President Isaias Samakuva spent more time discussing UNITA's
concerns with a proposal, which was later rejected (septel),
to extend elections to two days than discussing any other
component of his campaign. When pressed for what his other
concerns might be, Samakuva ventured that campaign financing
was always an issue, as was striking the right balance
between a vocal, active opposition party which raises
legitimate concerns and hitting a strident tone that reminds
voters of the party's more militant past. Samakuva expressed
his belief that Angolans are excited about elections due to
their desire for change, which he predicts will drive voters
to the polls to the benefit of his party.


10. (C) COMMENT: The coming elections, like so much else
that the GRA does, will be cobbled together somehow in the
end, and we can comfortably predict delayed polling station
openings in some areas, supply shortages, ill-trained
personnel staffing the stations, and confused, frustrated
voters. Whether these logistical snags will be sufficiently
pervasive to undermine the credibility of the elections
remains to be seen, but interestingly all of our NGO
interlocutors are upbeat about the elections, assessing that
in the end, despite predictable blemishes and shortcomings,

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the elections will be credible. Of course, whether the
electoral playing field will be level is a different
question. Given the ruling party's virtual monopoly on the
nationwide electronic, radio, and print media, its widespread
patronage system right down to the village level, its deep
pockets, and all the other perks of incumbency, the political
playing field in Angola is far from level. Nonetheless, if
Angola's elections are indeed peaceful and credible as
expected, that would be an important step in bolstering the
nation's emerging democratic institutions, setting the stage
for presidential and local elections over the next two years,
and giving the world an example of African elections that
work. END COMMENT
MOZENA