Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08LONDON1449
2008-05-23 13:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy London
Cable title:  

UK BY-ELECTION RESULTS PORTEND BIG PROBLEMS FOR

Tags:  PGOV PREL UK 
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PP RUEHBW RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLO #1449/01 1441321
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231321Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8734
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 001449 

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/WE, NSC FOR BRADLEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL UK
SUBJECT: UK BY-ELECTION RESULTS PORTEND BIG PROBLEMS FOR
GORDON BROWN AT NEXT GENERAL ELECTION

REF: LONDON 1147 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: DCM Richard LeBaron, reasons 1.4 b, d

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 001449

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/WE, NSC FOR BRADLEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL UK
SUBJECT: UK BY-ELECTION RESULTS PORTEND BIG PROBLEMS FOR
GORDON BROWN AT NEXT GENERAL ELECTION

REF: LONDON 1147 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: DCM Richard LeBaron, reasons 1.4 b, d


1. (C/NF) Summary. For the first time in 30 years, the UK's
Conservative Party has taken back a parliamentary seat from
the Labour Party, winning a huge upset victory in the May 22
Crewe and Nantwich by-election. By giving David Cameron's
Tories 49 percent of the vote - as opposed to 31 percent for
Labour and 15 percent for the Liberal Democrats - voters
appear to be sending three messages to the government: 1)
they are deeply unhappy about the economy, and PM Gordon
Brown is largely to blame; 2) they are not just anti-Brown,
but pro-Cameron; and 3) after 11 years of Labour government,
it's time for a change. The election result is yet another
massive setback for Brown, but he is not going to fall absent
a massive internal Labour Party rebellion - which, if it
happens, will probably not happen until the autumn. In the
meantime, if these election results are any indication, the
Tories will easily win a majority at the next general
election. End summary.

What Happened, And Why
--------------


2. (SBU) Labour was resoundingly defeated in the May 22
Crewe and Nantwich by-election, which was held after the
April 17 death of incumbent Labour MP Gwyneth Dunwoody.
Dunwoody, a Labour party stalwart, had held the seat since
1974, achieving reelection in 2005 with a majority of 7,078;
before that, Labour had held the seat since World War II.
But Labour saw this majority wiped out by the Conservative
Party, which took the seat with its own majority of 7,860 - a
17.6 percent swing. Voter turn-out was high at 58.2 percent,
almost the same level as a general election. This was the
first time in 30 years that the Tories have won a seat from
Labour.


3. (SBU) In the immediate aftermath of the election,
officials from both sides, as well as political analysts and
media pundits, attributed the Tory landslide to widespread
dissatisfaction with the state of the economy. Some cited a
crisis in consumer confidence caused by a drop in housing
prices and job security and a rise in oil prices. Others

pointed to the anger and disaffection caused by HMG's
handling of changes to the tax rates that have left the
poorest income earners worse off (reftel).

Why Does It Matter?
--------------


4. (C/NF) This is just one by-election, in one constituency,
so why does this result matter? Some Labour officials point
out that by-election results are almost always
anti-government, and that popular sentiment historically
swings back to the party in power near a general election.
But these results matter because:

-- Labour didn't just lose this election - the Tories won.
This contest was billed for weeks as a test of Brown's
leadership, so the electorate was in no doubt about its
significance. Traditionally, Labour voters looking to send a
message to their leadership have stayed home, or voted for
the third party Liberal Democrats, rather than vote for the
Tories. The high turn out, and the poor LibDem showing, is a
strong indicator that this was not just a protest vote. This
election appears to be not just a vote against Brown, but for
the Tories, who at last seem to be reemerging from the long
shadow cast by the end of the Thatcher era and John Major's
premiership.

-- The Tories could be headed for a landslide in the next
general election. The overwhelming size of the victory is
hugely significant. Based on the sizable majority Dunwoody
had before her death, the Tories estimated that Crewe and
Nantwich was the 165th most vulnerable Labour seat. The fact
they won so handily in such a secure Labour stronghold is
dire news for Gordon Brown and Labour. Sky News projects
that if the same swing percentage of 17.6 percent from Labour
to Tory were to apply across the board in the general
election, the Tories would win 494 seats in Parliament,
Labour 101, and the LibDems 25 - a huge 338 seat majority for
David Cameron.

-- Gordon Brown's fall continues. Brown actually had a good
week prior to the by-election, managing to depoliticize the
controversial Human Embryology and Fertilization Bill and win
on all the bill's measures, including maintaining the legal

LONDON 00001449 002 OF 002


limit for abortion at 24 weeks and authorizing the use of
animal-human hybrid embryos for research purposes. This
election wipes out any small gains Brown might have made and
adds to his already long list of woes (reftel).

Comment: Is Gordon Brown Going to Fall?
--------------


6. (C/NF) Will Brown fall? The answer in the short- to
medium-term is no. Brown cannot be forced out unless he
chooses to go. This could only be achieved by a massive
internal Labour Party revolt. In the aftermath of this
by-election, Labour Party insiders are telling us the party
will try to rally around the PM. Senior Labour officials
have admitted to us that the incessant back-stabbing of Brown
within the party and to the media has not helped Labour
overall, and that this needs to stop. Nonetheless, many
Labour MPs will undoubtedly spend quite a few sleepless
nights worrying about their own constituencies in the face of
the Crewe and Nantwich rout. Parliament is in recess now,
but will reconvene next week for about a month before
adjourning for the summer on July 22. During that period,
MPs will probably try to rally around Brown publicly, while
pressing him and other senior officials for a serious change
in strategy. If the polls don't change, however, Brown could
face a challenge to his leadership come the autumn, probably
centering on the Labour Party's fall conference September
20-24 in Manchester.


7. (C/NF) The electorate also appears to be eager for
change, and Brown needs to be able to answer that call. His
strategy on controversial measures up to now has been to
stick to his guns while asking the electorate to trust that
he knows best. He employed this tactic to counter anger at
his refusal to give policemen, firemen and other first
responders a raise commensurate with the cost of living in
2007, and to consider any changes to the new tax rate
structure, which he stubbornly refused for weeks to review
before suddenly reversing course in the face of a serious
back bench rebellion. This is clearly no longer working.
David Cameron has called the election results "the death of
New Labour," and while a pronouncement of death is clearly
premature, Brown will certainly be seeking a new approach to
contain the damage and seize back the initiative.


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