MAY 1 ELECTIONS: BROWN IS BLUE AND CAMERON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 001241

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV UK
SUBJECT: MAY 1 ELECTIONS: BROWN IS BLUE AND CAMERON
EMERGES VICTORIOUS

REF: LONDON 2203

Classified By: Pol Min Couns Maura Connelly, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C/NF) Summary. Prime Minister Gordon Brown is facing
heavy losses in his first electoral test since becoming Prime
Minister. With two thirds of the results counted from
yesterday's local council elections in England and Wales,
projections put Labour at just 24 percent of the total vote;
this result will be the Labour Party's worst for more than 40
years. The big winners were the Conservatives, who are
projected at 44 percent of the vote, a result, which in a
Parliamentary election, would give the Tories a majority in
the Commons. The London Mayoral results are to be announced
during the evening May 2; Tory Boris Johnson is the expected
winner. While the media may speculate, it is unlikely that
Labour MPs will move to unseat Brown as party leader ) in
part because there is no apparent successor standing in the
wings and Labour knows that intra-party squabbling would
further weaken the party in the public's opinion ) there is
unhappiness and anger with the Prime Minister among the MPs
with whom we spoke today. Labour MPs will want to see yet
more changes in Brown's communications and political strategy
team as well as new policies targeted at addressing the
economic fears that were cited in exit polls as most voters,
major concern. End summary.

Unhappy Labour MPs
--------------


2. (C/NF) The results in yesterday's voting for 4000 local
council seats in England and Wales were, according to one
loyal Labour MP, were a &disaster for the Party.8 After
eleven years in power, Labour understands that voters use the
mid-term local elections as a mechanism to register a
protest, but with the departure last year of former PM Tony
Blair, whose support for the Iraq War was believed to have
dragged down support for Labour, the Party had hoped this
year would be different under the new leadership of Gordon
Brown. Still the Party played down expectations: in local
elections last year, the Party polled its lowest results for
decades at 27 per cent, a result which increased the pressure
on then-Prime Minister Blair to name the date of his
departure. A year on and Labour's stated aim had been to
match or top last year's showing ) but in the end even that
goal proved too optimistic as the party polled its lowest
figures since the 1960s.


3. (C/NF) While the media may speculate, it is unlikely that
Labour MPs will move to unseat Brown as party leader ) in
part because there is no apparent successor standing in the
wings and Labour knows that intra-party squabbling would
further weaken the party in the public's opinion ) there is
unhappiness and anger with the Prime Minister among the MPs
with whom we spoke today. Labour MPs say they want the Prime
Minister to start listening to them and their constituents
and will put pressure on Brown to show that he can turn
things around before the next general election, expected in

2010. MPs report that voters didn't raise any local issues
during this campaign, only national issues ) the cutting of
the 10 per cent starting rate of tax, the economic fall out
from the so-called &credit crunch8 and the number of
immigrants arriving from Eastern Europe ) all problems for
which voters blame the Prime Minister. At a minimum, Labour
MPs will want to see yet more changes in Brown's
communications and political team, as well as new policies
targeted at addressing the economic fears that were cited in
exit polls as most voters' major concern. Brown may shake up
the cabinet, although his advisors had been quoted in the
press prior to the vote that a reshuffle was unlikely because
it was not Brown's style and would show &more desperation8
than a bad vote result in the local elections justified.

Tories Win Big, But London Mayor Still to Be Announced
-------------- --------------


4. (C/NF) While giving a bloody nose to Labour, voters
delivered sweeping gains to the Conservatives, revitalizing
the Party with what is projected to be 44 per cent of the
total popular vote. David Cameron should be delighted with
his party's projected showing -- a 40 per cent share had been
flagged by the UK media as the magic figure the Conservative
Party needed to win to be able to claim it was on track to
win the next Parliamentary election, and in the end the
Tories exceeded that figure. David Cameron called it a &big
moment8 for the Party, which also broke through into the
North of England where it has traditionally been weak,
winning the big northern city councils in Bury and North
Tyneside. Despite the Party's success, which would give the
Conservatives a resounding majority if repeated at a general

LONDON 00001241 002 OF 002


election, Cameron struck a note of modesty telling his
supporters the Tories cannot afford to hope that Labour's
failings will be enough to guarantee future victories.


5. (C/NF) Prime Minister Brown is bracing himself for more
bad news tonight when the results of the London Mayoral race
are announced. It has been neck and neck during the campaign
between the present Mayor, Labour's Ken Livingstone, and his
Conservative rival, Boris Johnson (ref). Early exit polls
suggest that turnout in London has been very high and that
Johnson is the likely winner. Aides to the Prime Minister
have been downplaying the significance of a Tory win in
London -- the campaign has been dominated by personalities --
but they know that a lot is at stake here: both parties have
thrown time and money at the London Mayoralty campaign and a
Conservative win would enable the party to claim that it is
now finally a credible alternative to Labour throughout the
country. London is the jewel in the UK political crown and,
as several of the London MPs with whom we have spoke have
told us, a Tory victory for Johnson would give the Tories
psychological momentum, as well as a logistical advantage in
getting the vote out in London during the next general
election.

Disappointment for the Liberal Democrats
--------------


6. (C/NF) The new Leader of the Liberal Democrats, Nick
Clegg, said his party had &confounded expectations8 in this
year's local elections, gaining 25 per cent of the vote share
and beating Labour into third place. Although Clegg insisted
that the party is ®aining momentum,8 in reality the
result is a mixed one and certainly wasn't the political
breakthrough the party hoped to achieve under its new leader.
Although the Liberal Democrats achieved some big wins in
cities like Sheffield (Clegg's own constituency),they also
lost some big local town halls ) and the result is still a
long way off the Party's record 30 per cent vote share won
back in 2004. That triumph came on the back of the Party's
vocal ) and popular ) opposition to the Iraq War. But with
the war no longer the political hot potato it once was, the
Party has struggled to find another policy which resonates as
successfully with voters.

Comment
--------------


7. (C/NF) Speaking this morning, Gordon Brown said he
would learn lessons, reflect and move forward. And with two
years before an election is due, he has the time to do so.
But there is no doubt that the pressure is now on Brown.
This morning he blamed the state of the economy ) but as the
man in charge of the economy for the past ten years, voters
are blaming him for their economic fears. One MP said, &we
need some good news from Brown. He needs to mark out some
new policies and introduce some radical, eye-catching
initiatives. The voters need to know what he stands for.8


8. (C/NF) Local elections are notoriously unreliable as a
barometer for general elections. Voters know they can safely
register a protest vote in the hope it administers a wake-up
call to a tired administration. Yet Labour MPs know that if
this had been a general election, many of them would have
lost their seats. And the Conservative Party will be pleased
that it has finally regained a foothold in the North of
England, just as Labour is losing its grip in the South of
England.
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