UK EXPECTS THE BALKANS TO DOMINATE APRIL GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 001172

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN ZL PK ZI IR IS CH BM UK
SUBJECT: UK EXPECTS THE BALKANS TO DOMINATE APRIL GAERC
DISCUSSION

REF: STATE 43742

LONDON 00001172 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Political Counselor Richard Mills for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (C) Summary. The UK expects the Balkans to be the key
discussion item at the April 27-28 GAERC; the UK is still
pushing to have a Stabilization and Association Agreement
(SSA) with Bosnia signed at this GAERC, but expects it will
slip to the May GAERC. According to Martin Shearman, EU
Correspondent at the Foreign Office, the UK's other aims are
a strong statement on Zimbabwe and to limit discussion on
Kosovo as much as possible. Although Iran is not on the
agenda, the UK will use the margins of the meeting to urge
those EU members hostile to new autonomous sanctions -- among
which Shearman identified Cyprus, Austria and Spain -- to let
the process move forward. End summary.


2. (C) Poloff discussed the upcoming GAERC with Shearman on
April 23 and 24. Shearman provided the following readout of
UK expectations for next week's GAERC:

(C) Iran. Despite Rome's lifting of its objection to
including Bank Melli on the EU-developed list of additional
entities for designation under UNSCRs 1737/1747, legal and
procedural "hiccups" meant the final list could not be
approved next week. The UK expects the paperwork to be ready
for Ministers to take action at a Ministerial-level meeting
scheduled the week of May 5. Iran will not be on the April
GAERC agenda, but the UK will use the margins of the GAERC to
press on the need to move forward on implementing UNSCR 1803
and new autonomous measures. Shearman identified Cyprus,
Austria, and Spain as the principle blockages to moving
forward on new EU measures. (Embassy comment. Foreign Office
Iran desk, to whom we also conveyed ref GAERC points on April
24, confirmed Shearman's timeframe for progress on the
EU-developed list in a separate conversation. According to
the Iran desk, the May 5 Ministerial meting has an
agricultural focus, but the Ministers will have authority to
sign the necessary sanctions document. End comment.)

(C) Serbia. Shearman expects this to be the headline issue.
There will be a full discussion on Serbia and the Balkans and
a common conclusion issued that "both our governments will
like." London had wanted the SSA with Bosnia signed at the
April GAERC, and is still pushing for it, but legal and
procedural delays made it unlikely. Shearman said the UK is
determined the Bosnian SSA be signed before the May 11
Serbian elections because of the boost it would give
neighboring democratic forces in Serbia. Shearman reported
that progress on a SSA with Serbia "remains firmly frozen"
because of the long-standing Dutch and Belgian positions on
the need for Serbian cooperation with the ICTY; Shearman said
that the UK had seen no indication that the Dutch Government
had new room for flexibility, despite reports of a "deal"
between the Dutch Prime Minister and the Dutch Parliament on
the issue.

(C) Kosovo. Shearman said the UK does not think discussion
of Kosovo at the April GAERC will be very useful as it would
just allow the "usual naysayers" to raise concerns about the
transition from UNMIK to EULEX and "spin out from there."
Unfortunately, Shearman expects the issue to be forcefully
raised by Karl Bildt, who "has a bee in his bonnet" on the
issue of having the UN force stay in Northern Kosovo and "the
impossibility of forcing Serbs to be Kosovars." Bildt has
also been raising the issue with some EU Members of going
back to the UNSC for "additional political cover," Shearman
added, which London opposes.

(C) Georgia. "The EU is not at its best" when an issue
touches on Russia, Shearman noted, but so far had been
"pretty solid" on the Georgian case. Georgia will be
discussed during the Ministerial lunch on Tuesday and the UK
is working to have the discussion produce a written
conclusion that would restate the policy of support for
Georgia's territorial integrity, as well as urge Russia and
Georgia to play a peaceful, constructive role in the peace
process. Shearman said that specific language criticizing
Russia for provocative actions or requesting a repeal of the

LONDON 00001172 002.2 OF 002


April 16 Putin decree was not achievable at this point within
the EU.

(C) Middle East. The UK does not foresee the GAERC producing
any new developments or directions; the UK intends to point
to the May 2 Ad Hoc Liaison Committee Meeting in London as a
reason for the April GAERC to not spend much time on the
issue and wait for a readout. Shearman predicted that there
will be "lots of disquiet" about the lack of visible progress
on the ground from the on-going Israeli-Palestinian talks and
the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

(C) Zimbabwe. The UK expects a strong message to come out of
the GAERC that will be critical of Mugabe and call for SADC
and the AU to do more. EU Members are "in a good place on
this issue" from London's view, Shearman said, except for EU
Commissioner Michel who has been arguing to some Members that
"too tough" an approach with Mugabe will only harden his
resolve and force him into a corner, a view that London
firmly rejects.

(C) Tibet. Shearman said Tibet is an agenda item, but he did
not expect a lengthy discussion and the UK does not intend to
make any specific points. There will be no written
conclusions. Shearman said.

(C) Pakistan. The UK will push for increased EU financial
and diplomatic support for Pakistan's civil society and
democratic institutions now that a coalition government is
established in Islamabad. Shearman did not expect any
specific announcements out of the GAERC on new programs, but
the UK would use this meeting to lay the groundwork for new
support in the future.

(SBU) Burma. The EU will renew existing sanctions, but
Shearman did not anticipate a lengthy discussion.

Visit London's Classified Website:
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Unit ed_Kingdom
TUTTLE