HMG EXPECTS LITTLE IMMINENT CHANGE IN CUBA BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 001157

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NOFORN
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2018
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM UK CU EUN
SUBJECT: HMG EXPECTS LITTLE IMMINENT CHANGE IN CUBA BUT
REMAINS ENGAGED


LONDON 00001157 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: PolCouns Richard Mills, Jr., reason 1.4, b/d.


1. (C/NF) Summary. Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO)
officials told Cuba Transition Coordinator Caleb McCarry
they detected little real change since Raul Castro assumed
power, but they firmly believed the only means of exploiting
any possible openings with the regime was to remain engaged.
They were wary of "lecturing" the regime, which seemed to
make Cuban officials dig in their heels, but were attempting
to discern what the EU could get (e.g. release of political
prisoners) in exchange for lifting the suspended 2003
Restrictive Measures at its June meeting on the Cuba Common
Policy. They could not envision supporting a lifting of the
measures without getting something in return because to do
so would send the wrong signal. In another meeting, a local
academic at the International Institute for the Study of
Cuba told McCarry the U.S. should swallow its pride and let
the regime think it has won, at least briefly, because Havana
will not be swayed by the types of pressure historically
employed. End Summary.

FCO: Constructive Engagement Over Isolation
--------------


2. (C/NF) HMG agrees that there has been little real change
in Cuba since Fidel Castro began handing the reigns of power
to his brother Raul, but London remains hopeful that small
changes instigated by Raul will provide openings for
constructive engagement. FCO Director for the Americas Chris
Wood told Cuba Transition Coordinator Caleb McCarry and
EUR's Nicole Otallah April 15 that the press was overly
optimistic about change when Fidel fell ill and later
resigned. HMG agreed that most of the changes proposed by
Raul primarily benefit Cuba's "nomenklatura." Wood noted
that in a recent meeting with Cuban Vice Minister Caballero,
FCO Minister Meg Munn told the Cuban that HMG would like to
engage Havana but needs a signal from the regime to do so,
particularly on human rights. Caballero was adamant that
lecturing Cuba would not foment change; he cited the removal
of Cuba from the Human Rights Council agenda as a positive
step that allowed the regime to sign the UN Covenant on Human
Rights.


3. (C/NF) In the meantime, HMG was thinking about what it
could get out of the regime before June when the EU
discusses the EU Common Policy on Cuba and whether to lift
the suspended 2003 Restrictive Measures. Wood said HMG
continued to believe the 2003 Measures did not accomplish
anything but is reluctant to lift them without getting
something in exchange, e.g. release of political prisoners.
Although the UK embassy in Havana has fairly good access to
the regime, such conversations were difficult because the
regime does not admit to having political prisoners. In
addition, the regime wants something in exchange for signing
the UN Covenant on Human Rights, which is meaningless without
implementation. McCarry noted that regime thugs had beat up
Cubans who were distributing copies of the Universal
Declaration of Human Rights two days after the Cubans signed
the Covenant, sending a strong signal to the Cuban people.
Matthew Forbes, FCO Head of the Caribbean Team said the
regime is already in breach of the Covenant because it
refuses to take back from the UK former Cuban prisoners; but
HMG cannot press these issues without a dialogue with the
regime.


4. (C/NF) McCarry said the USG supported the UK and others
having a dialogue with the regime to press issues of human
rights and the need for democratic change, but the USG also
emphasized the importance, at this time, of EU outreach to
the opposition and Cuban civil society. McCarry emphasized
that it is essential the regime begin to give up some of the
control it has over every aspect of Cubans' lives by ending
the practice of jailing people for disagreeing with their
government. He pressed HMG to include something in the
U.S.-EU Summit Communique that calls for "democracy, human
rights, and the release of political prisoners in Cuba."
Otallah pressed for UK support of the Political Prisoner
Initiative with the EU. HMG was very supportive of the
initiative but was concerned that the timing of it could
complicate the discussion of the Common Policy in June; it
should be sometime later.


5. (C/NF) Asked about the transition fund for Cuba, McCarry
noted the USG was still working on the details of the fund.
He added that the USG, including DoD, is also making
contingency plans for a transition in Cuba to deal with
humanitarian and infrastructure issues, refugees, democracy
assistance, etc., in the event of a transition to democracy.
McCarry noted these plans were close-hold because cynics
would easily jump to the conclusion that the U.S. was

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planning for regime change, which was certainly not the case.

Academia: Call Their Bluff
--------------


6. (U) In a separate meeting, Assistant Director of the
International Institute for the Study of Cuba Dr. Stephen
Wilkenson shared his insights from his many visits to the
island. He argued that the regime is impervious to the kinds
of pressure heretofore applied by "the West." Stephenson
asserted that the desire for "consumption is unrestrainable,"
with Cubans increasingly wanting and expecting electronics
and modern conveniences. This consumerism would propel
change in the regime if the West "swallowed its pride" and
let Havana think it had won. He believed the regime would
accept "social democracy" if it were assured that health care
remained universal.

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