SLOVENIAN EU PRESIDENCY AT THE HALFWAY POINT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LJUBLJANA 000146

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2018
TAGS: PREL CVIS PGOV EUN ASEC OVIP SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIAN EU PRESIDENCY AT THE HALFWAY POINT

REF: A. SECSTATE 25813


B. REFA: LJUBLJANA 00121

C. REFB: LJUBLJANA 00102

Classified By: CDA Maryruth Coleman for Reasons (B, D)

Summary
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1. (C) Slovenia has made the most of its limited resources
during the first three months of its EU presidency by
focusing on what it knows best and turning to outside sources
for assistance in other areas. Slovenia appears more
amenable than many previous small-country presidencies to
seek guidance from the Council Secretariat in Brussels and
other EU member states. This is not to say that Slovenia has
avoided a leadership role but rather that it understands
where it is well-positioned to lead and where it is better
positioned to play the role of "honest broker." Slovenia has
used its presidency to strongly push for the European
development of the Western Balkans, and Foreign Minister
Rupel has actively campaigned to advance Western Balkans
countries and Turkey along the path to EU membership.
Slovenia has also demonstrated that it is willing to look
beyond its national interests and act in accordance with what
it perceives to be the interest of the entire EU. Slovenia
worked with its European partners to coordinate an EU
response to Kosovo's declaration of independence in February
and moved forward with its own national recognition of
Kosovo, despite opposition from business leaders with
significant investments in Serbia. Although it is still too
early to assess the success of the Slovenian presidency,
Slovenia has shown halfway through its six-month term that it
is capable of executing the task at hand. We expect Slovenia
to continue to cooperate closely with the U.S. in the run up
to the U.S.-EU summit in June. End summary.

Generally Receptive to US Views
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2. (C) Slovenia has been generally receptive to U.S. policy
positions during its presidency, particularly when there is
no EU consensus and our interests are aligned on the issue.
Slovenia came through for us with strong presidency
statements condemning aspects of the Iranian and Russian
elections and by chairing a successful U.S.-EU JHA
Ministerial on March 13 and defusing tension over the Visa
Waiver Program. In other instances, however, Slovenian
officials have resisted our calls for strong leadership by
using Slovenia's size as a crutch, telling our officers that
the country is too small to influence EU policy. This is
usually the response given when the U.S. position diverges
from the EU consensus, such as when Post called on Slovenia
to redirect the EU climate change debate at the March 13-14
European Council meeting (Reftel A). It is also the common
response given when Slovenia has little expertise or interest
on the issue, such as our push for additional sanctions on
Burma or our attempt to cancel the trip of EU Development
Commissioner Louis Michel to Cuba (Reftel B).


3. (C) The late-January leak of a Slovenian government memo
outlining a conversation between senior U.S. and Slovenian
officials does not appear to have done any lasting damage to
U.S.-Slovenian relations or affected our lobbying efforts
during Slovenia's presidency. The Slovenian press, which
characterized the content of the memo as the U.S. making
foreign policy demands of Slovenia, kept the issue alive for
weeks after the story broke, but eventually the controversy
subsided. The fear that Slovenia would seek to publicly
distance itself from the U.S. and avoid U.S. policy
recommendations appears to be unfounded, as all of the
above-mentioned instances in which Slovenia backed the U.S.
position occurred after the leaked memo incident. Slovenian
officials conveyed their embarrassment over the ordeal and
have since increased their internal security measures.
Although the issue now appears to have fallen off the radar
screen, there is still the distinct possibility that it could
reemerge in the press around the time of the U.S.-EU summit
in June.

Strong Management, Subtle Leadership
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4. (C) Slovenian officials have no delusions about the
influence of their country within the EU. State Secretary
for European Affairs in the Prime Minister's office and chief
coordinator for the EU presidency Janez Lenarcic is quick to
admit that Slovenia merely hopes to get through its
presidency without any significant blunders. This

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self-effacing tone, however, disguises the fact that the
Slovenes have done an excellent job planning the calendar and
presiding over meetings--two of its key tasks as president of
the Council of the European Union. The Slovenes have planned
and presided over meetings with a Teutonic fastidiousness--a
quality probably inherited from centuries of Austro-Hungarian
rule, and a quality distinguishing Slovenia from its EU
presidency predecessor, Portugal. U.S. officials visiting
Slovenia during the presidency have praised Slovenia for its
management of meetings and its convenient conference
facilities just 25 minutes outside of Ljubljana.


5. (C) Slovenia has impressed Post with its keen management
skills, but it has not taken a lead role on many policy
issues beyond the Western Balkans. Slovenian officials note
that the role of the EU presidency is to objectively preside
over meetings and coordinate EU policy rather than direct it.
Slovenia therefore considers its primary role to be that of
an honest-broker rather than a leader. Slovenia has
nevertheless been criticized in the international media for
placing its national interests above its consensus-building
responsibilities as president in its efforts to address its
ongoing border dispute with Croatia. The Financial Times
published an article on February 20 that raised concerns held
by some EU diplomats that Slovenia was using its presidency
to "push the dispute up the ministerial agenda" with the
expectation that the EU would side with member state Slovenia
over candidate country Croatia. Slovenia has shown in other
instances, however, that it is willing to act on behalf of
the entire EU. Slovenia moved forward with its national
recognition of Kosovo, despite significant opposition from
Slovenian business groups and the risk of further vandalism
to its embassy in Belgrade.


6. (C) One area where Slovenia has shown strong leadership
is pushing for the European development of the Western
Balkans (WB). Slovenia has lobbied strongly for the European
integration of Serbia, in particular, and Foreign Minister
Rupel has repeatedly called on the EU to sign a Stabilization
and Association Agreement (SAA) with Serbia. Despite
significant opposition from the Netherlands, which insists
that Serbia increase its cooperation with international war
crime tribunal in the Hague, Slovenia continues to push the
idea. Foreign Minister Rupel intends to make a renewed push
after Serbia's early parliamentary election in May.


7. (C) The Slovenian presidency has proactively fostered
U.S.-EU cooperation in the field of Justice and Home Affairs
(JHA),and the U.S.-EU JHA Ministerial, held in Slovenia
March 12-13, has been one of the highlights of the presidency
to date. Slovenia drove forward an ambitious agenda;
notably, Slovenia worked hard to manage the controversy that
had erupted over the U.S. Visa Waiver Program. These efforts
paid off in the form of a joint U.S.-EU statement issued at
the Ministerial outlining a "twin-track" approach covering
discussions with EU Member States and European Union
institutions. Slovenia, which has demonstrated significant
leadership since January in U.S.-EU talks on information
sharing and data privacy, committed at the Ministerial to
work to conclude U.S.-EU talks during its Presidency. This
was a key deliverable for the U.S.

France Looming Large but Influence Overstated
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8. (C/NF) The international media has accused France--which
assumes the presidency after Slovenia--of overshadowing the
Slovenian presidency as Paris prepares for its own six-month
term, but France's influence over the Slovenian presidency
appears to be overstated. Slovenian officials are sensitive
about the issue and have sought to downplay the role of
France, although acknowledging it represents the Slovenian
presidency in 111 countries where Slovenia has no diplomatic
presence. The Americas Desk at the Slovenian MFA, for
example, has emphasized that France would not play a role in
the U.S.-EU summit in June, and Slovenia has no plans to
invite France to the summit. Post has noticed that France
has assumed a prominent role on those issues that it has set
as priorities for its own presidency, such as energy and
climate change. MFA Director for Southeastern Europe Leon
Marc acknowledged to ADCM on March 17 that Slovenia turns to
France for policy guidance on Africa, where Slovenia lacks a
diplomatic presence, but he quickly added that Slovenia looks
to British Foreign Secretary David Miliband and Swedish
Foreign Minister Bildt for guidance on the Western Balkans.
He estimated that Slovenia consults most frequently with
Miliband on a wide array of issues related to the presidency.
Marc also told ADCM that Slovenia is often more aligned with
Germany than France on the key policy issues, noting that

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Slovenia drafted its presidency agenda very closely with
Germany as part of the tripartite presidency.


9. (C/NF) In a March 26 meeting, Emboff discussed the role
of other EU member states on security issues with Stanislav
Vidovic, the Head of the MFA Division for Security Policy.
Vidovic, whose division covers primarily counterterrorism and
non-proliferation issues, responded that the French have not
been so engaged on counterterrorism but have been far more
active on non-proliferation, often to the frustration of
Slovenian officials. Vidovic explained that France has
pushed its agenda on the Slovenian presidency in an
unconstructive way. He speculated that the French presidency
would not be as successful as the French might hope because
France has not worked cooperatively with Slovenia on the
issues that Paris has set as priorities for its own
presidency. In contrast, Vidovic noted that Slovenia works
far more closely and constructively with the U.K., Germany,
and the Netherlands on security issues.

Keeping Rupel in Check
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10. (C/NF) Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel, who has the most
visible role in Slovenia's EU presidency, continues to be an
unpredictable figure. He has at times adroitly brokered
behind-the-scenes negotiations between EU leaders, while at
other times has complicated ongoing negotiations with his
sometimes impulsive remarks. Among his notable
accomplishments has been his role in overseeing the drafting
the EU presidency statement following Kosovo's declaration of
independence. Rupel met with Charge shortly after the
statement was released and proudly detailed how he presided
over the difficult negotiations and worked with his European
counterparts to establish common language.


11. (C/NF) Despite his self-proclaimed deftness in
negotiating the EU response on Kosovo, Rupel is not
particularly well liked in either domestic or international
political circles. The Foreign Minister has a glib manner
that is often interpreted as a sign of arrogance. He has
been forced to walk back statements on several occasions in
the first three months of the presidency. Most notably, he
offended Serbian leaders in January when he told
international press that Belgrade would jump at the
opportunity to sign a Stabilization and Association
Agreement; the Serbian leaders responded that Serbia could
respond for itself. He also does a poor job articulating his
message when he is asked to speak on policy matters outside
his realm of expertise, which he is frequently required to do
as President of the Council of the EU. He did a notably poor
job articulating the EU position on Visa Waiver Program at
the Foreign Minister Troika dinner with the Secretary on
March 6.


12. (C/NF) Rupel has been a frequent topic of conversation
in diplomatic circles in Ljubljana. Although some diplomats
see Rupel as capable, careful, and diplomatic, the majority
assess that his impulsiveness has hurt Slovenia's EU
presidency effort. Charge attended a dinner in mid February
in which several EU Ambassadors criticized Rupel's management
of the MFA and coordination of EU issues, complaining that
Rupel frequently speaks off the cuff and causes undue
controversy for Slovenia and the EU. He was also accused of
mismanaging the "leaked memo scandal" by dismissing Political
Director Mitja Drobnic, a capable and experienced diplomat
with no confirmed connection to the leak. The move angered
many MFA employees and further eroded their confidence in the
Minister. The issue continues to resonate in the MFA.

Looking Ahead to the U.S.-EU Summit
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13. (U) Slovenia will be busy with numerous high-level
events over the next three months, including several EU
summits. Slovenia will preside over the EU-Japan summit in
Japan at the end of April, the EU-Latin America and Caribbean
(LAC) Summit with all 27 EU heads of government in Lima on
May 15-17, and the EU-Russia summit in Russia sometime in
June. Slovenia will host the U.S.-EU Summit in Ljubljana on
June 9-10. (Note: This date has not yet been formally
announced by the White House. End note.) U.S. and EU
officials are still finalizing the agenda for the summit in
June, but it is likely to focus on three areas: cooperation
on global foreign policy challenges; promoting European
enlargement and integration; and building a prosperous
transatlantic community. The EU is also pushing for a fourth
focus area that would address energy and climate change
issues. Slovenian officials have emphasized that the summit

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is a big deal for their presidency, particularly since it is
the only summit to be held in Slovenia.

Commentary
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14. (C) The fact that Slovenia has risen to the occasion and
deftly managed the first three months of its EU presidency
should come as no surprise to those who have followed
Slovenia over the years. Slovenia displayed the same strong
management and organization when it chaired the OSCE in 2005.
Yet Slovenia also suffered from several shortcomings during
its OSCE chairmanship, including the tendency to place too
much emphasis on consensus, that have resurfaced during the
first three months of its presidency. Although Slovenia
considers its primary role to be that of an honest broker,
there are still several areas where it is worthwhile to
engage early and closely in Slovenia. We should continue to
consult closely with the Slovenes on those areas where our
interests are aligned, such as in promoting the European
development of the western Balkans and also in those areas
where the EU has not built full consensus, such as the Visa
Waiver Program. Close consultations with Slovenia can pay
dividends if our lobbying is well-targeted. Looking ahead to
the coming months, we expect Slovenia to devote significant
time and attention to ensuring a successful U.S.-EU summit.

COLEMAN