PDAS VOLKER AND PORTUGUESE POLITICAL DIRECTOR;

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 000606

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2018
TAGS: PREL MOPS PHUM KDEM AF EUN PO
SUBJECT: PDAS VOLKER AND PORTUGUESE POLITICAL DIRECTOR;
KOSOVO, AFGHANISTAN, NATO

REF: LISBON 510

Classified By: CONOFF KATHRYN FITRELL, REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (U) Summary: During PDAS Volker's visit to Lisbon for the
February 22 Bilateral Commission (septel),Volker and
Ambassador Stephenson met privately with Foreign Ministry
Political Director Ambassador Vasco Bramao Ramos and, later
in the day, with the Secretary of State for Defense, Joao
Mira Gomes, to discuss a range of foreign policy issues,
including Kosovo, Afghanistan, NATO, Russia, East Timor, and
Cuba. Portugal is still in the process of deciding whether
and when to recognize Kosovo. Officials expressed concern
over Afghanistan, and believe that Pakistan's recent
elections will have a significant impact on the region's
stability. Concerning expansion of NATO, Portugal supports
the membership of Macedonia, Croatia and Albania. End
Summary.

Kosovo


2. (C) On the subject of Kosovo, Bramao Ramos was not
specific about if and when Portugal would recognize its
declared independence. He opened the discussion by asking
whether the Ambassador and Volker had noticed he did not use
the word "recognition" in his opening remarks. He said he had
not expected the majority of people, press and opinion makers
of Portugal to present such a "unified front" voicing their
doubts about recognizing Kosovo. Bramao Ramos said he was
pleased that the EU successfully issued a framework that
provided each nation with flexibility to establish relations
with Kosovo on its terms and timing.


3. (C) PDAS Volker commented that Moratinos' comments that
the framework was illegal were "very destructive." Bramao
Ramos responded by stating that Moratinos had to disassociate
himself from the framework because of the upcoming elections
in Spain on March 9. Bramao Ramos cited the commitment of EU
Ministers to put forth a framework, noting that when
negotiations were blocked on Sunday night, February 18, the
Ministers asked all staff to leave and managed to produce a
text. (Interestingly, the text was written in Spanish.)


4. (C) When pressed for specifics on timing for Portugal,
Bramao Ramos said the first step had been taken by consulting
with Parliament and the political parties. Then the Prime
Minister and the President would have the final say. He
couldn't "foresee how things will go at this point." The
Ambassador said Foreign Minister Amado related to him that
Amado would push hard for Portugal to be part of the first
wave of countries, emphasizing the importance of quickly
recognizing Kosovo to get it off the front pages and send a
message to Belgrade and Moscow. Volker added that,
surprisingly thus far -- the transition has been fairly
smooth and relatively non-violent, which should encourage
other nations. Bramao Ramos predicted that two-thirds of the
EU will recognize Kosovo in a few weeks, but he did not
specifically say that Portugal would be included.


5. (C) Bramao Ramos said there appears to be a 50/50 split of
Serbian support between Prime Minister Kostunica and
President Tadic of Serbia. In private meetings with the
former, Bramao Ramos had underscored the inevitability of
Kosovo,s independence and the need for good relations, but
the Prime Minister did not budge from his position. With the
latter, Bramao Ramos understood that Tadic "would look the
other way" regarding Kosovar independence. Bramao Ramos said
we had to provide the correct incentives, without mentioning
specifics.


6. (C) In Volker,s and the Ambassador's meeting with the
Secretary of State for Defense, Mira Gomes underscored the

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GOP's commitment to Kosovo and KFOR but said it was another
important topic for the NATO Summit in Bucharest. He added
that the next U.S. Administration should focus on NATO and EU
cooperation in Kosovo.

Afghanistan


7. (C) Referring to Bramao Ramos' earlier comments during the
Commission plenary questioning whether NATO forces were
welcome in Afghanistan, PDAS Volker said it exemplified how
"we've lost control of the storyline." The upcoming NATO

Summit in Bucharest, he said, will provide the opportunity to
focus the Alliance's mission on Afghanistan, including
non-NATO partners and the further development of non-military
strategies to complement military action.


8. (C) Bramao Ramos said Afghanistan is in a very unstable
region. When the Ambassador noted the dramatic improvements
that had taken place, Bramao Ramos countered by asking about
the opium trade. Volker said the drug operations are being
run in an organized crime fashion, and benefit the Taliban.
Bramao Ramos said the Afghan people will strive to improve
their quality of life whether it's cultivating opium or
wheat. Volker noted, however, the farmers are not the ones
getting the money from opium production, and would not
ordinarily be levied a 10 percent tax on their harvests, as
they currently are by the drug lords for producing opium.
Bramao Ramos acknowledged that what happens in Pakistan will
have a significant impact and expressed hope that the recent
elections will continue to push political developments in a
peaceful direction.

NATO


9. (C) Volker began his meeting with Mira Gomes by discussing
the upcoming NATO Summit, emphasizing that Afghanistan would
be top on the agenda and the public must have the proper
perspective of the strategic effort. Mira Gomes said that
although the Vilnius Defense Ministers meeting yielded good
discussions, the public perception - though not the reality -
was that the alliance was divided between the U.S. and the
rest. He cautioned that this must not be repeated in
Bucharest. Mira Gomes also stated the need to designate a
special representative for Afghanistan before the Summit in
April. The move would put pressure on the Afghan government
to address issues with respect to human rights, the judiciary
and corruption. It is hard to justify risking the lives of
soldiers if the Afghan government does not live up to
standards, he said.


10. (C) Additionally, Mira Gomes said the GOP would remove
the Portuguese company from Afghanistan after three years to
give the soldiers a rest and fulfill other commitments. Both
the Ambassador and Volker stressed the importance of keeping
the company in place. Volker said the move could be
misinterpreted as indicating that Portugal no longer believed
in the mission.


11. (C) Concerning NATO enlargement, Mira Gomes that the
three prospective member countries, Macedonia, Croatia and
Albania, should be invited simultaneously to provide
stabilization to the region. Macedonia should not be blocked
over its name; the GOP proposed using "New Macedonia." Volker
said Georgia and the Ukraine should receive encouragement for
their NATO aspirations at the Bucharest Summit. Mira Gomes
said the GOP was cautious because the Ukraine is so divided
already that prospective membership in NATO may divide the
country further.

Missile Defense/Russia


12. (C) Volker raised the missile defense program with Bramao
Ramos saying that Russia hopes to continue blocking progress
by keeping Europe divided. Talks with Poland and Czech
Republic, however, are on track.


13. (C) In his meeting, Mira Gomes said it was critical that
NATO not be divided over the issue of missile defense, adding
that some nations are concerned that they will not be
protected. He said that Article 5 should be applied equally
to all countries, rather than allowing "hosting" countries
(those with the radar and missiles) to enjoy more protections
under Article 5.

East Timor


14. (C) Bramao Ramos said that GOP is very concerned about
the country. In the aftermath of the attempted assassinations
of the President and Prime Minister on February 11, the
visiting National Assembly President asked PM Socrates to
commit more National Guard troops. He said Socrates had made
no commitment. According to Bramao Ramos, Portugal is
"stretched to the limit in terms of what we can deploy."

CIA Flights


15. (C) Volker alerted Bramao Ramos that U.K. Foreign
Secretary Miliband would announce in the House of Commons

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that day that the U.S. provided information recently that two
detainees had transited through Diego Garcia in 2003,
contrary to earlier denials. The PDAS said, upon further
research and investigation, the USG realized the error and
immediately informed the U.K. government. He said Portugal
has done an exemplary job of handling unsubstantiated press
allegations about its role in permitting rendition flights.
Bramao Ramos noted that in testimony before parliament on
February 17, he had explained the overflight clearance
procedure. Bramao Ramos portrayed the relationship between
allies as being based on trust, noting that "allies give
information when they have it. We do not question your
requests."

Wage Survey


16. (C) In light of public criticism over a salary increase
dispute for the U.S. Air Force's Portuguese workers at Lajes
Air Field, the Ambassador stated concern over the potential
ramifications of reopening the Work Regulations, pointing to
benefits that could be eliminated in the process, such as
food and transportation allowances. Bramao Ramos agreed that
the dispute was a minor irritant when considering that the
total cost of the wage difference is about 90 euros a person
annually, but the fact that it is an election year in the
Azores gives it particular prominence. He said he did not
support reopening the Work Regulations, unless changes could
be made only to the relevant sections. He restated his desire
to find an "imaginative" solution that gets the issue off the
Bilateral Commission's agenda and addresses the workers'
complaints.

Cuba


17. (C) Bramao Ramos speculated somewhat optimistically about
Cuba's future in light of Fidel Castro's decision to step
down, calling it an important first step. Volker expressed
serious doubt that this portended any real change. Bramao
Ramos agreed with Volker that only release of political
prisoners and progress on other freedoms would demonstrate
that Fidel's departure meant real change. He said Brazilian
President Lula and Venezuelan President Chavez were
instrumental figures in Cuba's transition and could have a
positive influence. Volker strongly refuted that Chavez could
be counted on to push the Cuban leadership on democratic
reform, pointing that he had moved in the opposite direction
in Venezuela.

Comment


18. (C) Bramao Ramos has often strayed from his government's
line on Venezuela, where he once served as Portuguese
ambassador, and he appears to have a soft spot for Hugo
Chavez. His views on Venezuela do not reflect the views of
FM Amado, who earlier instructed him to refrain from
advocating them. The political director's hand-wringing on
Kosovo does reflect broad concern in the GOP about the timing
of recognition. As we have reported previously, Lisbon's
main goal is likely not to be in the vanguard of EU member
states but very much in the middle of the pack.

Stephenson