PORTUGAL: NO CHANGE IN CUBA POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 000511

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2028
TAGS: PGOV CU EUN PREL PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL: NO CHANGE IN CUBA POLICY

REF: STATE 18317

Classified By: A/Pol/Econ Counselor Cari Enav. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (SBU) The selection of Raul Castro as Cuba's president
will not alter Portugal's support for the EU's dual-track
approach of pressing for political reform while actively
engaging members of civil society. The MFA Americas Director
does not foresee any radical change but does see possible
economic reform, given Raul's calls for greater efficiency
and his outreach to Brazilian President Lula whom they see as
a positive, moderate influence. Foreign Minister Amado has
not scheduled a trip to Cuba despite the March 2007
invitation by Foreign Minister Perez Roque to visit the
island.

No Political Change Foreseen
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2. (C) MFA Americas Director Helena Coutinho told A/DCM on
February 25 that the selection of Raul Castro as Cuba's new
president will not alter Portugal's support for the EU's dual
track approach of pressing for political reform while
actively engaging civil society. Raul's government is
unlikely to take the concrete political actions necessary to
strengthen the relationship with the EU, she said,
underscoring that the release of political prisoners would
remain a top EU policy focus. Coutinho noted that Portugal's
efforts during its recent EU presidency had only resulted in
the release of one prisoner, and she underscored the need for
a continued concerted effort in this regard at all levels.


3. (C) Portugal will keep the lines of communication open
with democratic activists, members of civil society and Cuban
officials as they believe it to be one of the best ways of
promoting change. "Who knows," Coutinho said, "one day one
of our interlocutors may be in a position to bring about real
change?" She added that Foreign Minister Amado's 2008 travel
schedule had not been finalized and that he currently had no
plans to reciprocate the March 2007 visit of FM Perez Roque.

Economic Reform Possible
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4. (C) Raul Castro is likely to implement measures to improve
Cuba's standard of living, Coutinho posited, even if the
government did not want to undertake larger economic reform.
There are strong indications that Raul is willing to take
"baby steps in the right direction" as he has publicly called
for greater economic efficiency and recently sought the help
of Brazilian President Lula da Silva. Coutinho commented
that Lula could play a positive role, noting his moderate
stance would likely facilitate his ability to serve as an
intermediary between the U.S. and Cuba. She added that Hugo
Chavez had lost some of his aura/appeal in Cuba since losing
the December referendum in Venezuela.

Comment
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5. (C) Though pressed, Helena Coutinho did not elaborate on a
Portuguese specific vision for Cuba outside of the EU
context. Her thoughts on Cuba echoed MFA Political Director
Bramao Ramos's comments to EUR PDAS Volker the week before at
Bilateral Commission consultations in Lisbon, with two
notable exceptions (septel). Coutinho was much more
circumspect about the prospects for change and much more
dismissive of Chavez's role in reform. Bramao Ramos, who has
served as Portugal's Ambassador to Caracas, believes Chavez
can play a useful role in Cuba. His views on Chavez do not
reflect the views of FM Amado, who earlier had instructed
Bramao Ramos to refrain advocating them.
Stephenson