PORTUGAL OPTIMISTIC ABOUT POZNAN CONFERENCE

1. (C) Portugal is optimistic about progress at the upcoming
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) conference
in Poznan. Fausto Brito e Abreu, Advisor to the State
Secretary of the Environment, cited President-elect Obama's
recent statements of support for emissions reductions and
increased investment in clean energies numerous times in
response to reftel points. "We understand it will take some
time for programs to achieve these goals to be enacted, but
we are hopeful for renewed U.S. leadership." Brito e Abreu
granted that expectations must be tempered but said the
Portuguese have recognized significant evolution in USG
statements over time and believe U.S. and EU goals are coming
more into line. He also agreed that, despite our differences
in approach, it is important that talks be conducted in such
a way as to maximize progress toward mutual long-term goals.



2. (C) Brito e Abreu hoped the potential failure of
developing nations to agree to internationally binding
commitments would not preclude U.S. commitments. He further
hoped the U.S. would follow the Portuguese lead and strive
for ambitious targets. (Note: Brito e Abreu was referring
to Portugal's goals for power generation via renewable
energies and biofuels inclusion in the transportation fuel
supply, both of which are more ambitious than EU targets.
End note.) Brito e Abreu argued that U.S. flexibility will
pay off over time, and as progress is made toward
President-elect Obama's stated goal of an 80 percent
reduction in emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2050,
developing nations' resistance to binding commitments would
diminish.

3, (C) Comment: His assurances of reasonable expectations
aside, Brito e Abreu is clearly counting on the incoming
administration's climate change policies to be much more
aligned to those of the EU, particularly regarding the need
for key countries' commitments to be of similar legal
character. We will likely have to engage in public diplomacy
to temper unrealistic expectations in Portugal and elsewhere
regarding the new administration's climate change agenda.
End comment.
STEPHENSON