MEETING WITH PORTUGUESE FORMIN AMADO

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 002708

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PO
SUBJECT: MEETING WITH PORTUGUESE FORMIN AMADO

REF: A. LISBON 2698

B. LISBON 2689

Classified By: POL/ECON COUNSELOR RICHARD REITER FOR REASONS 1.4 B,D.


1. (C) SUMMARY. Ambassador Stephenson met with Portuguese
Foreign Minister Amado November 13 and touched on a range of
key topics. Amado is laying the political groundwork for an
increase in Portugal's contribution to ISAF in Afghanistan,
but new boots are unlikely to hit the ground before early

2010. Portugal understands our views on Russia but is
following the EU lead. Amado does not see the Community of
Democracies as a top priority and is waiting to see the
approach taken by the new US administration. END SUMMARY.

LAYING GROUNDWORK FOR ISAF INCREASE
--------------

2. (C) In a wide-ranging talk on November 13, Foreign
Minister Luis Amado told Ambassador Stephenson he is laying
the political groundwork within the GOP for future increases
in Portugal's contribution to NATO's ISAF mission in
Afghanistan. Amado was recently quoted in the press saying
Portugal would consider such an increase "if asked", so he
clarified that such a commitment could come only after
Portugal's autumn 2009 elections, with deployment notionally
in early 2010. Amado speculated that a new contribution
could include a medical unit or a national guard police unit
(the latter in a training capacity),but he was more focused
on getting political approval for a deployment than on what
mix of troops might be deployed.

AFRICOM - BASING NOT A GOP CONCERN
--------------

3. (C) Following last week's visit to Lisbon of AFRICOM
Deputy to the Commander Amb. Mary Carlin Yates (ref A),Amado
noted that the GOP does not have expectations that AFRICOM or
its components will be based in Portugal. Amado agreed that
the real push for this has come from the Regional Government
of the Azores, which sees such a mission as potentially
breathing new life into Lajes Air Base in the Azores.

EU/RUSSIA - FOLLOW THE LEADER
--------------

4. (C) In response to Ambassador's restating the US position
on the importance of EU and transatlantic unity towards
Russia, FM Amado commented that while Russia had made serious
mistakes in Georgia, including recognizing the separatist
regions, Portugal agrees with the EU position on the need to
work with Moscow. Amado also said he thinks there is some
"ambiguity" in the Sarkozy/Medvedev agreement --which sounds
like a prepared justification for allowing talks with Russia
to go forward. As we reported in ref B, Portugal is not
likely to take a hard line towards Russia absent EU consensus
to do so.

COMMUNITY OF DEMOCRACIES
--------------

5. (C) In response to Ambassador's question about the level
of Portugal's ambitions for its 2008-2009 chairmanship of the
Community of Democracies, Amado replied frankly that it has
not been a high priority for the GOP, and he will wait to see
what signals he gets from the new US administration.
Portugal has scheduled a CD Summit for July 2009 in Lisbon
but has done little else during its tenure, despite our
continuous prodding.

U.S. TRANSITION
--------------

6. (C) Amado commented that he understands that the new US
administration is unlikely to bring dramatic shifts in
foreign policy, but he believes that a change in style in
Washington will create different perceptions in Europe that
will serve the new administration well and enhance its
credibility among its allies. Amado believes that to restore
respect and credibility for our military might, we need to
demonstrate anew our capacity for negotiation and diplomacy,
and he hopes an Obama Administration can do so.


7. (C) We have heard that Amado is likely to step down from
his post in autumn 2009 when national elections herald a new
Portuguese government -- despite the fact that the current
Socialist government of PM Socrates looks poised to do well
in the elections.
STEPHENSON