PORTUGAL CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC AT SEPTEMBER 15-16

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 002514

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/ERA AND AF

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2018
TAGS: YI TU GG RS PHUM PREL PGOV PO EUN
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC AT SEPTEMBER 15-16
GAERC

REF: A. SECSTATE 96598

B. SECSTATE 97574

Classified By: Dana M. Brown, Pol-Econ Officer, Embassy Lisbon
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Summary: Portugal has no plans to present or direct
discussion at the September 15-16 GAERC meeting. MFA
officials expressed cautious optimism about political
developments in Zimbabwe and Belarus. They told us that the
GOP fully supports EU efforts to stabilize the Somali coast
and Georgia. End summary.


2. (C) Georgia: Deputy EU Correspondent Florbela Cardy in the
Portuguese MFA told us that Portugal viewed the
French-brokered agreement as a positive step and hoped that
the ESDP mission would help stabilize the situation when it
begins on October 1. Portugal plans to contribute either
personnel or office equipment to the new ESDP mission and
will be interested n hearing more about what other countries
plan to send at the September 15 meeting before it decides
what to offer. The ministers are likely to discuss
logistical details over lunch, according to Cardy, since
member states have already agreed the overall policy. When
asked whether the EU was concerned about having Russian and
EU personnel on the ground at the same time, she said
Portugal was confident that Russia would respect the mission,
given President Medvedev's assurances to Sarkozy.


3. (C) Zimbabwe: Portuguese Deputy Director for African
Issues Isabel Ferreira reported that Portugal is pleased by
the September 11 political accord and is looking for signs
that Zimbabwe's opposition will be fully included in the
executive decision-making process. Regarding sanctions,
Ferreira noted that the EU had added another 12 people who
had been directly connected to Zimbabwe's pre-election
violence to its sanctions list and reported that the EU was
attempting to ensure that sanctions were limited to those
directly involved in political repression. Ferreira
emphasized that Portugal would be interested in learning more
about the U.S. listing of Zimbabwean officials to see if the
EU should consider additional names.


4. (C) Ferreira stressed that Portugal was pleased that the
Zimbabwe political accord had been orchestrated by other
African nations without EU involvement. While other EU
members were interested in a more active engagement during
Zimbabwe's electoral crisis, Portugal was concerned that
direct EU involvement would come across as heavy handed and
advocated that African nations be allowed time to respond to
the crisis; an approach which Portugal believes is now paying
off.


5. (C) Somalia: The EU plans to sign conclusions on Somalia
at the GAERC, including a statement reaffirming the EU's
willingness to bolster Somalia's institution-building
capacity. Ferreira reported that Portugal fully supports the
anti-piracy efforts and views the new EU NAVCO mission as a
way to protect important fishing and tourism ventures.


6. (C) Belarus: Cardy stated that Portugal was cautiously
optimistic about the recent release of Belarus's political
prisoners and hopes that the September 28 elections will be
free and fair. If Belarus continues to inch in the right
direction, Cardy predicted that the EU would be interested in
holding a Troika meeting with Belarus as a reward.


7. (C) Comment: Cardy and Ferreira both reiterated Portugal's
preference to use patience and carrots in hopes of eventually
prompting nations to implement constructive policies.
Nevertheless, given recent events in Georgia, it is
interesting that GOP officials still express confidence in
Medvedev's promises. End comment.
STEPHENSON