PORTUGAL BRIEFS SENATOR GREGG ON RUSSIA, CAUCASUS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 002379

NOFORN
SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D COPY CAPTION
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2018
TAGS: OVIP PREL GG AF RS IR UP PO KV EUN
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL BRIEFS SENATOR GREGG ON RUSSIA, CAUCASUS,
AFGHANISTAN, AND AFRICOM

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR THOMAS STEPHENSON, REASONS 1.4
(B,D)


1. (C/NF) Summary. Portuguese MOD State Secretary Joao Mira
Gomes told Senator Judd Gregg (R, NH) that Russia's illegal
actions in Georgia required a diplomatic solution in which
the West needed to stand firm on principle (including
Georgia's territorial integrity) and suspend military
cooperation, while keeping the door open for political
dialogue. He stressed that South Ossetia and Abkhazia were
entirely separate cases from Kosovo. Regarding ISAF
contributions, he said the second Portuguese OMLT was
confirmed, but that he did not expect the redeployment of a
QRF during the 2009 Portuguese election year. End summary.


2. (U) As part of his September 2-7 visit to Portugal,
Senator Judd Gregg called on President of Parliament Jaime
Gama and Portuguese Ministry of Defense (MOD) State Secretary
(Deputy Secretary equivalent) Joao Mira Gomes on September 3.
Ambassador also hosted Senator Gregg for lunch with Ministry
of Foreign Affairs State Secretary Joao Cravinho September 2.

Russia and the Caucasus
--------------

3. (C/NF) Mira Gomes expressed surprise at Russia's
"provocative" decision to recognize South Ossetia and
Abkhazia and noted that reports of Russia establishing a navy
base in Abkhazia were problematic. Mira Gomes suggested that
Russia had precipitately ensnared itself and that the West
needed to help them find a way out. Recognition, he posited,
made a negotiated solution much more difficult, but no less
necessary, and that the UN General Assembly was an important
venue for the effort. Mira Gomes specifically noted that
Georgia and Kosovo were entirely different cases and that
Russian action in Georgia was entirely contrary to
international law.


4. (C/NF) In searching for a solution, Mira Gomes said that
western institutions were on the right track. A strong stand
on principles including statements of support for Georgia's
territorial integrity, suspension of military cooperation,
and the continuation of political dialogue are necessary
components of a negotiated solution. He admitted that the EU
needed "to get its act together," noting the difficulty of
the task given the differing perceptions among the member
states. As part of the continued political dialogue, Mira
Gomes believed the next EU-Russia Summit, scheduled for
November, would go forward as planned.


5. (C/NF) In response to Senator Gregg's question regarding
the intent behind Russia's actions, Mira Gomes said that the
Ukraine was more important than Georgia. Thus, the actions
in Georgia may have been a preemptive strike. He opined that
the Russian generals, pushed by Prime Minister Putin, were
behind this, noting that personnel with local area experience
and military equipment were put in place months in advance.
With such a situation in place, Mira Gomes believed that
Georgian President Saakashvili fell into a trap. Ambassador
noted that the trap had been intentionally set and that
Saakashvili had been forewarned. Mira Gomes reflected that
there were several other trouble spots that Russia could
exploit, including Nagorno-Karabakh and Transdniestria, and
that Russia's continued control of its own breakaway regions
like Chechnya was not assured.


6. (C/NF) Mira Gomes said that Russian action did not result
from the decisions of the Bucharest NATO Summit and that
membership action plans (MAP) would not have changed
subsequent events. Mira Gomes stressed that now NATO must
live up to its Bucharest commitments and that Russia could
not suspend or delay NATO decisions. The proper moment for
MAP decisions, he said, would be the 2009 NATO Summit.

Russia, Iran, and International Terrorism
--------------

7. (C/NF) The particular reason it is important to maintain a
political dialogue with Russia, said Mira Gomes, is Russia's
importance on other topics, such as to counter Iran's nuclear
ambitions. While he agreed with Ambassador's statement that
a nuclear Iran was not in Russia's own interests, Mira Gomes
added that Russian commercial interests in Iran were strong
enough to displace Russia's longer term political and
security interests. He said that, ironically, these same
commercial interests were displeased with the actions in
Georgia as it made commercial dealings with the West much
more difficult.


8. (C/NF) Mira Gomes also suggested that Russia is an
important actor in the struggle against international
terrorism. For this reason, confrontational rhetoric against
Russia was unhelpful. In addition to the frozen conflicts,

Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan were too sensitive to lose
Russian engagement and any or all of the Maghreb states could
ignite.


9. (C/NF) Although Portugal is not a consumer of Russian gas,
Mira Gomes noted the importance of such energy exports to EU
member states in the east. In Senator Gregg's separate
meeting with Parliamentary President Jaime Gama, Gama noted
that the EU needs a network of energy suppliers, including
Russia, other Caspian producers, North Sea, Algeria, and
others in order to let competition work.

Afghanistan and ISAF
--------------

10. (C/NF) Mira Gomes confirmed that Portugal would
contribute a second Operational Mentoring and Liaison Team
(OMLT) to ISAF operations in Afghanistan. The second OMLT
has been identified and the MOD is working on the deployment
timetable. Additionally, Mira Gomes said a Portuguese Air
Force (PAF) C-130 is currently in Afghanistan and the MOD is
exploring additional contributions, including a detachment of
medical personnel and an extension of the C-130 deployment.


11. (C/NF) While the MOD explores additional contributions,
Mira Gomes believed that the Portuguese Quick Reaction Force
(QRF) that departed Afghanistan in August would not soon be
replaced. He noted that the decision to withdraw the
company-sized QRF was the unanimous decision of the
government, the president, and the major parties in
parliament. As 2009 is a Portuguese election year, Mira
Gomes did not believe a new QRF would deploy before the
elections, despite the eagerness of the uniformed services to
do so.

AFRICOM
--------------

12. (C/NF) Mira Gomes raised the subject of the new Africa
Command (AFRICOM),noting Portugal's desire to cooperate with
AFRICOM including potentially hosting command elements on
Portuguese territory. While Mira Gomes lauded the idea
behind AFRICOM, he lamented that its establishment had been
handled poorly in regard to educating African governments and
populations on AFRICOM's intent and structure.

Comment
--------------

13. (C/NF) Mira Gomes speaks much more directly than many
Portuguese officials and is not shy about voicing his own
opinion. As the most influential policy-making official at
the MOD, however, it is worth considering how his opinions
may affect our own requests for cooperation. While we will
continue pushing for the return of the QRF to Afghanistan,
the USG can also usefully focus efforts on the
deployment-without-caveats of additional OMLTs for the Afghan
National Army as well as "POMLTs" for the Afghan National
Police, the latter comprising Portugal's National Guard.
STEPHENSON