NEW POLICIES NEEDED FOR KOSOVO AND LEBANON; OTHER

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 001238

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2018
TAGS: IR IZ IS SY PHUM PREL PGOV PO
SUBJECT: NEW POLICIES NEEDED FOR KOSOVO AND LEBANON; OTHER
PORTUGUESE VIEWS FOR MAY 26-27 FOREIGN MINISTERS MEETING
(GAERC)

REF: SECSTATE 54639

Classified By: Dana M. Brown, Pol-Econ Officer, Embassy Lisbon
Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The Portuguese MFA's Deputy EU Correspondent
reported that the EU ministers needed to quickly develop an
alternative strategy for the mission transition in Kosovo to
avoid a gap between the UN and EU forces. She added that
Portugal was in "no rush" to recognize Kosovo at this point
despite ongoing international pressure. On Lebanon, she
stated that the situation in Lebanon is "a disaster," and
predicted that the ministers would have to hash out a new
policy so the EU could interact with a new coalition
government. Although it was not on the original agenda,
Rocha mentioned that EU observer support for Zimbabwe would
be discussed during the meeting and the FM's Chief of Staff
separately said the GAERC lunch would discuss closing GTMO
(see septel). End summary.


2. (C) Western Balkans: The Portuguese MFA's Deputy EU
Correspondent, Ana Filomena Rocha acknowledged that Serbia
was moving in the right direction but stressed that its
pro-EU focus was not yet solid. Portugal hopes that positive
encouragement will help maintain Serbia's positive momentum.
On Kosovo, the ministers will discuss next steps for the
European Union Rule of Law Mission (EULEX) given the EU's
lack of success thus far in planning the UN to EU mission
hand-off. Rocha said the ministers would have to quickly
come up with a "plan B" to facilitate the EULEX transition's
logistics and avoid a potentially disastrous gap between the
missions. She further mentioned that France was actively
pressuring nations that have not recognized Kosovo to do so,
but stressed that Portugal is in no rush.


3. (C) Iraq: The ministers will coordinate the EU message for
the upcoming May 29 International Compact meeting in
Stockholm. Rocha said Member States agreed that it was time
to press the Iraqis to improve security, national
reconciliation efforts, and human rights protections.


4. (C) Lebanon/Syria: Rocha declared Hizballah's violence "a
disaster" and said the EU had to consider the new political,
economic, and assistance ramifications over a lunch
discussion.


5. (U) Iran: Rocha said Iran would not be discussed at the
GAERC.


6. (C) Afghanistan: Portugal is not considering the Paris
conference a pledge conference, according to Rocha, but
rather an opportunity to press Afghanistan on good governance
and counternarcotics programs. She added that many EU states
were increasingly concerned about the tribal violence that is
being tacitly allowed by Afghani officials in Kabul.


7. (SBU) Somalia: The EU is actively backing UN attempts to
respond to Somalia's piracy issue due to the potential damage
it could wreck on the already fragile situation. Rocha noted
that the EU would consider offering financial assistance to
anti-piracy efforts once the UN measures were approved.


8. (C) Georgia: Portugal does not believe it is the time to
implement additional measures as suggested in reftel just
yet. Rocha explained that any EU action during the UN
investigation would undermine the UN efforts, upset Russia,
and inflame the Georgia-Russia situation generally. She
added that Portugal hopes that the elections avoid violence
and wide-spread charges of fraud, which could spark further
tensions.


9. (C) Zimbabwe: The EU is attempting to work with SADC
members to encourage an observer mission for the second round
of elections. Rocha said the EU is willing to back the SADC
missions rather than requesting additional EU missions. She
said Portugal felt it unlikely that Zimbabwe would accept and
said Portugal was therefore against having the EU offer
observers at all.


10. (C) Comment: Although Portugal is willing to take public
stands on Afghanistan and Iraq, it appears wary of doing
anything to upset Russia. Rocha's reports on Georgia,
Kosovo, and Serbia all show that Portugal tends to leave
potentially sensitive issues involving Russia up to the
United Nations where possible. End comment.
Stephenson