PORTUGUESE PRESIDENT'S COMMENTS TO AMBASSADOR ON

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 LISBON 001155

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2033
TAGS: PREL ENRG PGOV PINR MARR PO AF SR VE
SUBJECT: PORTUGUESE PRESIDENT'S COMMENTS TO AMBASSADOR ON
KOSOVO, AFGHANISTAN, EUROPEAN ENERGY, VENEZUELA

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Classified By: DCM David Ballard for reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S/NF) Ambassador met with President Cavaco Silva on May
13 for a full hour (half an hour longer than scheduled). The
warm, candid discussion mainly covered Kosovo, Afghanistan,
and European energy security. Cavaco Silva also raised
Guantanamo rendition flights and Venezuela. On Kosovo,
Cavaco Silva made no promises but strongly hinted that
Portuguese recognition would come soon. On Afghanistan, he
sought to underscore Portugal's long-time and ongoing
commitment and said that all possibilities were on the table
for future Portuguese participation. On energy security, he
discussed Portugal and Europe's evolution and said he was
optimistic. Cavaco Silva raised Guantanamo detainee flights
and Venezuela, using the ongoing NGO accusations regarding
rendition flights through Portugal as a reminder that
Portugal is a strong ally that stands by the United States,
and commenting on Chavez that, "I've met him. He's a crazy
man." Although Cavaco Silva knew that the subjects to be
discussed were those that have caused the most recent tension
in the bilateral relationship, he remained smiling and warm
throughout the meeting, betraying slight nervousness on only
two occasions. His command of the facts on these issues is
clear, and his dedication to a strong U.S.-Portugal
relationship evident. He had no agenda items of his own. END
SUMMARY

KOSOVO: FOUR WAYS OF HINTING "SOON," BUT NO DETAILS



2. (SBU) Ambassador opened his first meeting with President
Cavaco Silva since his February credentials ceremony by
noting that he wanted the President's comments on issues in
which his role as Head of State and Commander in Chief of the
armed forces made his opinion and influence particularly
important.


3. (C/NF) First, Kosovo. Ambassador noted that the United
States has been a bit perplexed that Portugal has not
followed what is clear EU consensus and recognized Kosovo.
As Head of State, could the President shed some light on that
process? Cavaco Silva started by saying that it was true
that Portugal had "some doubts" about recognition, and said
that all the international law experts Portugal consulted
believed that a Kosovar unilateral declaration of
independence was contrary to international law and advised
the government not to recognize Kosovo. That being said,
Portugal is a strong believer in solidarity and has remained
committed to KFOR and the EU on the ground, with 300 troops
in KFOR, troops that are often on the front lines in
Mitrovica, where other nations had chosen not to operate. He
mentioned, briefly, that it was "easier" for the Portuguese
to operate because Portugal had not yet recognized, but did
not pursue that thought. "We decided we would wait for the
results of the (Serbian) elections, and we are very pleased
with the results. We believe that they create the conditions
needed for a dialogue, so we are in a position to take a
decision soon." A series of events had made that decision
easier: EU offer of a stabilization and association agreement
to Serbia; evidence that the youth of Serbia want to be
partners with Europe, not Russia; the fact that the Kosovars
have shown that they are living up to their commitments to
respect minorities under the Ahtissari plan; and, perhaps
most importantly, the need for EU consensus. "We are members
of the EU and aware of the importance of solidarity. We are
not going to take a decision with great enthusiasm, but the
elections may have created conditions for an open dialogue
and for avoiding fragmentation. The matter will be solved
soon. I know the (Serbian) president and he is committed to
democracy and links to the West."


4. (C/NF) In any case, "the problem is not Portugal. No
BRICS country has recognized, no Portuguese-speaking country
has recognized, only 36 or 37 of the 196 countries in the UN
have recognized."


5. (C/NF) Ambassador interjected to note that Portugal had
succeeded in making Kosovo an EU issue and had helped create
the framework for recognition by member states. Portugal's
recognition would thus send a strong message about EU
solidarity and move Russia and Serbia toward a clear
understanding that Kosovo's independence was inevitable.
Cavaco Silva nodded and said, "It is likely that Portugal and
two other countries--the Czech Republic and who else? (he
turned to an aide who did not answer the question)--will
recognize soon, maybe on the same day." Because the Serbian
elections went well and the Kosovars are behaving well, this
is also good for swaying public opinion to accept recognition.

LISBON 00001155 002.2 OF 003



AFGHANISTAN: UNFAIR TO SAY PORTUGAL HAS NOT DONE ITS BEST


6. (C/NF) Ambassador began by praising Portugal's long-term
effective military involvement with NATO in Afghanistan,
relayed SACEUR General Craddock's appreciation for the
Portuguese forces' work there, and expressed gratitude for
Portugal's deployment of two OMLTs and a C-130 team. The
Ambassador then said, "Mr. President, I ask you, as Commander
in Chief, to reconsider the decision to withdraw your company
of commandos, or to consider redeploying them to Afghanistan
as soon as possible after they return. Because you have been
such a strong supporter of ISAF, your recall of the Quick
Reaction Force (QRF) sends the wrong psychological and
military message at a time in which NATO's credibility is at
stake."


7. (C/NF) With the exception of a candid explanation of the
inter-political party consensus building required to maintain
Portugal's commitment to ISAF, Cavaco Silva's response was
the familiar litany we have heard from many other GOP
interlocutors. Portugal is and has been committed to NATO
and ISAF, Portugal's troops serve without caveats (the
President noted that they are now serving on the Pakistan
border at great risk),Portugal's commitments in Kosovo,
Bosnia, Timor Leste, Chad, and Lebanon have stretched our
forces thin, and finally that Portugal provided one OMLT then
two in order to help the Afghans realize that they have to
provide their own security. In his only sign of
defensiveness on any issue, Cavaco Silva ended his
justification with, "It is unfair to say that Portugal has
not done its best."


8. (C/NF) Cavaco Silva then stated in four or five
different ways that it is possible that the QRF will be
redeployed to Afghanistan. Although the government and
military had decided to withdraw the QRF, it was only to
"examine the situation" and "have room to consider future
requirements." "This does not mean we won't reconsider it in
the future. This does not mean it's a decision forever, Mr.
Ambassador." Kosovo, for example, may need police, not army,
deployed. "That may create possibilities (NB: presumably by
freeing them for service in Afghanistan, although he did not
say that)." Cavaco Silva noted that the armed forces were
going through comprehensive reform precisely to make them
more suitable to serve as "an instrument of foreign policy
and cooperation." In any case, "We may re-examine this in
the future."


9. (C/NF) Cavaco Silva then provided a glimpse of internal
Portuguese decision-making that was new to us. "You know
that in Portugal we try to find consensus between the two
major political parties. (NB: Cavaco Silva is from the PSD,
currently the opposition party to the PS majority in the
assembly.) Iraq created a split and made us realize that we
had to prevent--in the case of casualties--that a party take
political advantage. For Afghanistan, we are able to have
the support of the opposition. This has been a matter of
private discussion and this is what we decided."

GUANTANAMO DETAINEE FLIGHTS: REMBER, WE'RE ON YOUR SIDE


10. (S/NF) In what was a non sequitur, the President raised
the issue of Guantanamo detainee flights. "As you know, this
issue of flights to the Azores has created problems for our
government. The government has been clear and has told the
truth, but that does not prevent EU parliamentarians and
London NGOs from coming here and talking to the press and
creating problems." Ambassador noted only that he agreed
with Portugal's public statements that to his knowledge no
laws had been broken. Cavaco Silva continued, saying, "this
issue has created difficulties." In almost an aside, he
said, "You know, we may have complaints, but we have a very
mild press. Just like our extreme left never causes
problems("

EUROPEAN ENERGY SECURITY: LIGHT AT THE END OF THE PIPELINE


11. (C/NF) Ambassador asked if he might raise another issue
he knew was important to the President: European energy
policy. He said that he had watched with some alarm as
European nations and companies took a short-term approach to
energy security and diversification and rushed to sign deals
with Gazprom, even though we know that Russia is not above
using energy as a political weapon. Where is the long-term
European strategy that sees the big picture and prevents
Gazprom from controlling European energy supplies?


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12. (C/NF) Cavaco Silva replied that he agreed that energy
security was a key point on the European agenda, but he also
believed that the EC--particularly under Barroso--was taking
steps to ensure that Europe would have a sensible energy
policy. First of all, the encouragement of renewables was
critical in the long-term. Second, since Gazprom is
essentially a sovereign fund, the implementation of a code of
conduct for sovereign funds and the insistence on
transparency would help mitigate the problem. Third, the EU's
engagement with Russia--"although we don't know how this will
be with the new president; maybe the same"--was key to
thinking long-term. "I'm not as pessimistic as you. Our
attention to this issue is recent, but we are making
progress."

SPEAKING OF ENERGY, DID YOU NOTICE THAT OUR PRIME MINISTER IS
IN VENEZUELA TODAY?


13. (S/NF) While talking about European energy security,
Cavaco Silva noted that Prime Minister Jose Socrates is in
Venezuela today, largely to sign an energy agreement. Fully
aware of our concerns about Venezuela, he proactively
offered, "You have to understand our position. We have five
hundred thousand Portuguese there. We know--and I've met
him--that he's a crazy man, but("


14. (S/NF) Cavaco Silva then praised Brazilian President
Lula's engagement with Chavez, saying, "You know, Lula tells
me he has to spend six or eight days a year trying to talk
Chavez into being sensible. Explaining basic things to him,
encouraging him to be reasonable. And Chavez says he
understands and will be reasonable yet goes out of control
again. I am very fond of Lula. He is wise and realistic and
is doing an excellent job."

BIO NOTES:


15. (S/NF) As always, Cavaco Silva looked tanned, fit, and
impeccably dressed. He was warm and friendly throughout the
meeting. He seemed genuinely happy to see the Ambassador. A
smile rarely left his lips. Despite the fact that he knew in
advance that the issues the Ambassador wanted to discuss were
sources of some tension with his country--and more
specifically with what is generally understood to be his role
in making the decisions that caused the tension--he remained
calm throughout and proactively brought up two other issues
that have caused tension. He betrayed slight
nervousness--expressed by a short, high-pitched giggle--on
two occasions: in discussing Guantanamo flights and in
raising Venezuela.

COMMENT:


16. (C/NF) While we are not surprised by what Cavaco Silva
had to say on Kosovo or Afghanistan, his responses were
surely as positive as we could have hoped for. The
Ambassador made our positions very clear. Although the
Ambassador had raised this with the Ministers of Foreign
Affairs and Defense and military leaders, this was the first
time we had explicitly asked the President to keep Portugal's
QRF in Afghanistan). It was also a bit surprising that
Cavaco Silva had no agenda items of his own, other than the
short interlude about Guantanamo flights. Perhaps most
telling was that although the President's diplomatic
assistant emphasized before the meeting that it would last
"no longer" than half an hour, the Ambassador and President
talked for exactly an hour. We will, of course, continue to
push on Kosovo and Afghanistan.

Stephenson