Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08LILONGWE723
2008-12-19 08:38:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Lilongwe
Cable title:  

MALAWI CONGRESS PARTY - THE GEOGRAPHIC CENTER OF

Tags:  PGOV KDEM MI 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0561
RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLG #0723/01 3540838
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 190838Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0196
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000723 

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI CONGRESS PARTY - THE GEOGRAPHIC CENTER OF
POLITICS

REF: A. LILONGWE 646

B. LILONGWE 56

LILONGWE 00000723 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Peter Bodde for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000723

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI CONGRESS PARTY - THE GEOGRAPHIC CENTER OF
POLITICS

REF: A. LILONGWE 646

B. LILONGWE 56

LILONGWE 00000723 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Peter Bodde for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: The Malawi Congress Party (MCP) remains
dominant in the Central region of Malawi, but the party is
unlikely to attract voters in the South and the North. While
party president John Tembo claims he and the party have
evolved since his days as the right-hand man of dictator
Hasting "Kamuzu" Banda, Tembo remains a typical "big man" who
has purged the party leadership of potential rivals.
Although selecting a strong vice-presidential candidate from
another region would improve the MCP's chances of victory in
2009 polls, Tembo's advanced age makes MCP leadership wary of
positioning someone from outside their party to take over. A
potential alliance with the United Democratic Front (UDF)
that could pair Tembo with a UDF vice-presidential nominee
remains a possibility, but only if courts bar former
president Bakili Muluzi from standing as a presidential
candidate. Comment: Even without an alliance, the MCP is
likely, at a minimum, to retain most of its current 54 seats
in the National Assembly. Furthermore, higher population
growth rates in the Central region have shifted demographics
in the MCP's favor, making Tembo the biggest threat to
Mutharika's reelection in 2009. End Summary.

Few Changes from the Days of Banda
--------------


2. (C) The Malawi Congress Party has existed since Malawi's
independence in 1964, and was the only legal party in the
country from 1966 until 1993. As the party of former
dictator, Dr. Hastings "Kamuzu" Banda, its influence
diminished with the advent of multi-party democracy in 1994.
However, due to stalwart support in the Central region,
particularly from members of the Chewa tribe, the party
remains politically relevant today. While party president
John Tembo claims that he and the MCP have changed (ref A),
the former Banda right-hand man remains a prototypical "big
man" who does not tolerate challenges to his authority. In
his November meeting with the Ambassador, Tembo sought to
rebrand himself as a defender of democracy, saying
development without rule of law was not acceptable. However,
since regaining control of the party in 2003, Tembo has

forced out both past and potential rivals, leaving it unclear
which leaders might succeed the 76-year-old president.


3. (C) On the same day Tembo proudly extolled that the MCP
had changed its spots at the party's convention, MCP party
spokesman Ishmael Chafukira told emboff that Tembo engineered
the surprise ouster of Beston Majoni as Secretary General of
the party. Tembo, upon hearing rumors that Majoni intended
to run for the party's presidency, swayed district leaders to
vote for a party newcomer with no political experience as its
new Secretary General. Up to that point, Majoni was
considered one of Tembo's closest advisors and staunchest
defenders. He now avoids Tembo except at public events.
Tembo claimed to the Ambassador that this change was
emblematic of the youthfulness and democracy of the "new"
MCP. Not only was Tembo unopposed for the party's
presidency, but the MCP slogan was modified to include the
new big man: "Banda, Founder of the Nation; Tembo, Leader of
the Party."


4. (C) The August death of Respicious Dzanjialimodzi from an
allergic reaction to medication also weakened the MCP's
leadership ranks. Dzanjialimodzi, the shadow finance
minister who was married to Banda's niece, was the most
well-respected MCP legislator in the National Assembly and an
experienced civil servant. Many believed that
Dzanjialimodzi, who came from the same district of Dedza as
Tembo, was not only the heir to the MCP throne, but an
individual who could appeal to people outside the Central
region. His sudden death under unusual circumstances brought
back rumors of Tembo's involvement in the 1983 murders of
four political rivals in Mwanza. (Comment: Tembo was tried
and acquitted of the murders in 1995.) Chafukira commented
that the dismissal of Majoni and death of Dzanjialimodzi have
left Tembo surrounded by "yes men" precisely at a time when
independent thinkers could aid his preparations for his 2009
presidential run.

Strong in the Center, Little Support Elsewhere
-------------- -


5. (C) The MCP continues to have near-fanatical support in
the rural areas of Malawi's Central Region. Despite efforts

LILONGWE 00000723 002.2 OF 002


to expand its political base since 2005, Chafukira said the
party continues to have trouble finding willing parliamentary
candidates, much less mounting successful campaigns, beyond
its usual base. He expected the MCP to have a chance in only
a handful of constituencies outside of the Central region.
However, in the center, the party has been overwhelmed with
candidates and numerous primaries have devolved into
in-fighting. Primary battles are fiercely contested because
most candidates believe winning the nomination is akin to
winning the parliamentary seat.

Vice-Presidential Predicament
--------------


6. (C) The narrow regional base of the MCP is making the
selection of a vice-presidential candidate difficult for
Tembo. Tradition holds that the VP must hail from a
different region than the presidential candidate for the
ticket to have a chance. Given Tembo's advanced age, many in
the MCP fear putting a strong Southern region candidate such
as People's Progressive Movement (PPM) leader Mark
Katsonga-Phiri on the ticket as VP. Chafukira said the risk
of Tembo dying in office and the resultant shift of power
back to the South could outweigh the potential vote gains a
strong Southern VP could deliver. Instead, the party hopes
to find a more inexperienced politician who would be beholden
to the MCP in the event of Tembo's death. However, Chafukira
admitted the party had yet to identify such a figure.

UDF Alliance Still a Possibility
--------------


7. (C) Some in the MCP still hold out hope of an alliance
with former president Bakili Muluzi's United Democratic Front
(UDF). Over the past four years, the MCP and UDF have worked
well together in a loose coalition to oppose President
Mutharika. While we believe there is no way Tembo would
agree to run as a vice-presidential candidate to Muluzi, it
is possible that another UDF candidate -- not Muluzi -- would
agree to run as Tembo's VP. Both the late Dzanjialimodzi and
Atupele Muluzi, son of the former president, confided to
emboff that if the courts refuse to allow Muluzi to run for
president in 2009, a UDF lieutenant will likely be paired
with Tembo on a joint MCP/UDF ticket.

Comment: Tembo - Still A Formidable Foe
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Comment: Despite it history under Banda's one-party
state, the MCP continues to maintain the strongest party
organization in the country. It is likely to remain one of
the dominant political forces in the country even after John
Tembo leaves the scene. The party should capture close to 60
of the 193 parliamentary seats. With no party likely to gain
an absolute parliamentary majority, the MCP will be
well-positioned to lead a post-election coalition in
Parliament. If Muluzi agrees to align with Tembo, the UDF's
still significant support in the Southern region could
deliver Tembo a majority of the presidential votes. Even
without an alliance, Malawi's shifting demographics may favor
the MCP. While the South remains the most populous region
with 45% of the population, the vote will be divided between
Mutharika's DPP and the UDF. The Center meanwhile has grown
from 38% of the national population 20 years ago to over 42%
today. This growth, combined with limited DPP penetration
into the Center and split UDF/DPP loyalties in the South,
will make Tembo a formidable foe in the presidential race.
End Comment.
BODDE