MALAWI: UNITED DEMOCRATIC FRONT - NO LONGER UNITED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LILONGWE 000056

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S - ELIZABETH PELLETREAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI: UNITED DEMOCRATIC FRONT - NO LONGER UNITED
OR DEMOCRATIC


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1. (C) Summary: The United Democratic Front (UDF) governed
Malawi from its return to democracy in 1994 until President
Mutharika's unexpected break with the UDF in 2005. Former
President Bakili Muluzi continues to preside over the UDF,
but his grip on both the party and its mostly southern
electorate appears to be weakening. After alienating many
top party officials and presidential hopefuls by imposing
Mutharika as the presidential candidate in the 2004
elections, Muluzi continues to lose the support of
high-ranking party members by insisting on running again
himself in 2009. Several influential UDF members confided to
Emboffs that even if court rulings eventually resolve legal
questions concerning another Muluzi presidential term, the
lack of democracy within the party could prompt a number of
key figures to strike out on their own, or flee to
Mutharika's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Most
potential competitors within the UDF are afraid to confront
Muluzi publicly, however, and appear to be hoping that court
rulings or popular pressure will force the former president
to step aside. COMMENT: A crumbling UDF is good for
President Mutharika, since the latter also hopes to harvest
most of his votes in 2009 from Malawi's populous southern
region. In the long term, however, the UDF's collapse would
mark the end of the vibrant, diverse political organization
that helped deliver Malawi from dictatorship. End Summary.


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The Decline of a Democratic Movement
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2. (C) The UDF was originally formed in 1991 as an
underground organization by a diverse group of Malawian
professionals from around the country who sought an end to
the dictatorship of Hastings "Kamazu" Banda. The UDF worked
with a few other like-minded organizations to achieve a
negotiated and relatively bloodless transition to multiparty
democracy by 1994. The UDF soon found itself the strongest
political vehicle in Malawi. Bakili Muluzi, then the
vice-chairman of the Malawi Chamber of Commerce, was one of
the organization's founding members, though not its most
prominent or politically experienced one. Muluzi
nevertheless used his relative wealth and appeal as a Muslim
southerner to win the presidency of the UDF, and subsequently
its nomination for president. Muluzi and the UDF won the
country's first multiparty elections in 1994 and, after a
relatively successful first term, won a second five-year
mandate in 1999. Muluzi spent much of his second term
scheming for a third term, however, despite the fact that a
third term would have required a Constitutional amendment.
When a bill to allow re-re-election eventually failed in
Parliament, Muluzi violated UDF by-laws and customs by
imposing a hand-picked presidential candidate, the
little-known vice chair of the central bank Bingu Mutharika,
on a reluctant UDF leadership. Several highly regarded UDF
leaders deserted the party's ranks at that time. The UDF's
continuing political strength -- and possibly some electoral
machinations -- gave Mutharika victory in 2004 elections, but
Mutharika soon turned on his political godfather and formed
his own political party, the DPP. Contrary to initial
predictions of doom for the new president, Mutharika and his
DPP have steadily increased their strength and influence
using the power of the presidency, mostly at the expense of
the UDF. Defections from the UDF to the new ruling party led
to a loss of 44 seats in the National Assembly, leaving the
rival Malawi Congress Party (MCP) with the largest bloc in
parliament.

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Next Generation Bridles Under Muluzi's Grip
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3. (C) Despite the negative fallout from his choice of
Mutharika, as well as negative public perceptions of
corruption and inflation in his second term, former president
Muluzi announced in mid-2007 that he intended to stand again
as a candidate for president in 2009. The Malawian
constitution states that a president can serve for a maximum
of two consecutive terms, and so Muluzi and his associates
have argued that since a third term would not be consecutive,
he is eligible to stand. Those involved with drafting
Malawi's 1995 Constitution have stated that the intention of
the framers was to limit presidents to a total of two terms,
and ruling party spokesman have at various times suggested
that the courts would ultimately rule against Muluzi's
argument. The GOM made no moves toward challenging Muluzi's
candidacy in court, perhaps in order to time any injunction

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so as to leave the UDF with no time to regroup before the
election. In recent months, however, a little-known lawyer
named James Phiri has requested a ruling on the Muluzi
question. An early and very Machiavellian interpretation of
Phiri's intervention was that it was bankrolled by Muluzi
himself, to stand up a straw man with a weak legal team
against a phalanx of Muluzi lawyers to get the ruling Muluzi
wanted. But in early January 2008, Muluzi supporters
publicly stated that a group of senior UDF leaders who want
Muluzi to step aside had planned and bankrolled Phiri's legal
petition.


4. (C) No fewer than four senior UDF party members have
expressed interest in running for the nomination if Muluzi
would step out of the way and let the party decide its
nominee through an open democratic process. The potential
candidates include current Vice-President Cassim Chilumpha,
former Minister of Finance Friday Jumbe, UDF Party Spokesman
Sam Mpasu, and UDF founder and MP Brown Mpinganjira, who ran
as an independent candidate for president in 2004 before
returning to the UDF. News reports claim that VP Chilumpha,
who stands accused of plotting to kill President Mutharika
but is out on bail, has convened several meetings at his
residence of senior UDF leaders who oppose Muluzi's
candidacy. While several leaders harbor ambitions for
themselves and concern for the party, however, none has been
willing to openly challenge Muluzi for the nomination. All
appear to be hoping that either a court ruling or public
pressure will force Muluzi to abandon the race. Although
there has not been a final legal ruling, many in the UDF
leadership view Muluzi's liberal interpretation of the
Constitution as dubious. In a separate conversation with
emboffs, even Muluzi's son Atupele, a UDF member of
parliament, said that it was time for Malawi to have some new
blood in politics. While the younger Muluzi was carefully
deferential when speaking about his father and his attempt to
run for president again, he said that all of the likely
presidential candidates for 2009 were still of the generation
of independence and Dr. Banda. It was sad, he said, that
2014 was the earliest that a new generation of candidates
would emerge. (Note: Atupele Muluzi will not have reached
the constitutionally-mandated age of 35 to run for president
in 2009, but will be eligible in 2014.) Atupele, a
British-educated lawyer, also echoed the need for a
democratic selection process within the party for the nominee.

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Base Still Supports Muluzi
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5. (C) MP and former UDF minister Friday Jumbe told emboffs
that while the elites within the UDF don't want Muluzi to be
the party's nominee, much of party's the rank and file still
support him, thanks in part to the former president's
generous use of his wealth. Still, Jumbe estimated that 75%
of the party believed that court rulings would ultimately
prevent a third Muluzi run for the presidency. Jumbe
maintained that while Muluzi does not support the core
finances of the party, his personal expenditures on pet
projects in the name of the UDF have maintained his support
with the electorate. Jumbe confided that party finances are
very weak and without help, the UDF could be out of money by
June. Jumbe suggested that a Muluzi nomination could lead to
more UDF leaders to form new parties, or join Mutharika's
DPP.

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Party Spokesman Drops the Party Line
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6. (C) Of the UDF's senior leadership, only party spokesman
Sam Mpasu has criticized publicly the lack of democracy
within the UDF, and has even gone so far as to say that
Muluzi has no chance of winning a general election. Mpasu
told emboffs in mid-January that Muluzi changed the UDF's
image from that of a democratic movement in 1994 to a party
of intimidation and one-man rule in 2008. He commented that
President Mutharika's break with UDF and subsequent
"persecution" of the party on corruption charges has further
weakened the party's image. Mpasu posited that without a
democratic selection process for its presidential nominee,
the UDF was likely doomed. He also said that Muluzi's
insistence on running despite lacking a clear legal basis
would handicap the party, since the ruling will likely come
too late for the UDF to replace Muluzi as its candidate.
Mpasu's outspoken criticisms logically resulted in his
dismissal as party spokesman in late January, though he

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remains a member of the national executive committee for the
moment.

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Comment: Weak UDF Improves Mutharika's Chances in 2009
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7. (C) Three likely scenarios have been sketched out to
emboffs by various members of the UDF concerning the party's
future. They are:

-- Muluzi is declared unable to legally stand for a third
term, in which case most party insiders believe he will leave
for the United Kingdom and abandon both UDF and Malawi for
good.

-- UDF leaders force the issue and choose another nominee.
perhaps by calling a convention without Muluzi's blessing (or
financing). Most UDF insiders believe that in this
situation, effectively a party split, Muluzi would turn on
and attack the UDF, seriously weakening its 2009 campaign.

-- Muluzi remains the party's nominee, in which case most
UDF insiders believe the party will suffer not only a
presidential defeat but also a further erosion of the party's
share of the National Assembly.

Unfortunately, few UDF members are optimistic that a fourth
scenario, in which Muluzi gracefully steps aside and supports
his party's effort to choose its own nominee, is at all
likely.


8. (C) Unless former president Muluzi unexpectedly bows out,
President Mutharika is likely to reap significant benefits
from a much weaker UDF in the 2009 elections. Mutharika also
hails from the south, as do most of the MPs he has lured away
from the UDF to join the new ruling DPP. The President will
likely need to win at least half of the vote in Malawi's
populous south in order to prevail on the national level -- a
task which would otherwise be difficult given the DPP's
immature grassroots political machinery. If UDF activists
are divided and demoralized by party infighting and/or a
diminished nominee like Muluzi, however, the DPP may find its
work considerably easier.


9. (C) It would appear that in the long term, Malawi stands
to lose a considerable democratic asset if the UDF collapses
over the next year or two. At one time, the UDF pulled
together a distinguished group of leaders who were able to
transcend Malawi's traditional regional divisions in order to
achieve a transition to multiparty democracy. It may be,
however, that the UDF has already lost its ability to
mobilize a broad swathe of Malawian voters for a higher
purpose, and has instead deteriorated into the kind of
hollow, personalistic political vehicle that is all too
common in Africa. This, we would say, also describes
Mutharika's DPP.

END COMMENT
EASTHAM