MALAWI: COUP RUMORS, ARRESTS CLOUD POLITICAL NEGOTIATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LILONGWE 000280

C O R R E C T E D COPY//CHANGED TEXT IN PARA 10//

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S - E. PELLETREAU
MCC FOR DIEDRA FAIR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINS KDEM MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI: COUP RUMORS, ARRESTS CLOUD POLITICAL NEGOTIATIONS

REF: LILONGWE 263

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Classified By: DCM KEVIN SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (C) Summary: Five prominent members of the opposition
United Democratic Front (UDF) party and three active duty
generals in the Malawi Defense Forces (MDF) have been
detained in connection with an alleged plot to overthrow
President Mutharika. The arrests occurred on May 13, casting
a long shadow over once-promising negotiations between
opposition parties and the GOM to resolve the long-standing
paralysis of parliament (reftel). A document purporting to
detail the alleged plot says the UDF would first attempt to
impeach Mutharika and if that failed would resort to a
forceful takeover of the government. Former president
Muluzi's home was searched, but no illegal weapons were found
at his residence. Leader of UDF in the National Assembly
George Mtafu has continued to say his party is willing to
negotiate over the impasse and the UDF, along with other
opposition parties, restarted negotiations with government on
May 15 that were still ongoing on May 16. Comment: While the
alleged plot cannot be dismissed out of hand, the "evidence"
released so far against the eight accused appears highly
questionable. The timing of Mutharika's claims has led some
to speculate that his ultimate goal may be to declare a state
of emergency that would allow him to rule by decree without
parliamentary approval for 28 days, long enough to approve
next year's budget without dealing with the opposition's
agenda. End Comment. End Summary.

Rally Comments Equate Section 65 to Treason
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2. (SBU) During a May 11 rally, President Mutharika accused
his predecessor, Bakili Muluzi, of planning to overthrow the
government using Section 65 of the Constitution. Section 65
requires members of parliament who change parties after they
are elected to vacate their seats. He used similar language
in a collective briefing to the diplomatic corps on May 15,
without reference to any vehicle other than Section 65 to
"depose" the government. The President's aggressive comments
at the rally surprised many observers who believed that the
GOM had made a strategic shift toward negotiations with the
opposition through talks that had begun only the week before.


Alleged Coup Plot Leads to Arrests - And Rumors Run Rampant
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3. (SBU) On May 13, police arrested UDF secretary general
Kennedy Mwakwangwala, former Blantyre mayor John Chikakwiya,
former inspector general of the Malawi Police Service Joseph
Aironi, former Malawi Police commissioner Matthews
Masoapyola, and former commander of the Malawi Defense Force
(MDF) Joseph Chimbayo. They were subsequently charged with
treason. Both Chimbayo and Aironi were removed in 2005 by
Mutharika for perceived loyalty to Muluzi. In addition,
three active-duty military generals - Brig. Marcel Chirwa,
Director of Personnel, Brig. Cosgrove Mituka, Inspector
General of the MDF, and Brig. Juvenalis Mtende, Commander of
the Zomba Air Wing - were also detained for questioning, but
we do not believe they have been charged yet. State
prosecutors have now asked for an extension of their
detention from 48 hours to 14 days to complete their
investigation. Asked about this series of arrests, Mutharika,
on May 15, declined to elaborate beyond official releases.
Despite rumors of a long list of additional arrest targets
that included opposition party leaders, NGO leaders who have
spoken out on the Section 65 issue, and more active duty
police and military personnel, no further arrests have yet
been made.


4. (SBU) Rumor also has it that government has issued an
arrest warrant for Bakili Muluzi. Muluzi is currently in the
United Kingdom, but his lawyer told emboff that he believes
the former president will be arrested upon his return. This
flies in the face of the announcement to the press by
Minister of Home Affairs and Internal Security Ernest
Malenga, that the government had no intelligence reports
indicating either Muluzi, or Malawi Congress Party (MCP)
leader John Tembo was in on the coup plot.

"Intercepted" Document Details Coup Plot
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5. (C) Malenga claimed that the government had developed
intelligence about a UDF plot to overthrow the government on

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May 16, 2008. The government is basing its claim on
"top-secret" document supposedly intercepted from the UDF.
The document, allegedly written by Kennedy Mwakangwala to
Chimbayo, Aironi, Mituka, Chirwa, Mtende, and Mr. Chitsulo
Gama, former leader of the Malawi National Intelligence
Bureau, details the alleged coup plot. According to the
letter, Plan "A" was to convince the Speaker of the National
Assembly to invoke Section 65, giving MCP and UDF a two-third
supermajority that would allow them to impeach President
Mutharika. Once deposed, a new government with Muluzi as
president and Tembo as vice-president would be installed. If
this plan could not be realized by May 16, then the
recipients were to move on to "Plan B" -- a military-led
takeover of the government.


6. (C) According to the document, in Plan "B", Chimbayo was
to mobilize retired and active-duty army officers still loyal
to him in Lilongwe and Zomba with the assistance of Mituka,
Chirwa, and Mtende. Aironi was to mobilize policemen and try
to convince current Inspector General Kumbambe to side with
the coup plotters. All were instructed to use finances to
buy support and seek out those unhappy with their current
ranks or salaries. Plan "B" called for six groups, Group 1
to secure the New State House in Lilongwe, Group 2 to secure
Sanjika Palace (the presidential residence in Blantyre),
Group 3 to take over Malawi Broadcasting Corporation (MBC)
and Television Malawi (TVM) in Blantyre, and Group 4 to do
the same in Lilongwe. Group 5 was charged with arresting
current MDF commander Marko Chiziko and Group 6 with
arresting cabinet ministers. These actions were to take
place on May 16.


7. (C) Once taking over government and installing Muluzi as
the new president, the document says the alleged plotters
planned to justify their actions based on:

-- Mutharika's disregard of the rule of law, human rights,
and freedom of the press.
-- Mutharika's robbing of civil servants of their pensions.
-- Mutharika's favoritism toward Thyolo (his home town) and
the Northern region for prime positions.
-- Mutharika's food support for Zimbabawe and collaboration
with Robert Mugabe.
-- Mutharika's arresting of UDF officials "without offenses."
-- Mutharika's instructions to MBC and TVM to broadcast
programs insulting Muluzi.

(Comment: We have seen the document and disbelieve in toto
its authenticity. End Comment.)

Muluzi's Home Searched, No Weapons Found
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8. (SBU) On May 14, police attempted to enter Muluzi's home
outside of Blantyre, but were stopped by Muluzi's guards (who
are also active-duty police) due to Muluzi's absence and the
lack of a search warrant. On May 15, police returned and two
were allowed to search the premises. Despite MBC reports
from the previous day that a large cache of weapons was at
Muluzi's residence, only five guns belonging to Muluzi's
security officers were found. In addition to Bakili Muluzi's
residence, police have also searched the residence of Atupele
Muluzi, the former president's son and a UDF MP.

UDF Cites Previous Treason Claims, Offers to Continue Talks
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9. (SBU) In response to GOM claims about a plot, UDF leaders
publicly pointed out that this is now the third time that
President Mutharika has attempted to charge UDF members with
treason. The first arrests were in January 2005 following a
meeting at Sanjika Palace where three MPs were accused of
having knives and a pistol in their vehicles. Charges were
dropped and one MP successfully sued for 14,000 USD in
damages. The second case involved vice-president Chilumpha,
who has been under house arrest facing treason charges for
attempted assassination of President Mutharika for over two
years, but has yet to be tried. At the same time, the
party's reaction has remained somewhat muted; George Mtafu,
the UDF's leader in the National Assembly, downplayed the
coup claims and continues to stress he is willing to meet
with government to negotiate an end to the political impasse
in the National Assembly. Talks between the government, the
UDF, and other opposition parties were restarted May 15 and
were still ongoing on May 16.

COMMENT: Peace and Patience Greet Suspect Evidence

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10. (C) Comment: In an eventful week, Malawians reacted with
surprising calm to the claims of an attempted coup. There
have been no demonstrations or reports of violence; locals
seem more dismayed about the ongoing inaction in parliament
than about a possible attempt to overthrow the president.
The main impact has been frenetic gossip and speculation
which have obscured what few facts there are, and have
"connected the dots" between events that are probably not
connected at all. The terrible Malawian press has contributed
to the confusion. While it cannot be dismissed out of hand,
the "evidence" released so far against the eight accused
appears highly questionable The "top secret" UDF document
that details the takeover plan is suspiciously forthright
about the alleged plotters plans and intentions, and its
provenance is unknown. Additional evidence references a June
2008 meeting that has obviously not yet taken place. None of
the documents are signed and the defense lawyers have pointed
out it would be impossible to authenticate them.


11. (C) The timing of Mutharika's claims - just days after
opposition leaders made it clear to him that they would
compromise on, but not abandon, Section 65 - has led some to
speculate that Mutharika's ultimate goal may be to declare a
state of emergency that would allow him to rule by decree
without parliamentary approval for 28 days, long enough to
approve next year's budget without dealing with the
opposition's agenda. If the coup plot claims are ultimately
proven false, however, they could well serve as a rallying
cry for Malawi's demoralized opposition and reinvigorate the
UDF going into next year's elections. End Comment.
EASTHAM