MALAWI: ANALYSTS CRITICIZE MUTHARIKA, BUT EXPECT HIM TO WIN

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TAGS: PGOV
SUBJECT: MALAWI: ANALYSTS CRITICIZE MUTHARIKA, BUT EXPECT HIM TO WIN
AGAIN IN 2009



1. (SBU) Summary: Five of Malawi's most influential political
scientists told poloff that President Mutharika, while ably managing
the economy, has not upheld the rule of law; some fear that he may
become more autocratic if his party can win a majority in the
upcoming elections. Regionalism remains strong in party
identification, while religion plays little role. The three major
party leaders all have roots in the post-independence government and
have discouraged the next generation of leaders from emerging.
While all five political scientists felt former President Muluzi's
attempt to run for president in 2009 is legally dubious, some
suggested that if Muluzi competes, he could fracture the populous
south enough to give Malawi Congress Party (MCP) candidate John
Tembo a chance at the presidency. However, most agreed that
Mutharika's economic progress will ensure his re-election as
president, but will not guarantee the Democratic Progressive Party a
majority in Parliament.


2. (SBU) In November 2007, poloff discussed the current political
situation with five of the most influential and often-quoted
political scientists in Malawi. University of Malawi Associate
Professor Dr. Blessings Chinsinga is a specialist in development
economics but is often quoted regarding rule of law issues. Dr.
Mustafa Hussein is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Malawi on
Political and Administrative Studies. Noel Mbowela is an Assistant
Lecturer at Mzuzu University in the sparsely populated but
politically important northern region of Malawi. Rafik Hajat and Dr.
Nadini Patel are Director and Deputy Director at the Institute for
Policy Interaction (IPI),a public policy think tank. Hajat is also
a former office holder in the United Democratic Front (UDF) party
and was among the framers of the current Malawian constitution back
in 1993-1994.

President Mutharika and the Rule of Law
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3. (SBU) The analysts agreed that while President Mutharika is
doing a commendable job on the economy, he is failing to provide
steady political leadership. They also charged that Mutharika has
failed to uphold the rule of law. Most believed the dismissal of
the National Assembly last September was clearly meant to prevent
the Speaker from implementing floor-crossing legislation which would
have weakened the ruling party. Hussein singled out the
administration's failure to hold constitutionally-mandated local
government elections in 2005 as President Mutharika's clearest
violation of the law. Hajat commented that if Mutharika's
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) were to gain a majority in
Parliament in 2009, the President's style of one-man rule would
likely worsen. While all were concerned about the 2009 elections,
all believed the elections would take place as scheduled.

Regionalism a Factor in Politics, Religion not
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4. (SBU) All of the analysts agree that regionalism remains a major
factor in Malawian politics. The UDF remains a southern region
party, while the MCP still has the central region as its stronghold.
Mutharika's DPP has strong support in the south but has made headway
in the central region as well. Mbowela added that the demise of
Alliance for Democracy's (AFORD),which previously dominated the
northern region, has created a vacuum which is likely to be filled
by the DPP. While all agreed there are no significant ideological
or policy differences among the parties, Hussein said that DPP's
focus on economic development, food security, and anti-corruption
held promise if the party could continue to deliver on its promises.
Most agreed that DPP had the best chance to have national reach,
but parliamentary elections, not presidential, would be the true
indicator of its success.


5. (SBU) The analysts agreed religion is not a factor in Malawian
politics. According to Hussein, himself a Muslim, former President
Muluzi should not expect automatic Muslim support for his comeback
bid. He said the Muslim community has seen more economic development
under Mutharika than they had under Muluzi and that factor will
influence the Muslim vote more than religion. Hussein added that
the fact that the Muslim community has not rallied to Vice President
Chilumpha's side in his treason trial is another sign that religious
affiliation is not aligned to political affiliation.


Succession and the Next Generation of Leaders
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6. (SBU) The analysts pointed out that tight control of the major
political parties by their leaders has made it very difficult for a
new generation of leaders to emerge. Chisinga referred to the
situation as a "time bomb" for Malawi's politics. He argued that the
fact that most national political leaders have been in politics
since independence in 1964 bespeaks a culture hostile to leadership
regeneration. Hajat believed that leadership talent existed, but
those who control the parties needed to let it rise. He commented
that autocratic governments were a logical outcome when leaders rule

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their own parties in the same manner.

Muluzi in 2009?
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7. (SBU) Analysts see former President Muluzi's bid to stand for
president in 2009 as legally dubious. However, a majority believe
that Muluzi will find a way to stand. Few gave Muluzi much chance
to win the presidential election outright; and Hajat and Patel
believed other UDF candidates could have a stronger chance. Hajat
and Patel both believe Muluzi will act as a spoiler by splitting the
vote in the southern region with President Mutharika, thus giving
MCP Leader John Tembo an opening to take the presidency with the
backing of his central region stronghold.


8. (SBU) Mbowela argued that even with Muluzi in the race,
Mutharika will still win the 2009 election with a majority of the
votes. Mbowela argued that Mutharika is likely to win due to the
success of his agricultural policy of subsidizing fertilizer.


9. (SBU) Comment: The five political analysts are the most quoted
and consulted by Malawi's media; their repeated exposure has allowed
them to influence and shape public opinion as well as assess it.
While their pointed comments on human rights, rule of law, and
democracy help to provide a check to government and party leaders,
the pundits themselves are not immune to influence. The outspoken
Hajat still provides counsel to Muluzi and UDF on occasion while
also keeping Mutharika accountable. Recent reports also hint that
MCP in an attempt to curry favor in the southern region may consider
an influential professor like Hussein as a potential running mate to
Tembo.

EASTHAM