Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08LILONGWE158
2008-03-14 10:06:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Lilongwe
Cable title:  

MALAWI: ELECTION PREPARATIONS MAKING PROGRESS

Tags:  PGOV KDEM EAID MI 
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VZCZCXRO4843
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLG #0158/01 0741006
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141006Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5122
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 LILONGWE 000158 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S E. PELLETREAU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EAID MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI: ELECTION PREPARATIONS MAKING PROGRESS

REF: LILONGWE 50

LILONGWE 00000158 001.2 OF 004


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 LILONGWE 000158

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S E. PELLETREAU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EAID MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI: ELECTION PREPARATIONS MAKING PROGRESS

REF: LILONGWE 50

LILONGWE 00000158 001.2 OF 004



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Since gaining a quorum of commissioners in
mid-January, the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) has made
progress both on preparations for the May 2009 general
elections, and in overcoming opposition criticism of their
impartiality. On March 6, the MEC announced its electoral
calendar, setting May 19, 2009 as the date for presidential
and parliamentary elections. The MEC requested a budget of
$37.3 million USD, a 135% increase over actual expenditures
in the 2004 election, for 2009 presidential and parliamentary
elections. The GOM pledged $4.2 million USD for election
preparations in the FY2008 budget and plans to ask for at
least an additional $9.85 million USD in the FY2009 budget
cycle, leaving a shortfall of approximately 24 million USD
that the GOM hopes donors will cover. Planned donor
countries' contributions currently total only about $12
million, however, to which USAID's portion is only $475,000
USD. Almost one quarter of the MEC budget request is for a
new state-of-the-art voter registration system the MEC claims
is needed due to major problems with the 2004 rolls and the
lack of supplies for the old registration system. MEC has
not yet extended an open invitation for international
observers, but they will be essential to monitor what is
almost certain to be a hard-fought and contentious election.
End Summary.

MEC ANNOUNCES ELECTORAL CALENDAR
--------------


2. (U) On January 17, the High Court ruled that President
Mutharika's MEC appointments were legal (ref A),thus
establishing a quorum of commissioners and allowing the MEC
to accelerate planning for 2009 general elections. On March
6, the MEC announced its electoral calendar, setting May 19,
2009 as the date for presidential and parliamentary
elections. Preparations for the elections include many
critical actions during March and April 2008 including
constituency demarcation meetings, procurement of voter
registration equipment, and recruitment and training of
registration staff. Registration of voters is scheduled to
commence on June 2, 2008 and will be staged in six staggered
phases of 14 days each until September 14, a method meant to

reduce the cost of the registration exercise by allowing the
MEC to purchase less equipment and hire fewer workers.
Nominations for presidential and parliamentary candidates are
due by January 9, 2009. A voters' roll inspection will take
place March 30-April 3 2009 at all polling stations. Initial
public reaction was mixed, with many lauding the MEC for
releasing a calendar on time but questioning the late
nomination deadline and the short voters' roll inspection
period.

PASSING THE HAT FOR A BIG ELECTION BUDGET
--------------


3. (SBU) Among MEC's first actions was to unveil a $37.3
million USD budget for presidential and parliamentary
elections. The requested budget represents a 135% increase
over actual expenditures in the 2004 elections. MEC defended
the budget request to donors by emphasizing that the 2004
elections had numerous shortcomings and should not be used as
a basis for comparison. The GOM has indicated it will
request $9.85 million USD in the FY 2008/09 budget for the
election, leaving a shortfall of $24 million USD that the GOM
expects to come from donors. Opposition members of the
National Assembly fear that the first chance they will get to
comment officially on the MEC's budget request will be at the
anticipated June meeting of parliament to discuss the
national budget (a point of view supported by press reporting
today, wherein the Finance Minister warns that failure to
consider and pass the national budget in a timely way could
derail the elections). The budget session is expected to be
highly contentious. Delays in approving, or cuts to the MEC's
budget at such a late date, could adversely affect election
preparations. Donors will be unable to make up the expected
shortfall and have stressed to the MEC and GOM the need for a
leaner budget and Malawian ownership of the election. For
his part, Minister of Finance Goodall Gondwe has publicly
stated that the budget for 2008/2009 will be the largest of
the Mutharika administration due to election funding and he
has privately told UNDP and the Ambassador that he agrees
with donor concerns that the government of Malawi must own
the elections. His comment provide some hope that the GOM
will request additional funding for the MEC.

NEW COMPUTERIZED VOTER REGISTRATION CONTROVERSIAL
-------------- --------------


LILONGWE 00000158 002.2 OF 004



4. (SBU) The MEC identified the need to create a new voters
roll as a top priority. MEC claimed the voters roll used
during 2004 had many missing names and was a mix of several
manual systems, all of which led to confusion, criticism, and
fraud. In addition, the previous registration system
depended upon photos produced by Polaroid cameras for which
film is no longer available. The MEC's proposed new system
costs $8.6 million USD, almost one quarter of the total
requested budget, and uses a combination of digital
photographs and biometrics to confirm identities. The system
was chosen based on recommendations from technical advisors
funded by the UNDP Election Trust Fund. Despite high initial
costs, the new system should ultimately be more economical in
the long run due to the high costs of film for the previous
system. Opposition leaders are not confident of the need for
or feasibility of the new system. United Democratic Front
(UDF) MP and Legal Affairs Committee Chairperson Atupele
Muluzi stated that the cutting-edge system is more advanced
than the systems of Canada or the United States, and has yet
to be proven in an environment with poor infrastructure,
unreliable electricity, and low technological sophistication.
Muluzi suggested it would take more than a year to properly
set up the system and train users adequately. Muluzi
proposed that a less technology-dependent system be
considered for 2009. (Comment: Muluzi's observation that
the system would be more advanced than most in the U.S. and
Canada is correct, but we note that Malawian citizens do not
routinely possess any reliable identity document, thus
necessitating a more rigorous effort to establish the
identity of voters within the electoral registry itself.)

MEC STRUGGLES TO HIRE QUALIFIED STAFF
--------------


5. (SBU) Both opposition and donors have also cited the high
costs of technical assistance in the budget request. The MEC
has budgeted for 192 work-months spread among 13 technical
advisors who would cover elections, media, human resources,
financial management, procurement, and information technology
at a total cost of $3 million USD. The need for technical
assistance is not being debated, however. The MEC still
needs to hire a Chief Elections Officer and deputies for
Operations, Finance and Administration and Head of Finance
and Procurement. The Human Rights Consultative Committee
(HRCC),an umbrella organization of human rights NGOs,
believes the dependence on non-MEC employees, both technical
advisors and the use of other government agencies, could lead
to chaos in the elections due to a lack of coordination and
impartial, skilled workers to carry out the plan. Others
have countered that it is impossible to expect a country as
poor as Malawi to be able to maintain a full-time,
professional electoral commission when it only has
large-scale actions to perform every 4-5 years.

BUT LEADER HAS VAST EXPERIENCE
--------------


6. (SBU) Justice Anastasia Msosa, a Supreme Court Justice and
the current chairperson of the MEC, was also the head of the
election body in 1994. In 1993, she led Malawi through a
successful referendum on multi-party democracy after 30 years
of dictatorship. She also oversaw a contentious election
where United Democratic Front leader Bakili Muluzi captured
the presidency from President-for-Life Hastings Kamuzu Banda.
Msosa is known to be competent, pragmatic, and apolitical.
In her second round as chairperson of the MEC, Msosa has
shown a willingness to listen to stakeholders and engage all
political parties, a strategy that continues to win
confidence.

OPPOSITION PARTIES -- AND MEC -- SLAM PUBLIC MEDIA BIAS
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Opposition political parties have been vocal in
their displeasure with MEC's civic and voter education
strategy. They claim the strategy, which was released in
late February, was not developed in consultation with the
political parties. Alliance For Democracy (AFORD) said that
releasing the strategy without any input from the
stakeholders was the same approach President Mutharika's had
followed in appointing MEC commissioners, and would further
erode opposition confidence in the MEC. Even the ruling
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) took exception to the lack
of consultation and suggested the MEC had to create greater
ownership of the strategy. The biggest concern with the
education strategy was the inclusion of Malawi Broadcasting
Corporation (MBC),Television Malawi (TVM),and the Ministry
of Information on the MEC's Voter Education Committee.
Opposition leaders consider both MBC, the national public

LILONGWE 00000158 003.2 OF 004


radio broadcaster, and TVM, the only television station in
Malawi, to be highly partisan. MEC engaged each political
party in individual meetings to try and address concerns.
The first outcome of the meetings was March 5 letters to both
MBC and TVM asking them to cease broadcasting inflammatory
and biased programs that could create hatred and violence
among political players. MEC is the first government entity
to openly criticize the two stations for their biased
programming and asked for the removal of specific programs
from the air. The content of the programs cited is to some
measure satirical but heavily anti-opposition and in one case
uses archival material to lampoon the current (and very
different) views of opposition leaders.


8. (U) The MEC education strategy is heavily dependent upon
NGOs. Aloysius Nthenda, chairperson of the Malawi Electoral
Support Network (MESN),an umbrella organization of NGOs
working in voter education, said being so dependent on NGOs
could create its own issues due to the advocacy roles many
NGOs play. Nthenda explained that while most NGOs are
capable of educating people about the need to vote, there is
a fear that voters will then ask how to choose the right
candidate, which could lead to partiality. Both MESN and MEC
have agreed to a code of conduct and an accreditation process
for NGOs involved in voter education to help ensure
impartiality. MESN has also stressed that donors should
release funds early so that voter education can begin well in
advance of elections.

ELECTION RESULTS TO BE ISSUED BY MEC, NOT PUBLIC MEDIA
-------------- --------------


9. (U) Already sensitive to opposition concerns about MBC
and TVM, the MEC announced on February 29 that poll results
will not be broadcast by MBC as occurred in 2004. Instead,
election results centers will be established near polling
stations and all media will have equal access to the voting
results.

LOCAL ELECTIONS TO BE FURTHER DELAYED
--------------


10. (SBU) The current MEC budget does not include funds for
local government elections. Local government elections are
constitutionally-mandated to be held one year after general
elections. The first and only local government elections
were held in 2000, but were not repeated in 2005 due to a
food crisis. Once the food crisis was resolved, local
government elections continued to slip despite pressure from
donors and the opposition. The German Agency for Technical
Cooperation's (GTZ) Promotion of Democratic Decentralization
program has linked some of its funding to the GOM to the
holding of local government elections. Additionally, the
Commonwealth Local Government Forum has also been encouraging
steps toward early local elections in 2008. President
Mutharika has called local elections expensive and
unnecessary, but nonetheless suggested for some time that
they would be held at the same time as presidential and
parliamentary polls if the Constitution could be amended to
permit that. With the continuing political impasse delaying
the expected Parliamentary session in early 2008, however, it
is increasingly unlikely that the necessary legislation can
be passed, even if the President were to change his very
negative opinion as to the utility of the district councils
to be elected. Furthermore, with the expectation of highly
contentious presidential and parliamentary elections,
opposition parties are now content to focus all of their
resources on the general elections and wait until 2010 for
the next local government elections. Still, some donors have
requested that MEC prepare a supplemental budget that shows
the additional expenses holding tripartite elections would
incur over the current 5.3 billion MK request.

NO INVITATION YET FOR INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS
--------------


11. (SBU) While MEC Chair Msosa has stated publicly, and to
donors privately, that international observers will be
welcomed in 2009 as in the past, MEC has not issued formal
invitations to observer delegations. At the prompting of
Ambassador Eastham, the MEC agreed in late February to begin
drafting an international observer policy in preparation of
extending a formal invitation to prospective observers. The
embassy has begun a dialogue with both the MEC and other
foreign missions about coordination of observers and has
stressed to all that observers should be invited months, not
weeks, before the election. Ideally observers would witness
voter registration and education in addition to polling.
Norway has expressed the most interest in sending observers

LILONGWE 00000158 004.2 OF 004


but will not commit until the EU, who requires a formal
invitation from the MEC, has decided whether it will send
observers. SEPTEL will include the U.S. Mission's request
for incremental funding to support fielding a U.S. observer
mission.

ELECTION PROGRESS ENCOURAGING BUT TIMETABLE, FUNDING STILL
TIGHT
--------------
--------------


12. (SBU) Comment: The MEC's recent flurry of activity,
including the release of the election calendar, is
encouraging. MEC's willingness to engage all political
parties is building trust in the institution, and both major
opposition parties have hinted that they will likely drop
their legal appeal concerning the appointment of the
commissioners if the MEC continues to involve all
stakeholders. Furthermore, the announcement of a date for
the election will put additional pressure on the government
and other stakeholders to work with the MEC on preparations.
The GOM has already provided MEC funding to procure the
high-tech system despite opposition concerns and no guarantee
of government and donors fully funding the MEC budget
request. There is every reason to believe that Malawi's 2009
elections will be hard-fought and contentious, putting the
MEC and eventual international observers at the center of a
potential political storm.
EASTHAM