GABON/CAR: GABON PUSHES HARD FOR CAR DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LIBREVILLE 000572

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS ALSO FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
AF/C PLEASE ALSO PASS BANGUI AND BRAZZAVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2018
TAGS: PREL KPKO CT TO GB
SUBJECT: GABON/CAR: GABON PUSHES HARD FOR CAR DIALOGUE

REF: A. LIBREVILLE 0571

B. BANGUI 0226

Classified By: DCM Nathan Holt for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) All major obstacles to the scheduled December 8
launch of an "inclusive political dialogue" in the Central
African Republic appear to have been resolved, according to
Gabonese mediators. Gabonese President Bongo will travel to
Bangui for the December 8 opening of the dialogue, and Gabon
is arranging to transport former CAR President Ange-Felix
Patasse and former CAR Defense Minister Jean-Jacques
Demafouth to Banguias well. Both leaders face potential
difficulty with the International Criminal Court, which has
emerged as a major complicating factor in the peace process.
Rebel leader Demafouth told friends in Libreville that he he
will not join a government led by Bozize and is reluctant to
fly in the same plane as Patasse. Demafouth also claims that
Bozize "imposed" former Burundian President Pierre Buyoya on
Bongo as mediator in the talks. Gabonese officials privately
express frustration with the whole cast of Central African
players, and the cost of the exercise to date. They
nevertheless remain optimistic and the dialogue can lead to a
new political dispensation in CAR and an end that country's
long-simmering civil conflict. End Summary.

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All is Ready . . .
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2. (C) Gabonese Deputy Foreign Minister Nelson Messone told
the DCM December 5 that Gabonese officials think all major
obstacles to the upcoming inclusive political dialogue in CAR
have been resolved, and that the dialogue should open on
schedule December 8 with President Bongo and newly-designated
mediator Pierre Buyoya (former president of Burundi)
presiding.


3. (C) Bongo has continued to press all sides of the CAR
conflict to negotiate, according to Guy Rossatanga, a
Gabonese official involved in the talks. Asked if Bongo has
"pressured" Bozize to adopt a more conciliatory posture,
Rossatanga said "it is more subtle than that." Nevertheless
Bongo has told Bozize directly that if he cannot achieve a
military victory--and he has shown that he cannot--the
Central African president has no choice but to negotiate with
his adversaries. Bozize made a one-day visit to Libreville
December 2 (Ref. A). Rebel leader Demafouth and other CAR
figures have also been in Libreville this week.

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Ange-Felix Patasse
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4. (C) The status of former CAR President Patasse appears to
have figured heavily in the latest behind-the-scenes
maneuvering in Libreville. Gabon plans to send a plane to
Togo to pick up the former CAR president and transport him to
Bangui for the talks, according to Gabon's deputy foreign
minister. Presidential advisor Rossatanga confirmed that
Gabon has been deeply involved in arrangements for Patasse's
return, and scoffed at press reports that Gabon and France
opposed Patasse's involvement. "Inclusive means inclusive,"
Rossatange said, and Gabon wants all the major players at the
table.


5. (C) Deputy Foreign Minister Messone said Patasse
nevertheless poses thorny problems for Gabon and others
involved in the process. The ICC could issue an arrest
warrant for Patasse at any time, Messone said, and both Gabon
and CAR are members of the ICC and would be obliged to help
execute the warrant. Messone urged the United States and
others to pressure the ICC to allow the CAR political
dialogue to proceed without hindrance. As a practical
matter, Messone said, this means allowing Patasse to leave
his exile in Togo (which is not an ICC member),participate
in the Bangui dialogue, and then return to Togo.
Presidential advisor Rossatanga told us separately that
Patasse had asked to visit Libreville en route to Bangui. He
said Gabon had not yet decided how to handle the request.

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Demafouth's Hard Line
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6. (C) Rebel leader Demafouth encountered one of our Embassy

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FSNs at a social gathering December 4 and, when Demafouth was
not fielding calls from the international media, he spoke
candidly about Patasse and other issues. The meeting was
unplanned; Demafouth is a relative and close friend of the
family of our FSN's spouse. Demafouth said Bozize's strategy
is to offer Patasse protection against the ICC in exchange
for political support from Patasse's ethnic allies in CAR.
Bozize will also give Patasse the status of a former
president and various other perks, Demafouth predicted.
Demafouth, who acknowledged that he has his own potential
problems with the ICC, said he has warned Bongo that the
international tribunal will "never" relent in its pursuit of
Patasse.


7. (C) Demafouth said President Bongo had invited him to fly
with Bongo to Bangui on December 8. Demafouth said he was
willing to do so, but refused to share an airplane with
Patasse. He speculated that the Gabonese would deliver
Patasse directly to Bangui, then return to Libreville to pick
up President Bongo and his entourage.


8. (C) In private comments, Demafouth remains scathing about
CAR President Bozize, who served as head of the army under
Demafouth--then the minister of defence--before coming to
power in 2003. Bozize is "stupid", Demafouth said, and
Demafouth would never join a government led by Bozize.
Demafouth said he might allow some of his key allies to take
jobs in a reconstituted goverment, but Demafouth himself
would be unlikely even to remain in CAR following the
dialogue.

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Buyoya As Mediator
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9. (C) Demafouth claimed that CAR President Bozize "imposed"
former Burundian President Pierre Buyoya as mediator in the
CAR peace process. Under the June 2008 Libreville peace
agreement, Gabon's President Bongo was authorized to choose a
mediator from four persons nominated by various sides. The
communique issued at the end of Bozize's December 2 visit to
Libreville states that Bozize "brought to the attention" of
Bongo the fact that Buyoya had been chosen. Gabonese
officials downplayed the issue of whether Buyoya had been
"imposed" by Bozize and said the former Burundian president
is well known to the Gabonese and a good choice as mediator.

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Libya's Role
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10. (C) Gabonese presidential advisor Rossatanga told us
that Libya continues to "create fires and then put them out"
in CAR. Libya-backed rebel leader Abdoulaye Miskine has been
causing problems but has little support on the ground,
Rossatanga claimed. Libya has been disingenuous throughout
the process, Rossatanga said. Libyan envoy Ali Treiki, who
visited Libreville November 26, claimed that Libya was
unaware of difficulties created by Miskine, Rossatanga said.
Separately, CAR rebel leader Demafouth predicted that Miskine
would remain in Libya and would not participate in the Bangui
dialogue.

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Mounting Costs and other Frustration
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11. (C) Gabonese interlocutors also speak of increasing
frustration over the cost of the CAR peace process at the
attitude of some participants. Bongo has complained
privately that CAR President Bozize treats Gabon like a
"bank", according to Rossatanga. And various CAR officials,
including government ministers, consistently arrive late and
unprepared for scheduled meetings, Rossatanga complained.


12. (C) Nevertheless, Gabonese Deputy Foreign Minister
Messone told us Gabon remains optimistic that the upcoming
inclusive political dialogue can lead to real progress.
There are few substantive issues separating the players, he
pointed out, and the current deadlock does no one any good.

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Comment
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13. (C) It is of course difficult for us to judge CAR
political dynamics from this distance. The Gabonese have
worked very hard to bring the process to this point, however,
and will be sorely disappointed if the upcoming dialogue
fails to produce some kind of political deal and an end to

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the ongoing low-grade civil conflict. CAR's long-suffering
people will of course be far more discouraged. End Comment.
REDDICK