EMERGING MIDDLE CLASS GROUP STANDING UP TO EVO

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000927

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: EMERGING MIDDLE CLASS GROUP STANDING UP TO EVO


Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Poloffs met with six representatives of the recently
formed group "Alianza Plaza Abaroa" (Abaroa Plaza Alliance)
on April 14. The Alliance is a newly formed political
movement compromised mostly of middle-class La Paz residents.
They claim their primary objective is to stand for the
protection of democracy, democratic institutions, freedom of
expression, and freedom to dissent. The Alliance boasts of a
membership of several thousand, but accurate figures are not
available. Alliance members assert that President Evo
Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) has violated the
fundamental democratic principals which their group espouses.
The Alliance's presence indicates that Morales' middle class
support in La Paz has eroded considerably since his election
in December 2005. End Summary.

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History
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2. (SBU) The Alliance represents a united front of four
smaller groups -- Basta Ya!, Pacenos Por La Paz, Pensar
Diferente and Unete Bolivia )- that grew out of a series of
recent peaceful rallies in support of democracy and against
the heavy-handed tactics of Evo Morales' government. The
most recent event that galvanized the Alliance occurred March
6 in La Paz' Plaza Abaroa. That night, university students
organized a small peaceful protest against Evo Morales'
government. The Alianza states it had about 2000 protesters
at the square. The event turned violent when a MAS-affiliated
mob disrupted the gathering. The MAS mob was carrying
sticks, whips, and rocks, which they threw at the protesters.
In response to the mayhem the police tear gassed the crowd
and brought in water cannons.

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The Anti-MASista Non-Partisans
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3. (C) While the Alliance representatives acknowledged that
none of them supported the MAS, they were quick to point out
that their group is non-partisan. They frequently repeated
that their main objective was not/not Evo's ouster, only that
Evo respect democratic principals, democratic institutions
and freedom of expression. The six argued that Bolivia's
"traditional" political parties (such as MNR, MIR, ADN and
PODEMOS) have all been discredited to the point of
irrelevance. The group noted that the heads of Bolivia's
traditional political parties for years failed to cultivate a
new generation of leaders because of their egotism and out of
concern that someone might challenge their authority. They
stressed that they do not see any national or regional
leaders that have a vision which the Alliance could endorse.
They specifically mentioned that PODEMOS leader Jorge "Tuto"
Quiroga and National Unity (UN) Party leader Samuel Doria
Medina lack the credibility to represent a viable alternative
to President Morales.


4. (C) One of the Alliance's biggest frustrations is that
La Paz city (and more specifically the La Paz middle class)
lacks political representation. The Alliance members told
poloffs that Evo's party takes La Paz for granted because La
Paz and its neighboring city of El Alto routinely poll very
high (70 to 80 percent) in favor of the MAS. The group
asserted that support for the MAS in La Paz is eroding
quickly, while in El Alto fissures are starting to emerge.
They argued, however, that the La Paz middle class is now
decidedly anti-MAS even if most in the middle class is not
vocally critical. Alliance members asserted that most
Pacenos (La Paz residents) fear being "blacklisted" and
retribution if they openly criticize the MAS.

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Demographics and Outreach
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5. (C) The Alliance leadership that met with poloffs
consisted of three women (Fernanda San Martin, Carola
Antezana, Claudia Bravo) and three men (Guillermo Cuentas,
Guillermo Paz and Rodrigo Pero). The six (all
light-skinned/European in appearance) acknowledged that they
are fighting against an iconic image in Evo Morales ) the
self-proclaimed first indigenous President. Nonetheless,
they argued the Alliance is compromised of all types of
Bolivians, not just light-skinned Bolivians such as
themselves. In fact, the peace protesters in the Plaza
Abaroa on March 6 looked more like Evo Morales than the six
Alliance leaders.


6. (C) The leadership explained that the Alliance remains a
small but growing La Paz phenomenon, but it has aspirations
to expand into other areas. The group claimed to be reaching
out to moderate groups in El Alto, but recognized that
penetrating El Alto will be difficult. (Note: On April 16,
poloff met with an El Alto leader who is collaborating with
the Alliance. End Note). Their philosophy is to target the
15 to 20 percent of Altenos (according to public opinion
polls) who currently reject Evo Morales' policies. The group
argued that the 15 to 20 percent can serve as a vanguard of
El Alto opinion changers. They also stated that many more
Altenos actually do not care for Evo but are afraid to
express their opinion, or they see no viable alternative to
the President. (Note: Many Embassy Contacts in El Alto tell
us the same thing. End Note). The Alliance also has
connections with university groups in the opposition-led
"media-luna" departments (states) of Beni, Santa Cruz and
Tarija. Some of the Alliance's member groups also have had
contact with opposition groups in Venezuela.

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Communication and Future Plans
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7. (C) The Alliance leadership states it uses the Internet,
text messaging and cellular phones to communicate with its
steadily growing membership. Facebook and email have become
the medium of choice. The group asserted that some 8000
Facebook users have expressed interest in their movement.
The Alliance's entire senior leadership attempts to meet at
least once a week, but the leaders meet or communicate in
small gatherings quite frequently (daily).


8. (C) The Alliance currently has no plans to form a
political party, but it does plan to hold more rallies and
start implementing projects. Currently the group is focused
on working out its organizational structure. Once its
structure is complete, the group wants to develop training
seminars on leadership and conflict management.

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Comment
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9. (C) The Abaroa Plaza Alliance today does not currently
represent a challenge to the Morales government, but it does
demonstrate that some in the silent La Paz middle class are
now willing to speak-out on what they view as Evo's assault
on Bolivian democracy. It remains to be seen if the Alliance
can emerge into a full-fledged political movement.
Nonetheless, the Alliance's very presence indicates that the
La Paz middle class - a group that in sizable numbers voted
for Evo in December 2005 primarily to stop Bolivia's
political turmoil ) are increasingly disenchanted with Evo
Morales government. End Comment.
URS