BOLIVIA: VERY LOW EXPECTATIONS FOR JANUARY 7 TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000009

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2018
TAGS: PINR PGOV PREL ASEC BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: VERY LOW EXPECTATIONS FOR JANUARY 7 TALKS

REF: 2007 LA PAZ 3329

Classified By: Acting EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) With the holiday season "truce" coming to an end, it
appears that the ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) and
the opposition are preparing to resume where they left off in
early December with belligerence and bluster. While
President Evo Morales and the five prefects of opposition-led
departments will meet to discuss their differences January 7,
indications are that the "dialogue" will amount to little.
Even before the truce )-that never really was-- has ended,
President Evo Morales has begun to whip up his base and
seemingly shut off prospects for real compromise. Opposition
prefects have little confidence the talks will produce
results. However, they also recognize that they must
participate to prevent Evo from hijacking the high ground
with claims he is willing to talk while the opposition only
seeks division. End Summary.

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Evo and Prefects Accept to Meet
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2. (U) In a letter sent to the president on December 27,
opposition prefects from Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Tarija,
Beni, and Pando agreed to a meeting on January 7 with four
proposed agenda items: the tax cuts to governors,
departmental autonomies, the proposed constitution, and any
other topic Evo would like to address. Speaking from a
cabinet and MAS loyalist retreat in Cochabamba on December
28, Evo said "I salute the prefects for reflecting and
accepting dialogue. I will be waiting for them in La Paz on
January 7."

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Negotiating from the Dust Bin
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3. (U) Evo's December 28 conciliatory tone was replaced by
more bellicose language two days later when he addressed a
group of 3,000 coca-growers (cocaleros) in the Chapare.
Morales called on the crowd to "mobilize to defend the mother
land, to defend democracy, and that the people will decide
with their 'yes' vote on the new Magna Carta." He went on to
say "we are the patriots that will defend the unity of
Bolivia, and that means throwing the autonomous statutes of a
few Santa Cruz families into the garbage can." The Vice
President of the opposition-stronghold Santa Cruz Civic
Committee Luis Nunez responded to Evo's comments by stating,
"What we should be throwing into the garbage, is the
Constitution of death approved by the MAS-istas." Evo also
told the crowd that "the poor have more rights than the rich"
and warned that the opposition was planning a coup d'etat.
Vice President Garcia-Linera lashed out at the autonomous
statutes also. He called them illegal and said the
opposition "is trying to dismember the country."

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An Open Agenda With Nothing on the Table
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4. (U) Despite early declarations by President Morales that
the proposed January 7 meeting between he and the prefects of
Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, Tarija and Cochabamba would have an
open agenda, government officials have more recently stated
that critical issues --such as the new constitution and the
cutting of hydrocarbons revenues (IDH) to the departments--
are off the table. Government Minister Alfredo Rada on
January 1 stated, "The new constitution . . . is not
negotiable and the people will decide via referendum if it is
approved or rejected." Rada argued that the opposition had
their chance to provide input to the new constitution,
calling the new constitution "not a Movement Toward Socialism
text" and "balanced." (Comment: The constitution was
approved with few opposition delegates present, at a hastily
called session of the Constituent Assembly that violated
several assembly rules including the need to allow for
24-hours notice before a session is convened. End Comment).
In contrast Rada called the autonomy statutes "forced" and
"secessionist." Presidential Spokesperson Alex Contreras
later stated that the government's decision to cut IDH to the
departments to finance its new pension system was also not a
subject for debate.


5. (U) Opposition figures have resolutely criticized the
government's conditions on the January 7 negotiations; but,
opposition prefects state they are still committed to
attending the talks. Beni Prefect Ernesto Suarez stated that
"not touching on these proposals (the new constitution and
hydrocarbons revenues) by the prefects, (means that) the
meeting will be a dialogue between the deaf."


6. (C) Despite the Rada's statements, the prefects of
Cochabamba and Tarija have committed to attending the January
7 meeting. Nonetheless, during a private New Year's Eve
dinner, Cochabamba Governor Manfred Reyes Villa expressed his
serious concerns about possible violence in January. Reyes
Villa has very low expectations as the government is publicly
and privately undermining the scheduled meeting. He gave as
an example MAS efforts to draft "provisional autonomy
statutes" and "indigenous autonomy statutes" in Cochabamba as
a way to confuse people and weaken the "departmental
autonomy" signature campaign. Reyes Villa believes hot spots
for potential violence include Cochabamba, Sucre, and Tarija.

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Government Exploiting and Twisting Events
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7. (C) Government officials, rather than trying to cool
tensions, appear to be using government-controlled media to
exploit events to further their political aims. Via its
government sponsored TV channel, radio stations, and news
agency (ABI) the Morales administration rapidly and
exhaustively disseminates stories of attacks on pro-MAS
supporters and property while typically down playing attacks
on anti-government actors by its supporters. Following late
December explosive attacks on a MAS Constituent Assembly
members' home and the Bolivian Workers Federation (COB),
office Minister of Government Alfredo Rada immediately
denounced the attacks as orchestrated by terrorists, implying
opposition support despite initial police reports that
discounted links between the events (reftel). Government
news media focused considerable attention on the COB
secretary general's statements. The secretary general, a

SIPDIS
strong ally of the Morales administration, accused the right,
the Podemos political party, the Embassy of the United
States, and the opposition governors and civic committees of
wanting a civil war.


8. (C) Meanwhile, ABI has been running numerous reports
discounting the government's involvement in the November
23-25 deaths in Sucre, despite strong circumstantial evidence
(including video footage) to the contrary. Citing an alleged
"arms expert," ABI on January 2 ran an article claiming that
the police and military were not the likely culprits. The
alleged expert argued that it was likely anti-government
protesters with black market weapons that killed the three to
make the government "look culpable." ABI's expert also
implied the USG was at least implicitly guilty, stating the
caliber of weapon used (5.56mm) is the "caliber promoted by
North Americans." (Comment: In opposition strongholds this
uneven reporting by government media is aggravating already
high tensions. Sucre's residents who see themselves as
victims of the government's aggression on November 23-25,
view with skepticism and hostility this twisting of the
facts. End Comment).

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The Last Slim Chance for Peace?
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9. (C) Comment: There is little confidence amongst the
opposition the January 7 talks will result in tangible
results. The Santa Cruz Civic Committee's Luis Nunez has
already called the talks "pure show, a smoke screen."
Nonetheless, the opposition appears to understand that it has
to participate to remain relevant, both domestically and
internationally, thus the formal invitation letter from them
to Evo. Cochabamba Manfred Reyes Villa, himself a serious
doubter that negotiations will produce results, has
acknowledged publicly that the talks are "the last chance for
a peaceful solution," warning that if they fail that Bolivia
could "descend into a spiral of conflict and violence." If
the prefects do not participate in this "last chance" they
will have significant difficulty in persuading the public
that they were seeking a peaceful resolution to Bolivia's
latest political impasse. That said, a January 7 deal, would
be a belated Christmas miracle. End Comment.

URS