Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08LAPAZ665
2008-03-26 19:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:  

BOLIVIA: "DIALOGUE, WHAT DIALOGUE?"

Tags:  PGOV PREL BL 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0001
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLP #0665/01 0861904
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 261904Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6937
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 7739
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 5095
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 9007
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 6228
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3438
RUEHGE/AMEMBASSY GEORGETOWN 0659
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 3664
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 3949
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 5349
RUEHPO/AMEMBASSY PARAMARIBO 0339
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 6062
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0696
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 1015
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000665 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: "DIALOGUE, WHAT DIALOGUE?"

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

- - - -
Summary
- - - -

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000665

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: "DIALOGUE, WHAT DIALOGUE?"

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

- - - -
Summary
- - - -


1. (C) President Evo Morales announced on March 14 that his
Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party was prepared to talk
with the opposition with the presence of the Catholic Church
as mediators or, as the Church prefers, facilitators. The
opposition responded with a series of conditions )- the
restoration of funding cuts and changes to the MAS draft
constitution. The government, in turn, argued that it would
not attend "preconditioned" talks. Rather than provide the
opposition with a confidence-building measure; Morales
responded with a decree aimed at the agro-business sector --
a critical component of the opposition's support base. The
opposition states it has no confidence that Morales' latest
overture is anything more than political theater; a show
meant to distract both domestic and international observers
from his party's latest round of (February 28) undemocratic
actions. It now appears conflict, not the Church, will be
the more likely catalyst to force the sides to talk. End
Summary

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Morales Agrees to Church Mediation
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2. (U) On March 14, shortly following a two-hour meeting
with Cardinal Julio Terrazas, President Evo Morales publicly
announced that he would ask the Catholic Church to serve as
mediator for a national dialogue between his government and
the opposition. Terrazas accepted the offer and designated
Monsignor Julio Juarez as the Church's lead facilitator.
According to members of Morales' MAS, talks were scheduled to
begin March 24, but that date passed without any indication
that negotiations would start. Cardinal Terrazas'
spokesperson Marcial Chupinagua told La Paz daily newspaper
La Prensa that neither the government nor the opposition had
taken any steps to set an agenda, date, or place for talks.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Opposition Responds: Thanks But No Thanks
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


3. (U) The opposition's initial reaction to Morales' call
for church mediation was tepid )- citing a lack of
confidence in the government's overture. The opposition

prefects (governors) of Beni, Cochabamba, Pando, Santa Cruz
and Tarija all argued that the central government must
restore funding to their departments (states) as a
prerequisite for talks. (Note: The central government
unilaterally reduced its natural gas revenue sharing
arrangement with all nine of Bolivia's departments to pay for
its new "Renta Dignidad pension program. End Note). The
opposition prefects also insisted that the MAS must be open
to revising its draft constitution. The leader of the
largest opposition party PODEMOS, Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga,
argued that the government needs to create a constructive
environment for the negotiations to take place, suggesting
Morales replace his recent "partisan" appointment to the
National Electoral Court (CNE) Jose Luis Exeni as a
confidence building measure. The opposition also voiced
displeasure with Monsignor Julio Juarez )- the Church's
proposed facilitator -- whom it alleges is too allied with
the MAS.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Government Rejects Opposition Conditions
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


4. (U) The government immediately responded to the
opposition by stating it would not enter talks with
"preconditions." Government spokesperson Alex Contreras
summed up the Morales administration's position stating, "if
there are conditions on the restarting of dialogue (then)
unfortunately there will not be positive results."
Responding to the opposition prefects' request that funding
cuts be restored, Contreras stated, "for us there does not
exist a cut. For us there is a redistribution of economic
resources." The government did, however, reiterate that the
MAS was open to "revising" its draft constitution. On the
other hand, the government came forward with its own
pre-condition, the postponement of Santa Cruz's May 4
autonomy referendum. Santa Cruz Prefect and leaders within
the Santa Cruz autonomy movement immediately rejected the
government's demand arguing that nothing could stop the May 4
referendum.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Government Adds Cooking Oil to the Fire
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


5. (SBU) While the opposition was looking for confidence
building measures the government responded with yet another
decree that has added fuel to the flames of discord. On
March 19, the Ministry of Rural Development issued a decree
prohibiting the export of cooking oil )- a measure that
primarily impacts agro-business interests located in Santa
Cruz. The government claims the measure is meant to ensure
adequate cooking oil supplies for the domestic market, while
the Santa Cruz agro-business sector argues that the domestic
market represents less than 20 percent of its gross sales.
Santa Cruz political and business leaders have denounced the
measure as a political weapon meant to dampen their autonomy
efforts.

- - - - - - - - - - - - -
International Mediators?
- - - - - - - - - - - - -


6. (C) The European Union (EU) appears to have put on hold
its offer to facilitate talks. The EU will also not be
issuing a statement regarding the February 28 events in which
pro-MAS groups (via threats and assaults) prevented
opposition parliamentarians from entering Congress, thus
allowing the MAS to pass legislation which the opposition
clearly opposed. The British Ambassador noted, however, that
the EU has been instructed to demarche the Bolivian
government and the opposition to encourage both to
participate in the talks. An EU delegation will be traveling
to Santa Cruz March 26 to deliver the message.


7. (C) Meanwhile, the Argentine DCM in La Paz told our DCM
that Government Vice Minister Hector Arce approached the
Argentine government on a recent trip to Buenos Aires to see
if Brazil, Argentina and Peru might consider a mediating
role. The Argentine DCM was not sure how the Church mediated
talks would impact prospects for Brazil, Argentina and Peru's
participation. He indicated that the Bolivian government
might still turn to the three countries if the Church
facilitated talks broke down.


8. (C) Meanwhile, the Brazilian Ambassador told Ambassador
Goldberg that Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera had floated
the idea of U.S. participation in a "Friends Group." We are
following up with Garcia Linera to see what he has in mind.

- - - -
Comment
- - - -


9. (C) The opposition has long stated the Catholic Church
is Bolivia's only impartial domestic mediator. Morales'
concession to include the Church in the "national dialogue"
should have boosted the opposition's confidence in the MAS'
willingness to compromise. However, as he has done
repeatedly, Morales has called for talks and reconciliation,
while his actions appear to indicate he has other plans.
Since calling in the Catholic Church, Morales has continued
to denounce the autonomy referenda as illegal -- a position
that infuriates the opposition-led low-land departments. The
recent cooking oil decree was a clear attack on the
agro-business sector )- a group that compromises a critical
base of (financial) support to the Santa Cruz opposition.
The government has also continued its public campaign in
support of the MAS draft constitution. While the
government's actions have been less than conciliatory, the
opposition has also refused to wave the olive branch. The
Church-led talks, if they proceed, will likely yield few if
any results. A confrontation resulting in bloodshed is the
more likely scenario to push the MAS and the opposition to
really sit down at the table and talk. Carlos Dabdoub, Santa
Cruz's lead representative on autonomy, perhaps best
summarized the current situation after receiving a press
question on the state of talks; Dabdoub responded, "Dialogue?
What dialogue?" End Comment.
GOLDBERG