SANTA CRUZ TO EVO: DIALOGUE AFTER MAY 4 VOTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 000611

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2018
TAGS: ASEC BL PGOV PHUM PINR PREL
SUBJECT: SANTA CRUZ TO EVO: DIALOGUE AFTER MAY 4 VOTE

REF: A. LA PAZ 561

B. LA PAZ 560

Classified By: Acting EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 (b),(d
).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Santa Cruz leaders are determined to hold their
autonomy referendum on May 4. At the same time the Morales'
government is trying to stop the referendum. Evo's latest
offer to have the Catholic Church facilitate a dialogue is
taken with skepticism and the reply "call us on May 5th."
Autonomy leaders are taking pains to stay within the law and
worry what other tactics the Government of Bolivia may try to
use to prevent the vote. End summary.

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NO ONE CAN STOP THIS, NOT EVEN US
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2. (C) Emboff met with noted Bolivian jurist and principal
author of the Santa Cruz Autonomy Statute Juan Carlos Urenda.
Urenda said that the momentum is such in Santa Cruz that
even if Governor Ruben Costas and other leaders tried to call
off the referendum they couldn't. "Costas would be knocked
out office if he tries to postpone the vote." Urenda noted
that over 300,000 signatures had been collected in the
referendum drive. When asked about the February 29 laws
passed designating Congress as the only body able to call
referendums, Urenda explained that the laws are not
retroactive and do not apply to referendums already legally
convoked (Reftel A). "This is why Evo and his government are
so frustrated," according to Urenda, "they can't come and
arrest Costas or any of us because everything we have done is
legal."

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WHAT MAY COME NEXT
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3. (C) Urenda dismissed President Morales' offer to come
back to the dialogue table with observers present, saying
"call us on May 5." Urenda feels Evo is becoming more and
more desperate and worries what steps he make take to stop
the referendum. "There is no trust whatsoever in Evo Morales
or any of his ministers. Nor do we view OAS SecGen Insulza
as a legitimate mediator after his disastrous trip to
Bolivia." Urenda and others want to have the autonomy vote
first and then negotiate "a national pact" with Evo. "There
needs to be an overlapping consensus between the states and
national government. Eventually all nine states should have
there own autonomy. Bolivia should adopt a system just short
of federalism. That is the only way to keep this country
together," according to Urenda.

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CONCERN AND DETERMINATION
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4. (C) Santa Cruz Civic Committee Director of
Communications Juan Manuel Arias is opposed to any further
negotiations with the Morales government until after the
autonomy vote. "We (the regional opposition) have been
burned for more than 24 months now by Evo and his lies.
We'll talk about pacts and autonomy for all the departments
after May 4." Arias stressed that Santa Cruz autonomy will

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stay within the legal boundaries: "We will send all national
tax revenue to La Paz as stipulated by national law, however,
with autonomy we will be able to create our own revenue
stream, something this government does not want." While
Arias and others are emboldened by Evo's recent failures to
stop the referendum vote, there is concern about what actions
Morales may take. "We are concerned that Evo may close
congress and the courts and stage an auto-coup." Arias
compared Bolivia to a stick of dynamite: "the fuse is lit
but just how long of a fuse it is no one knows."

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AUTONOMY YES, MAS CONSTITUTION NO
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5. Constituent Assemblyman and sugar refinery owner Kiko
Aguilera told Emboff that the rural province of Obispos Santo
Esteban that he represents overwhelming supports departmental
autonomy and is against the MAS drafted constitution. This
he claims, is even with seventy-five percent of his
district's population being high-land alti-plano immigrants.
"People blame the Morales government for their extreme
poverty. It does not matter if they are indigenous,
inflation is color blind." As far as the MAS drafted
constitution, Aguilera sees two paths, or Evo agrees to
re-write the draft or it gets shelved and dies.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) There is every indication that Santa Cruz will hold
it's autonomy referendum vote on May 4, even if the Catholic
Church facilitates a dialogue between Evo and the regional
opposition. (Note: Newly elected Santa Cruz Chamber of
Commerce President Eduardo Paz told Ambassador on March 17
that the prefects may sit down at the table before May 4 but
the autonomy vote will take place as scheduled. End Note.)
If the autonomy referendum vote materializes, Bolivians will
wake up to an entirely different political landscape on May

5. End comment.
GOLDBERG