SANTA CRUZ: NO TURNING BACK AUTONOMY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000561

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BO
SUBJECT: SANTA CRUZ: NO TURNING BACK AUTONOMY

REF: A. LA PAZ 445


B. LA PAZ 182

C. LA PAZ 483

Classified By: ECOPOL Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) Summary: The Santa Cruz Departmental Electoral Court
is moving forward with plans to hold the May 4 referendum on
the autonomy statute, ignoring an order from the National
Electoral Court to cease and desist. Given that the
referendum is being financed by the Santa Cruz Prefecture,
there is little the Bolivian government can do to stop it
without resorting to force. Santa Cruz leaders and citizens
are convinced that "We WILL be autonomous" although what that
will mean come May 5 is still a big question, particularly
because the Department could be cut off from central
government resources as punishment. Renewed calls for
dialogue ring hollow, so the government and "media luna"
departments continue on their parallel paths with little
chance for any change until after May 4.

Just Try and Stop Us
--------------


2. (C) Preparations for the May 4 referendum on Santa Cruz's
draft autonomy statute had been well underway when the
National Electoral Court (CNE) called a March 6-7 meeting to
"reconcile" the calendars for the departmental autonomy
referenda and the national referendum on the draft
constitution. After Congress passed highly-controversial
laws February 28, outlawing referenda not called for by
Congress and setting the constitutional referendum for the
same May 4 date (ref A),Santa Cruz leaders discussed moving
the autonomy vote up a week or two to keep the issues
separate. The CNE, however, ordered that all referenda be
postponed. The Santa Cruz Departmental Electoral Court (CDE)
refused to recognize that order, saying it had not agreed to
such a scenario during the March 6-7 meeting, and vowed to
continue with the May 4 referendum as planned. Technically,
there is little the CNE can do to stop it without resorting
to force, since the referendum is being financed by the Santa
Cruz Prefecture.

It's Legal and Moral
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3. (C) Members of the Santa Cruz CDE told American Presence
Post Officer (APP) they expected there would be consequences.
They were elected by a 2/3 vote of Congress, and although no
one has ever questioned their impartiality, they could be
replaced by a 2/3 vote of Congress, something the government
has in the recent past been able to forcibly orchestrate.
Nonetheless, they pointed out that their decision to proceed
is not only legal under the current electoral law
(disregarding the "illegitimate" February 28th laws),it is
morally correct. 110,000 Bolivians who signed a petition
have a right to vote. They further stressed that May 4 will
be the culmination of a long-term effort to win autonomy and
the result of many, many years of dissatisfaction with
central government rule. It is important to remember, they
said, that this is not simply an anti-Evo strategy, although
the actions of the Morales government resulted in increased
momentum. As an example, a civic committee member told APO
that routes for public transportation are set in La Paz.
Local officials cannot even act to satisfy demands for bus
services in neighborhoods. Comment: APP had requested a
meeting with the President of the Santa Cruz CDE to learn
about the referendum process, and was surprised to find all 9
members of the court present. This indicated the seriousness
and unity with which the court is working. End comment.

We WILL Be Autonomous
--------------


4. (C) Secretary General of the Santa Cruz Prefecture Roly
Aguilera told APP the coming months will be very tense. The
Bolivian government is extremely frustrated with its
inability to control what is happening. Santa Cruz leaders
expect Morales' MAS party will work hard to provoke violent
confrontations around the referendum, importing thugs if need
be. Aguilera admitted it will be difficult to control
violence between opposing groups of citizens, but civic
leaders were sending out messages of restraint to all
supporters of autonomy. They hope the experience of
Cochabamba, Pando and Sucre, where the government's use of
"social mobilizations" to provoke violence backfired, will
have some moderating effect as well.

International Reaction?
--------------


5. (C) Interlocutors in both the prefecture and the civic
committee said the international community's reaction would
be extremely important. Local leaders are very concerned
about what the international community's "complicit silence"
after the undemocratic actions on February 28 may indicate.
They understand the U.S. is constrained by its difficult
relationship with the Morales government, but they expected
the EU to stand up for democratic principles. However, what
bothers them most is the solicitous attitude of Brazil and
Argentina to President Morales, an attitude which ignores
that the "media luna" is the source of most of the trade
between their countries. (They hinted that the sole gas
pipeline to Brazil could become a target of any radicalized,
dissatisfied group.) As a result, the prefects plan to
increase their own "diplomatic efforts" to neighboring
countries. On the other hand, our interlocutors saw some
benefits in what happened on February 28. "Every error,
every illegal act that the government commits makes our case
for autonomy stronger."

The Boy Who Cried Wolf
--------------


6. (C) Renewed calls for dialogue by President Morales and
Vice President Garcia Linera the week of March 10 were met
with incredulity by opposition leaders. There were endless
rounds of fruitless dialogue during the past three months,
with both sides talking past each other. And when on
February 28 VP Garcia Linera was "in dialogue" with the
opposition and left them to preside over a session in
Congress, while they could not participate because the
building was surrounded by thugs, the last ounce of
credibility was destroyed. As the OAS's Dante Caputo arrives
this week to facilitate dialogue, the OAS has to overcome
credibility problems with the opposition due to OAS SYG
Insulza's public comments in favor of the Morales government
during his January visit (ref B). Like the boy who cried
wolf, these latest calls for dialogue come after too many
false alarms.

The Day After?
--------------


7. (C) With little doubt that the autonomy referendum will go
forward, and will pass, the big question is what will happen
the day after? Where will the region get the resources to
implement its own projects and govern itself, particluarly if
the central goverment cuts off funds to the department as
punishment? Will imposing new taxes on its citizens be
enough? Santa Cruz leaders are clear that autonomy does not
mean independence, as western Bolivia provides the market for
50 percent of what the east produces. Some predict a civic
war; others fear repression (an unlikely scenario given that
the armed forces will be hesitant to act-ref C). One earnest
if naive interlocutor in the civic committee told APP, "I
hope it means that sometime in May, President Morales will
wake up and realize he is in a different country than the one
he had planned. I hope it means he starts acting like the
president of ALL Bolivians and makes moves to reconcile the
country." Along this line, even the harshest critics of the
Morales administration in Santa Cruz believe the president
must finish his term. "We must prove that our drive for
autonomy is not an attempt to drive him from office, but
simply to govern ourselves better. We must get rid of the
labels he has given us."

Comment:
--------------


8. (C) The forward momentum on the autonomy referendum
appears almost impossible to stop. The recent clumsy moves
by Morales have only served to strenghten the pro-autonomy
movement. It seems unlikely that even international
mediation will be able to stop this train. At this point it
is not clear what Morales might do to try to halt the
autonomy referendum from going forward, but it is evident
that the opposition believes it cannot be stopped.

GOLDBERG