EVO RECASTS HIMSELF AS PEACEMAKER

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000056

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2017
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL VN BL
SUBJECT: EVO RECASTS HIMSELF AS PEACEMAKER

REF: LA PAZ 9

Classified By: Acting EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Despite heated rhetoric leading up the event,
a January 7-8 meeting between Bolivian President Evo Morales
and nine department prefects (state governors) was
surprisingly conciliatory. Participants agreed to attempt to
resolve demands from opposition-led departments with a
national unity pact. The government agreed to change the
draft constitution accordingly prior to submitting it to a
national referendum. Morales even invited the prefects to
spend a shared vacation with him during Carnival. Prefects
appear disarmed by the new kinder, gentler Evo, but remain
cautiously optimistic. The La Paz Prefect told EmbOff
whether the new approach is show or substance should be clear
by January 14, when the prefects and Morales meet to discuss
progress of the working groups. If the government has not
advanced concrete proposals by then, the outreach may only
result in an extension of the Christmas peace pact through
the Carnival holiday (February 4-5). Whether government
stall tactic, a sign of MAS weakness, or a genuine overture
to national unity, the new government approach is a welcome
departure from escalating hostility with the opposition. End
Summary.

Evo/Prefect Meeting: Surprisingly Kumbuya
--------------


2. (U) President Evo Morales and Bolivia's nine prefects
(governors) were civil and constructive during a marathon,
eleven-hour meeting January 7-8 to discuss the complaints of
five opposition-led departments (states) that went through
the night. Both sides were surprisingly conciliatory,
considering the heated, intransigent rhetoric leading up to
the meeting (reftel). Morales proposed a national agreement
with the prefects "for a new country" because "the people
want us to stay together. ... Let us work together to
resolve our differences." He suggested the leaders spend the
Carnival holiday together in Oruro, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba,
or Tarija as a symbol of national unity, which has been
strained by the autonomy movement in opposition-led
departments and government passage of the constitution and
legislation without opposition input.


3. (U) Although he did not dismiss the possibility of a joint
holiday with Morales, Pando Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez urged
meeting participants to focus on the substantive issues at
hand. Opposition Prefect Ruben Costas from Santa Cruz
supported the idea of a pact with national government and
called for national "spiritual disarmament" similar to what
President Nelson Mandela accomplished in South Africa.


4. (U) Despite pre-meeting speculation the government would
attempt to kidnap, detain, or otherwise threaten visiting
prefects with police or through street demonstrations, there
was no violence of note associated with the meeting. A small
group of pro-government protesters burned copies of
opposition department autonomy decrees outside the
presidential palace.

GOB Offers Reopening MAS Constitution for Prefect Pact
-------------- --------------


5. (U) At 0300 Pando Prefect Fernandez asked the media to
leave the room for a more "intimate" session that lasted
until 0500. During this session, prefects discussed the
establishment of a commission proposed by Morales to achieve
a national unity pact between prefect and national
governments. Morales and the prefects agreed prefect
representatives would work with Presidency Minister Juan
Ramon Quintana on the following subjects: national unity,
democratic institutionalism, state control of the economy,
supporting the process of "change," departmental autonomy,
assistance to the elderly (renta dignidad),increased
government transparency, respect for public and private
property, and a recall referendum for the president and
prefects. Three sub-committees will be established to
discuss legal issues (headed by Government Vice Minster
Hector Arce),economics/hydrocarbon revenue, and autonomy
(headed by Defense Minister Walker San Miguel).


6. (C) Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera opened the
possibility of revising the draft Constitution ostensibly
approved during a December 9 session of the Constituent
Assembly (CA) by the ruling MAS party. (Note: The opposition
was largely unable to attend the session convened on short
notice in Oruro city, far from the CA Sucre headquarters.
They were also blocked out of Congress when a controversial
law was approved in November that would redistribute
hydrocarbons tax revenue from prefect coffers to a fund for
the elderly-renta dignidad. End Note.)


7. (U) Morales said any changes to the constitution resulting
from an agreement with the prefects would be made prior to
sending the constitution to a national referendum. Prefects
cautioned that most citizens were wholly unaware of the
contents of the constitution. Morales also expressed
surprising flexibility on hydrocarbon revenue sharing as
well, stating "we cannot let the prefects down."

La Paz Prefect Comes Out Swinging
--------------


8. (U) Normally fiery opposition prefects were on their best
behavior, leaving La Paz Prefect Jose Luis Paredes with the
most confrontational moments of the meeting. Paredes asked
Morales why he ignored the needs of La Paz Department,
despite La Paz's key role electing him to office. "If the
economy is so great, why have there been no public works for
La Paz; because of the government's discrimination for
pacenos." Paredes said the only help his constituents
receive is from Venezuelan checks to mayors, which he found
"humiliating" and consistent with the government's
"submission" to the Venezuelan Government. After a few
awkward moments of silence, Vice President Garcia Linera
responded that a road project and petroleum exploration were
planned for La Paz, to which Morales added "it is impossible
to meet all the demands in two years." Paredes also accused
Morales of authoritarianism and racism, despite Morales'
allegedly weak claims to the indigenous Aymara ancestry.
"Stop it, you are no more indigenous than I am."

Cautious Optimism
--------------


9. (C) When asked whether he thought his comments could have
angered Morales and affected his disposition to negotiate,
Paredes told EmbOff. "I said what I had to say and what he
does not hear enough of. Sure, he could take it negatively,
but it had to be done come what may." Paredes said he said
he was pleasantly surprised at the "positive" meeting and
held real hope it could result in a solution for the country.
He said the next step is a series of technical meetings
during the week, starting with a technical meeting January 9
to discuss the hydrocarbons law. Prefects will not meet
again until 1000 Monday, January 14, when he said the true
intentions of the government will be clear based on whether
or not concrete measures emerge from the working groups. In
any event, Paredes said his strategy will not change: push
for La Paz projects and representation. He said the Media
Luna prefects and Morales were in a much more complicated
negotiation situation, having to back away from the bravado
and standoff of the past weeks.

Substance or Subterfuge?
--------------


10. (C) Ernesto Farfan, the Economic Development Secretary
for the Tarija Prefect, told EmbOff the meetings have so far
yielded a truce that might create the breathing room needed
for an agreement, but that the substantive work would start
today. He said the Tarija Prefect's Office remained
skeptical, but viewed as positive Morales' opening of
constitution and recognition of the autonomous movement.
Human Rights Ombudsman Waldo Albarracin characterized the
meeting as a positive starting point for negotiations.
Albarracin's independent government office spearheaded
efforts to organize religious, social, and labor groups
calling on both sides for to reach a unity pact.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) Prefects have told us they needed to give dialogue
another chance, despite reservations that Evo would not be
willing to negotiate key issues such as the constitution and
hydrocarbons law or would not stand by any compromises.
Prefects have reason to be leery. Government and MAS-party
leaders have presented a confusing mix of messages leading up
to the event ranging from "everything is on the table" to
listing as "non-negotiable" every key disputed issue,
sometimes in the same speech. Morales has made such
contentious issues as distribution of the hydrocarbon tax,
payments to the elderly, and a recall referendum topics in a
proposed "national agreement" with prefects following public
statements last week that these issues were not negotiable.
Vice President Garcia Linera's suggestion to open up the
constitution comes just a day after he said it was off the
table. Although Evo's new, more conciliatory approach is
welcome, the sincerity of such a radical readjustment of the
government's negotiating posture has to be suspect as either
empty public posturing to appear "reasonable" or a
realization that the government is dealing from a position of
weakness (initial public polls show an uphill struggle to
approve the constitution) and cannot simply force their will
on opposition departments. In any event, Evo doesn't loose
much by trying dialogue and expanding the Christmas truce
until after Carnival (1st week of February),as his security
forces and/or hard-core rural supporters are ill-prepared to
support a more heavy-handed approach before then.


12. (C) Comment Continued: If Evo is in fact serious about
reaching a compromise, he will have to break promises to his
core supporters and reopen the "final" MAS-drafted
Constitution, a slap in the face to his supporters in the
Constituent Assembly. Morales' supporters are likely to
forgive such reversals as their champion's latest
incarnation, Evo the peacekeeper, explains "the people" want
a compromise to hold the country together. But opposition
leaders must be wondering if such proclivity for revising
ostensibly closed subjects will also pertain to any eventual
agreement they reach with the government. In Evo's world, it
seems, the haggling begins after legislation, constitutions,
and agreements are "approved." End Comment.

GOLDBERG