FORMER EVO ALLY LEADS PARALLEL STATE GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000537

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: FORMER EVO ALLY LEADS PARALLEL STATE GOVERNMENT

Classified By: A/DCM Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) At a rally of several thousand Sucre residents,
Sabina Cuellar Leanos, a former member of Evo Morales'
Movement Toward Socialism (MAS),was selected to be
Chuquisaca department's (state) interim prefect (governor) on
March 6. Ariel Iriarte remains the Morales administration's
pick for interim prefect, meaning that Iriarte and Cuellar
both claim the title of Chuquisaca's top official. The
department's elected prefect, the MAS' David Sanchez, fled
Sucre and resigned in late November 2007 when his home was
looted and burned during the November 23-25 riots. The
Morales administration immediately rejected Cuellar's
selection as interim prefect, calling it illegal. The
government has a legitimate argument that only the President
can designate an interim prefect. Nevertheless, the
opposition's selection of Cuellar was a clever political
move. The selection of an indigenous campesino woman, and
one-time member of the MAS, is meant to send President
Morales a signal that he has lost not just Chuquisaca's white
elite, but also his traditional followers. Nobody has yet
explained how these "dueling prefects" will co-exist, and who
most civil servants will report to. Iriarte may command the
legitimate authorities (i.e., the police),but Cuellar will
probably control the streets. End Summary.

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The "Vote" for Cuellar
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2. (SBU) According to a close Embassy contact who
participated in the selection of Cuellar, the anti-MAS
Chuquisaca Inter-Institutional Committee leadership was
advised to choose a nominee based on the three criteria:
someone who was originally from the MAS; a woman; and,
preferably someone from rural Chuquisaca. La Paz newspaper
La Razon provided a somewhat similar assessment. La Razon
reported that the Committee leader Jaime Barron had actually
hoped to postpone (until March 14) a vote on the interim
prefect but was overcome by the crowds. Barron is alleged to
have argued that since there was little rural participation
at the rally, it would be prudent to select someone who
represented the countryside.

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Who is this New Parallel Prefect?
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3. (SBU) Cuellar, a widow and mother of six children, was a
leader in a Chuquisaca campesino (peasant) organization
before her election to the Constituent Assembly. She is
Quechua, the largest indigenous group in Bolivia. She also
speaks Quechua fluently. According to Sucre's newspaper
"Correo del Sur" until 2006, Cuellar was illiterate, and
learned how to read via the Cuban literacy program "Yo, Si
Puedo" (Yes I Can). An Embassy contact confirmed Cuellar is
"not very educated" and argued they chose the "capable" Juan
Luis Gantier to be the department's general secretary to take
care of day-to-day administration. She is originally from
the small town of Yamparaez located near Sucre. Cuellar was
elected in 2006 to the Constituent Assembly under the MAS
banner. Cuellar broke with the MAS when the party chose to
strike the issue of restoring Sucre to full capital status
from the Constituent Assembly's agenda in August 2007.
(Note: By law Cuellar is still a member of Constituent
Assembly and therefore is prohibited from holding any other
public office. The MAS has already made an issue of this
fact. End Note).


4. (SBU) Cuellar has spoken out in defense of restoring the
seat of government (the executive and legislative branches)
to Sucre. In morning TV interviews March 7, Cuellar stated
that the Morales government "discriminates against
Chuquisaca" and that "Chuquisaca merits respect." She went
on to state that Chuquisaca should "move forward" with plans
to hold a new referendum on departmental autonomy. (Comment:
Chuquisaca in a July 2006 referendum was one of the five
departments that rejected departmental autonomy. Today, due
to a backlash against the MAS' handling of the Sucre-issue,
Chuquisaca would likely vote in favor of greater autonomy,
especially since Sucre represents over 50 percent of the
department's electorate. End Comment).

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Why a Parallel Prefect?
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5. (SBU) Chuquisaca has had an interim prefect, Mr. Ariel
Iriarte, since its elected prefect, the MAS' David Sanchez,
fled Sucre in late November 2007 when his home was looted and
burned during the November 23-25 riots. Sanchez was seen by
Sucre residents as favoring the MAS position not to restore
Sucre as Bolivia's seat of government. Although, never a
MAS-party hard-liner, his weak defense of Sucre's demand for
full-capital status turned him into a target for pro-Sucre
(anti-MAS) radicals. Sanchez later turned up in Peru and
announced he was seeking asylum.


6. (SBU) Cuellar's "selection" was a direct result of
President Morales' decision to extend Iriarte's interim
status an additional three months. On March 5, the President
issued two supreme decrees: one setting June 29 as the date
for elections for a new prefect; and, the second extending
Iriarte's interim tenure. The pro-Sucre Chuquisaca
Inter-Institutional Committee has long-viewed Iriarte as
beholden to Morales and not representative of its demands to
promote the restoration of Sucre.


7. (SBU) Cuellar and her supporters are pushing for
elections for a new prefect on April 27, the same date they
have called for a new referendum on departmental autonomy.
The Morales administration has made clear that it supports a
June 29 election, and opposes a new referendum on
departmental autonomy. Cuellar would likely be barred from
running for prefect. Another former MAS Constituent Assembly
delegate Edgar Arraya is considered the consensus candidate.
Arraya also broke with the MAS over the issue of restoring
Sucre to full capital status. He appears to have the backing
of PODEMOS, the main opposition party.

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Government Reactions
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8. (SBU) The Morales administration immediately rejected
Cuellar's selection as interim prefect. Vice Minister of
Justice Wilfredo Chavez made the government's position clear,
"The Government will not recognize in any way another
authority which is not sanctioned under the constitution or
by the people's vote." Chavez continued by stating, "In
every department, the Executive is in charge an administers
(the department) via a Prefect designated by the President of
the Republic."

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Comment
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9. (C) The government has a legitimate argument that only
the President can designate an interim prefect. Under the
current constitution the President is responsible for
designating prefects, but a recent change in the law allows
for the direct election of prefects. The President still
technically designates prefects but now must appoint the
election winner, and not his own candidate. The first
election of prefects occurred in December 2005, making Evo
Morales the first President to have to govern Bolivia without
prefects who are his direct appointees. There is some debate
over how long an interim prefect may govern. Proponents of
Cuellar argue that Iriarte has exhausted the 90 days he was
permitted to serve. While Cuellar's appointment may be
popular amongst some sectors, the government is correct in
that it has no legal basis.


10. (C) Nevertheless, the Chuquisaca Inter-Institutional
Committee's selection of Cuellar was a clever political move.
The white-male dominated committee would have lost
credibility if it had selected one if its insiders. Morales
and his colleagues routinely lambaste the departmental "civic
committees" in Bolivia's opposition led departments of not
representing "the people" often calling their leadership
"oligarchs." Cuellar has already publicly stated that "There
are no oligarchs in Chuquisaca." The selection of an
indigenous campesino woman, and one-time member of the MAS,
is meant to send President Morales a signal that he has lost
not just Chuquisaca's white elite, but also his traditional
followers. Some in the government will surely argue that the
Chuquisaca Inter-Institutional Committee is simply using
Cuellar )- and perhaps they are )- but she had broken with
the MAS long prior to her selection as interim prefect. One
thing is clear, Cuellar's selection opens up yet another
front in the countless battles the Morales administration now
has to contend with, and provides further evidence that
Chuquisaca is now firmly in the anti-Evo camp.


11. (C) Nobody has yet explained how these "dueling
prefects" will co-exist, and who most civil servants will
report to. Presumably the police will respond to Iriarte as
he has the backing of the central government. However, the
police may resist any orders that require the police to
arrest Cuellar and her backers given the police's treatment
in the November riots. Four police facilities, police
records and equipment (including cars) were destroyed. The
police abandoned city for three days following the violence.
Iriarte may command the legitimate authorities, but Cuellar
will probably control the streets. Cuellar's supporters plan
to take the prefecture building "peacefully" in the coming
days. Rumors are that Iriarte is setting up shop in the town
of Tarabuco some 65 km outside of Sucre. End Comment.
GOLDBERG