EVO LAYS OUT STRATEGY TO APPOVE CONSTITUTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000406

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: EVO LAYS OUT STRATEGY TO APPOVE CONSTITUTION

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Despite continuing calls for dialogue, President
Evo Morales' ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party has
laid out an aggressive strategy for pushing through its draft
constitution. The MAS' goal is simple; organize a national
referendum on the MAS draft constitution before the
opposition-led department (state) of Santa Cruz can implement
its autonomy referendum. The MAS' tactics to achieve this
goal are also fairly simple: offer platitudes about a
willingness for dialogue with the opposition; meanwhile
pressure and encircle Congress (starting February 26) with
MAS-allied social groups until Congress approves legislation
on a constitutional referendum; and, ramp-up outrageous
accusations of the USG conspiring with the opposition to
topple Evo -- to fire-up the MAS base, denigrate the
opposition, and distract from economic mismanagement. While
the U.S. mission can weather the verbal assaults, the
potential for physical assaults between Bolivians is
intensifying. The Christmas and Carnaval recess from
confrontation has ended. If either the MAS or opposition
manages to organize a referendum, the likelihood that their
bellicose rhetoric turns to violence rises. End Summary.

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Moving Up the Timetable
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2. (U) The Vice Minster of Decentralization Fabian Yasik
most eloquently defined the government's strategy regarding
the passing of the MAS' draft constitution vis-a-vis the
autonomy referenda demanded by four opposition-led
departments. Yasik stated, "it is important that the
preliminary (constitutional) referendum . . . happens before
the autonomy statutes." Yasik added that, "this (the Santa
Cruz autonomy referendum) initiative obligates an
acceleration of timetables" regarding the approval of the MAS
constitution.


3. (C) Comment: The Santa Cruz prefect and civic committee
have pushed for May 4 referendum in the hope that they could
beat the central government to a national referendum on the
MAS draft constitution. The government has proven once again
that it will not be outmaneuvered by the opposition. Evo and
his associates will likely use all tools available to
accelerate the timetable for a national referendum on the MAS
constitution. The government's strategy hinges on the MAS
constitution receiving the necessary simple majority (50
percent plus one),an outcome which is not certain. The
opposition remains hesitant about participating in a
referendum of an "illegal constitution" fearing it would
validate it. Even if the opposition participates, fraud and
Venezuelan money could help Evo win. Evo's recent
appointment of a MAS partisan to the National Electoral Court
could further tilt the scales. End Comment).

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Two for One Referendum
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4. (U) The government, via its spokesperson Alex Contreras,
has proposed that a preliminary referendum --on one contested
article in the MAS draft constitution-- be scheduled at the
same time as a referendum on the entire constitution.
(Comment: The contested article was only contested within the
MAS as the opposition did not participate in the final
Constituent Assembly session where the MAS draft was
approved. Had the opposition attended there would have been
many contested articles. End Comment). Contreras explained
that the government is urging Congress to "reach consensus"
to pass the dual referendum proposal for the sake of
democracy, and reiterated the President's position that the
autonomy statutes are illegal, illegitimate and meant to
divide the country. (Comment: A single referendum
encompassing the contested article and the entire
constitution would violate the Constituent Assembly's
enabling legislation; however, it would meet the government's
objective to accelerate the approval of the MAS constitution.
End Comment).

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Congress: Under Pressure
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5. (U) To put pressure on the Bolivian Congress, ten
MAS-allied social sector groups issued a declaration stating
that starting February 26 they will carry out nationwide
protests and encircle Congress to urge the legislature to
"approve a law on . . . the referendum to approve a new
constitution." The declaration also states that the groups
"reject, condemn and resist the convocation of a referendum
on the autonomy statutes, in Santa Cruz slated for May 4 . .
." The groups issued their declaration on February 24, the
same day President Morales met with members the lowland
indigenous group CIDOB, one of the signatories of the
declaration.


6. (U) The declaration follows the formation of a "special
commission" February 21 in Congress designed to reach a
national consensus on the MAS and opposition's differences
over the constitution and departmental autonomy. The talks
are scheduled to resume February 25 at 4:00 PM, just a few
hours before the pro-MAS groups plan to encircle Congress.
(Comment: Despite statements that the government wishes to
engage in dialogue, the government has been noticeably silent
regarding the pending encirclement of Congress by pro-MAS
groups. End Comment).


7. (SBU) This would be third time in four months that
MAS-allied groups have used intimidation tactics to prevent
opposition members from participating in the political
deliberations. Pro-MAS groups physically prevented
opposition members from entering Congress November 27, 2007
allowing the MAS to convene a session of Congress and pass
new legislation regarding the functioning of the Constituent
Assembly as well as a new MAS-proposed pension program (Renta
Dignidad) which is funded by reducing revenue transfers to
the departments. A similar tactic was used during the
Constituent Assembly's last working session in Oruro December
9, in which the MAS passed its draft constitution. The MAS
successfully blocked the opposition from attending, by
calling the Assembly session with less than the requisite
24-hours notice, and then by employing pro-MAS social groups
outside the session to threaten any opposition members who
considered attending.


8. (SBU) Congress is the only legal authority permitted to
write and pass the enabling legislation for the
constitutional referenda; however, given that the Senate is
controlled by the opposition, progress on the legislation has
moved slowly. The government has occasionally hinted that it
may employ another method to move the referenda forward. The
MAS, during its hastily convened final session of the
Constituent Assembly passed a resolution allowing the
President to authorize the referendum, should Congress not
complete its duties within 30 days. The resolution clearly
violates the assembly's enabling legislation. However,
without a quorum in the Constitutional Tribunal there is no
court to rule whether Morales' action would be legal.

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Morales Lashes Out Against Ambassador and USAID
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9. (U) Just four days after Congressman Engel's CODEL visit
to Bolivia where the members asked Morales to tone down his
anti-American rhetoric, President Morales, Presidential
Spokesperson Contreras and Presidency Minister Juan Ramon
Quintana fired more salvos against the Ambassador and USAID.
Following a February 24 meeting with lowlands indigenous
group CIDOB Morales stated, "Personally I am going to
dedicate myself to informing (the public) how some internal
and external agents headed by the U.S. Ambassador conspire
against our government, and they do not want to see the
profound changes included in the new constitution, which is
the best way to bring equality to our country." Evo argued
he did not respect the Ambassador, stating "I said two weeks
ago that we have much respect for ambassadors, but the
ambassadors who don't engage in politics, and the United
States engages in politics."


10. (U) Morales also renewed his accusations against USAID
of financing the opposition and buying off journalists,
stating "USAID is offering money to NGOs on the condition
that they oppose the government." Quintana went further,
announcing February 25 that he would personally travel to the
United States to deliver proof to members of the U.S.
Congress that USAID is interfering in Bolivia's domestic
affairs and supporting the opposition. (Comment:
Interestingly, Presidency Minister Quintana chose not to
deliver his proof to Congressman Engel's delegation during
their February 19 meeting with President Morales. End
Comment).


11. (C) Comment: Evo's constant haranguing against the USG,
the Ambassador, and USAID appears to have several
motivations, beyond Evo's personal resentment and mistrust of
the USG. The President likely believes it will fire up his
base and get more of his supporters into the streets,
protesting and threatening the opposition and
opposition-controlled Senate. Evo also likely sees linking
the USG with the opposition as a way to denigrate the
opposition, making his opponents look like they do not act on
their own behalf but on the wishes of the "empire." This is
why Evo has made linkages between the Ambassador's service in
Kosovo, Kosovo's recent independence announcement, and the
opposition-led departments' autonomy movements. Attacks on
the USG also serve as a distraction at a time when Evo is
struggling with higher inflation and a failure in his
negotiations with Brazil and Argentina to obtain concessions
on Bolivia's future gas delivery obligations. End Comment.
GOLDBERG