BOLIVIA: PARTIES GEAR UP FOR 2009 ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002393

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2018
TAGS: BL ECON ENVR KDEM PGOV PREL PHUM PINR
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: PARTIES GEAR UP FOR 2009 ELECTIONS

REF: LA PAZ 2370

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Bolivian presidential elections are expected
to take place in December 2009 and "only" 15 parties are
registered on the national level. Given that it takes a
minimum of eight months to register a political party,
unaffiliated candidates and parties with lapsed credentials
have recognized there is not much time to spare, and are
actively considering whether to make the effort to form new
parties or update eligibility. As elections draw nearer,
this situation is causing some parties to gear up to meet the
registration deadline, while others are instead making new
alliances (in order to take advantage of their partner
party's eligibility). Former President Tuto Quiroga's
opposition-leading PODEMOS party has seen its registration
lapse, and he will likely break a prior partnership with the
Century 21 party to ally with the Christian Democratic Party
(PDC). Former Vice-President Victor Hugo Cardenas, who is
being mentioned again in political circles as a possible
candidate for either president or vice-president, is the
titular head of the Revolutionary Liberation Movement Tupac
Katari party, but his party has also lost its eligibility,
and Cardenas is now seen as a free agent. With parties from
both sides of the political spectrum looking to form a
centrist coalition to defeat President Morales, we may see
new alliances form and leadership shifts occur in the coming
months. End summary.

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A Paucity of Parties
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2. (C) Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in
December 2009 if the new constitution passes (as expected) in
January, and "only" 15 parties have maintained their
national-level eligibility, according to a report by the
National Electoral Court (CNE). While the Bolivian national
political scene usually enjoys a very large number of
parties, in the last 20 years, 36 parties have lost their
eligibility, leaving only the current 15. According to
leading daily La Razon, in 2007, fifteen new parties
initiated applications to receive eligibility, but of these
only three are considered active. These three include the
Democratic Force (FD) party, led by Adriana Gil, a former
ally of Morales in Santa Cruz who now sees him as a
"dictator" and his party as riddled with corruption; the
Plurinational Alliance of West and East, led by Policarpio
Castaneta; and the Front for Victory, led by Eliseo Rodriguez.


3. (C) Former President Tuto Quiroga's opposition-leading
PODEMOS party has seen its registration lapse, and he will
likely break a prior partnership with the Century 21 party to
ally instead with the Christian Democratic Party (PDC).
Although it leads the national-level opposition and has the
most seats in the Senate, PODEMOS is widely seen as
responsible for having failed to slow Evo's Morales
Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party and for having proposed
a national recall referendum on the Presidency,
Vice-Presidency, and regional Prefectures, which ultimately
only strengthened Evo (Note: he obtained 67 percent support
and the opposition lost two key prefectures - La Paz and
Cochabamba. End note.). PODEMOS' slide is seen by some as
having opened a political vacuum, either for a centrist
coalition or for parties representing the more radical civic
committees in the eastern, "Media Luna" part of the country.

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Eligible Parties
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4. (U) The fifteen currently eligible parties include the
following: President Morales' Movement Toward Socialism
party, or MAS; the Century 21 party, led by Marcelo Bravo
Porcel (which is recognized primarily for its alliance with
opposition leaders PODEMOS); the National Unity Front, or UN,
led by Samuel Doria Medina; the National Revolutionary
Movement party, or MNR, which is the oldest party but
currently without a leader; the Social Alliance party, or AS,
led by Rene Joaquino Cabrera; the Plan for Bolivian Progress
party, or PPB, led by Jose Luis Paredes (aka Pepe Lucho); the
Movement Without Fear party, or MSM, led by Juan del Granado;
the United Civic Solidarity party, or UCS, led by Jhonny
Fernandez; and the Movement of United Social Patriotism, or
MUSPA, led by Juan Gabriel Bautista.


5. (U) Other parties include the National Democratic Action
party, the Left Revolutionary Front, the Christian Democratic
Party, the Bolivian Social Democrats, the Villages for
Liberty and Sovereignty party, and the National Concert
party.

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Wheeling and Dealing
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6. (C) UN Party leader Samuel Doria Medina has proposed to
create a "United Front of the Left" to challenge President
Evo Morales in the expected December 2009 elections (reftel).
Such a "United Front," if it occurred, could help bring in
currently unaffiliated politicians. Former President Carlos
Mesa has reportedly been in conversations with Doria Medina
regarding a potential spot under the "United Front" banner.
(Note: As this effort is being spearheaded by Doria Medina,
for eligibility purposes the United Front presumably would
ally with the UN. End note.)


7. (C) Similarly, former Vice-President Victor Hugo Cardenas
is also being mentioned in political circles as a possible
candidate for either president or vice-president. Cardenas
was the head of the Revolutionary Liberation Movement Tupac
Katari party, but his party has lost its eligibility, and
Cardenas is now seen as a free agent.

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Eligibility Requirements
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8. (U) The process to register a national-level party takes
approximately eight to nine months. A minimum of 57,476
signatures must be obtained within a period of six months,
and the signatures are then verified by the CNE. A party's
eligibility may be revoked for one of five reasons: first, if
a party declares itself defunct; second, if a party does not
obtain more than three percent of the total votes cast in the
last election in which they participated; third, if a party
does not participate in two consecutive elections; fourth, if
a party participates in a coup d'etat or other seditious
acts; or last, if a party does not update its registration of
enrolled supporters according to CNE rules.
URS