EMERGENCY ACTION COMMITTEE MEETING-LA PAZ 9/23

S E C R E T LA PAZ 002083

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2018
TAGS: AMER ASEC AMGT PTER CASC BL
SUBJECT: EMERGENCY ACTION COMMITTEE MEETING-LA PAZ 9/23
1600

REF: LA PAZ 2000 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: RSO Patrick J. Moore, reasons 1.4c,d


1. (S/NF) Summary: The Emergency Action Committee (EAC,
consisting of EXEC, RSO, CONS, MGT, GSO, ECOP, DEA, NAS,
USAID, ORA, DAO, MSG, MILGRP, IPC, MED, SSAT, and others) met
September 23 at 1600 to discuss the current situation in
Santa Cruz, where government supporters (some armed) have
surrounded the city. Some government-aligned leaders have
announced that they will enter the city on September 24, a
local holiday for Santa Cruz Day. The Santa Cruz Consular
Agency, which has been open to provide emergency American
citizen services, will be closed on September 24 due to the
local holiday. Post already sent a warden message warning
American citizens about possible violence on September 24 and
will send another warden message alerting American citizens
to the fact that American Airlines has canceled flights into
Bolivia until September 29. All official Americans have been
relocated from Santa Cruz. NAS locally engaged staff (LES)
assigned to do maintenance in Santa Cruz will also have
September 24 off due to the local holiday. NAS Amcit
maintenance contractors are also present in Santa Cruz,
having declined to be relocated. End summary.

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Santa Cruz Situation
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2. (S/NF) On September 23, the government asked its
supporters to temporarily suspend the siege of Santa Cruz for
48 hours. Contacts report that the government-aligned groups
are letting some vehicles through blockades, but it is not
clear if this is universal nor how long it will last. EAC
agreed that even should the 48 hour truce succeed, problems
will start up again after that unless the opposition gives in
to President Morales' demands. Sources report that both sides
are armed with personal weapons and ready to fight, with the
opposition-aligned Santa Cruz Youth Union and university
students reportedly preparing a trap for the government
forces which could lead to a bloodbath. EAC agreed to
closely watch the situation, since the events in Santa Cruz
could affect Post's decisions on possible further drawdown
and defensive posture in La Paz.

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Impact of ATPDEA Announcement
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3. (S/NF) We understand that an announcement of the decision
to suspend ATPDEA benefits for Bolivia may come as early as
Friday September 26. EAC discussed possibility that this
announcement could prompt government-aligned groups to
protest at the Embassy: such protests are likely, especially
if things go badly for the government forces in Santa Cruz on
September 24. EAC discussed the possibility of working with
DC to delay the announcement if the situation warrants, while
noting that the events of 2003's "Black October" make October
a bad month for any USG actions against Bolivia. Delaying
the decision until October might not actually be helpful.

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Possible Impact of Goni Case
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4. (S/NF) EAC discussed State Department's planned amicus
curae brief in the case against ex-President Goni Sanchez de
Lozada (who is a much-hated figure in El Alto and among
government supporters.) If the amicus curae brief becomes
public in October, this could be another goad to the
government and increase the chance of violent protests at the
Embassy.

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Ordered Departure Conditions Not Met
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5. (S/NF) Currently no ordered-departure tripwires have been
passed, although EAC classified three tripwires as "still
green but verging to amber":

-international airports closed: airports are still open, but
cancellation of American Airlines flights significantly
decreases ability to leave via commercial means;

-level of violence and threats to Amcits: level of violence
is still minimal, but the next 48 hours in Santa Cruz could
be critical; however, there is no current information on
specific threats to Americans or American interests.

-evidence suggesting government or military is helping
violent groups: some unconfirmed reports suggest that the
military has been trucking protesters to the siege blockades
in Santa Cruz.


6. (S/NF) Post has already taken some of the preliminary
steps that precede an ordered departure, however: personnel
have been drawn down via authorized departure. Charge spoke
with the Vice Foreign Minister to reiterate concern over
security and the safety of our personnel. Charge also
explained to the Vice Foreign Minister the goals of the SSAT
military personnel in assisting with evacuation planning;
once the Vice Foreign Minister understood, he agreed to
instruct his consular colleagues to issue visas to other SSAT
team members which had been refused due to the Bolivian
government's concerns about military personnel entering the
country.

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Actions Considered
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7. (S/NF) The EAC reviewed actions to take and notifications
needed for Mission personnel and U.S. wardens. The following
is provided:

a. Sections and agencies will look at personnel and assets in
El Alto (unmarked USAID warehouses and MILGRP facilities
located at the Bolivian air force base at the airport),
preparing for possible violent protests after the ATPDEA
announcement or in conjunction with the Goni case.

b. Post will follow up with Washington to find out more about
the probable timing of the ATPDEA announcement and discuss
modification of that timing if deemed appropriate.

c. EAC will develop, with SSAT, a plan for immediate response
in the event of a sudden emergency, i.e. a coup attempt or
President Morales' death. Section and agency heads will send
inputs to RSO.

d. Front office will seek Foreign Ministry assurances that
the government will facilitate an evacuation in the event one
is needed. (Note: The government has consistently said it
will honor its Vienna Convention responsibilities to protect
the Mission, although these reassurances were undermined by
the government's apparent role in organizing the June 9
demonstrations at the chancery. End note.)

e. Sections and agencies will consider where they might set
up a secondary office, should access to the Embassy or
alternate command centers be compromised. Additionally, EAC
and RSO will look at the advisability of "cluster housing"
should the mission need to go into hunker-down mode.

f. USAID will be prepared to set up the alternate command
center on September 24, if needed.

g. EAC will meet again on 9/24 to assess situation in Santa
Cruz, if needed.

h. POCs are RSO Patrick Moore (moorepj@state.gov) and DRSO
Daniel Hernandez (hernandezd@state.gov),IVG 547-8300.
URS