MASSIVE BLACKOUTS PROMPTS PUNJAB PROTESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAHORE 000290


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2018
TAGS: ECON PK ENRG PGOV
SUBJECT: MASSIVE BLACKOUTS PROMPTS PUNJAB PROTESTS

Derived from: DSCG 05-1, E


1. (SBU) Multi-hour blackouts, known locally as "loadshedding,"
over the past week sparked several protests in and around Lahore
October 20 and 21. Protestors have told reporters that while
overbilling by the Lahore Electricty Supply Company (LESCO) had
made them angry, frustration over the worsening power outages
ultimately fueled the gatherings. According to news reports,
the protestors seized furniture and computers from a local LESCO
office October 20 and set them on fire outside the building,
while several attempted but failed to ignite the office. In a
separate incident, police dispersed another group protesting
LESCO by blocking GT Road October 20. Several groups also
blocked main thoroughfares in Lahore October 21, while several
local LESCO offices found themselves under siege, prompting
LESCO officials to flee. Punjab University students also staged
a demonstration October 20 demanding that the university set up
its own generator to offset outages, which had reached up to
five continuous hours.


2. (SBU) In response to the protests, LESCO Chief Executive
Akram Arain told reporters October 20 that LESCO faced a 1,7000
megawatt (MW) deficit, and could only fulfill 1,000-1,200 MW of
the total demand of 2,700 MW during peak hours. He admitted
that loadshedding has reached nine hours per day in urban areas,
but he expected that an increase in water released from
reservoirs starting November 1 would alleviate the problem.
According to Dawn, he could not explain why LESCO experienced a
55 percent shortage and the country only 40-45 percent.


3. (SBU) A local union president representing Water and Power
Department employees told his union leadership October 21 that
the federal government has punished Punjab by increasing the
tariffs more than in other provinces. People should criticize
the rulers, he suggested.


4. (C) According to police sources, the number of protestors
approached 1,000 on October 20, exceeding the 150 protestors
reported by The Daily News and 600-700 who initially gathered in
Gujjarpura according to Dawn. The October 21 protests appear to
have been larger and more numerous. Local residents have also
told conoffs that the media has reported every protest in the
Lahore area. The gatherings have tended to occur in lower and
middle-class neighborhoods strained by the excessive
loadshedding, which has far exceeded the official number of nine
hours per day given by LESCO.


5. (C) Comment: The unprecedented amount of loadshedding has the
potential to spark widespread unrest in Punjab. The material
impact of outages hurts the province at a time of already
declining crop yields, rising prices, decreasing exports and
lack of liquidity. The outages mean that famers cannot irrigate
their fields, mill owners cannot run their textile factories and
businesses cannot swipe a credit card on a regular basis.
Moreover, the discrepancy between the nine hours of loadshedding
officially announced and the 18 hours experienced per day with
little explanation has caused deep resentment throughout Punjab.
Politicians of all stripes have stood back because they have no
quick fix to the situation, and they hope that diverting water
in November from the reservoirs will help alleviate the
shortage. At the moment, they have let the bureaucrats of LESCO
feel the brunt of the mob's anger. But, if the loadshedding
continues unabated, the protestors may soon turn their attention
to their elected officials, both in the province and the federal
government.

HUNT