PUNJAB POLITICIANS FOCUSED ON U.S.-PAKISTAN RELATIONSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAHORE 000289


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ECON PK IN
SUBJECT: PUNJAB POLITICIANS FOCUSED ON U.S.-PAKISTAN RELATIONSHIP
DURING SECURITY AND ECONOMIC CRISES

CLASSIFIED BY: Bryan Hunt, Principal Officer, Consulate Lahore,
U.S. Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: In a series of October 9 meetings, Punjab
politicians told Director of the Office of Pakistan and
Bangladesh (SCA/PB) Brent Hartley that the bilateral
relationship remained critical for Pakistan to survive the
series of crises currently underway. Pakistan Muslim
League-Nawaz (PMLN) members of the Punjab Assembly (MPA) thought
that the U.S. has mishandled the conflict in the FATA and NWFP
areas by ignoring local customs and needs, while a Pakistan
People's Party (PPP) member recognized that the U.S. and
Pakistan face a common enemy. The PMLN representatives urged the
U.S. to encourage investment and allow technology transfer to
help Punjab withstand the economic crisis, while the PPP focused
on development assistance as a priority area in Pakistan.
Regarding India, a senior Pakistan Muslim League (PML)
politician argued that Pakistan must resolve its differences to
benefit from India's economic success, while the PMLN complained
that strong U.S.-India relationship has muddied Pakistanis'
sentiments towards the U.S. Turning to the provincial
government, the PPP MPA related that it has made overtures to
other parties in the Assembly, but the PML politician thought
that the PMLN would ultimately survive in Punjab. End Summary.

- - -
PMLN Complain That U.S. Contributed to Terrorist Growth, But
Others Recognize a Common Enemy
- - -


2. (C) During an October 9 meeting with Director of the Office
of Pakistan and Bangladesh Brent Hartley, a group of Pakistan
Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) politicians criticized the U.S. for
sticking to the same counter-terrorist strategy that existed
under former President Musharraf. Muhammad Pervaiz Malik, PMLN
Central Finance Secretary, thought that the U.S. should engage
with all political parties rather than its past history of
"selective engagement." Malik blamed U.S. support for Musharraf
on the growth of terrorism: "Democracies don't have terrorist
groups, and U.S. support for Musharraf gave the terrorists
support."


3. (C) Several politicians thought that Pakistan and the U.S.
have taken a misguided approach to the FATA and NWFP areas.
Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah Khan advised that the war on
terror "cannot be won until the foreign forces are out." He
acknowledged that the U.S. can support Pakistan, but emphasized
that "there is no chance of winning the war with foreign
soliders." Hartley made clear that the U.S. has no troops in
Pakistan, but has offered assistance to Pakistan's forces. Dr.
Saeed Elahi, an MPA from Lahore, observed that the Pakistan Army
has little knowledge of the tribal areas, and he estimated that
75 percent of the army and 90 percent of the generals have never
served in FATA or NWFP. He suggested that the U.S. involve more
Pashtuns at the ground level in order to earn local buy-in. MPA
Dr. Asad Ashraf urged the U.S. to contribute more resources to
the fight. Hartley noted that the U.S. has committed USD 750
million to develop the FATA and NWFP, and has started to help
equip Pakistan's forces with upgrades and precision-targeting on
F-16s.


4. (C) In a separate meeting with Hartley, Pakistan People's
Party (PPP) MPA Qasim Zia agreed that Pakistan resists foreign
incursions from any country, but he acknowledged that the U.S.
and Pakistan face a common enemy. "It is not only your war, but
our war as well," he remarked. He noted that the September 30
bombing of an MPA's residence in rural western Punjab sent a
message that "all politicians are now a target." Hartley
observed that President Zardari has made the right statements
regarding the war on terror, but he wanted to see an actual plan
put forward.


5. (C) Pakistan Muslim League (PML) Senior Vice President and
former Federal Commerce Minister Humayun Akhtar Khan told
Hartley in a separate meeting that the U.S. and Pakistan must
work together in the long-term. "Even before the arrival of the
Taliban, we had made a number of mistakes in the tribal areas,"
he recalled, and explained that weak administration and the use
of political agents created vacuums that "religious elements"
filled. He suggested that the government must "give proper
protection to people who are with us because anyone against the
Taliban will be killed."

- - -
Assistance Needed to Prop Up Economy
- - -


6. (C) All the politicians agreed that Pakistan faced a dire
economic situation. PMLN Finance Secretary Malik recommended
that the U.S. encourage more foreign direct investment and
"quick injections," particularly in agriculture. He specified
that technology transfers, such as the impending introduction of
Monsanto BT cotton in Punjab, would help the farming sector, but
he cautioned against pricing the seeds too high. PPP MPA Zia
pleaded that "we really need aid and help." He listed poverty,
education, sanitation and clean water as the top issues in
Punjab. Taking a more optimistic outlook, PML Senior VP Akhtar
Khan recalled that Pakistan had rapidly recovered from a worse
situation in 1998-99 when it had a USD 11 billion black hole in
foreign reserves. Now, he contended, Pakistan merely faced an
insufficient amount of reserves.

- - -
U.S.-India Friendship Could Hurt U.S.-Pakistan Relationship, But
Pakistan Must Also Make Peace with India
- - -


7. (C) With the Secretary's visit to New Delhi making headlines,
the politicans concentrated on the U.S.-India and Pakistan-India
nexus. The PMLN politicians groused that the nuclear deal has
turned Pakistanis off of the U.S. "The U.S. can't win the
hearts of Pakistanis until you treat India and Pakistan at par,"
urged Punjab Law Minister Khan. Likewise, Finance Secretary
Malik bristled at the "step-motherly treatment vis-a-vis India."
On the other hand, PML politician Akhtar Khan thought that
India and Pakistan shared a common interest in preventing a
Taliban government in Islamabad. Moreover, Khan continued,
Pakistan must maintain an equilibrium with India. "If Pakistan
doesn't improve relations with India, we will lose out on the
economic boom, and a few nuclear weapons would do very little,"
he noted. He surmised that President Zardari wants to resolve
the Kashmir issue soon.

- - -
PPP Feeling Out Other Parties in Punjab, But Federal Government
Safe For Now
- - -


8. (C) Regarding the political outlook in the Punjab, PPP MPA
Zia acknowledged that the PPP has started to "sort out" its
problems with the PMLN, its majority partner in the Punjab
Assembly. He reported that the PPP has approached PMLQ members
to consider withdrawing from the coalition, but PMLN has also
"wooed" them. Zia dismissed the level of support behind the PMLN
and Nawaz Sharif, and pointed to the waning lawyers movement as
proof of his declining influence "on the streets." He also
doubted that Sharif would lend his support to the PPP-ruled
federal government; "his mindset is different," Zia explained.


9. (C) Regarding the Punjab provincial government, Senior PML
politician Khan surmised that while a few Q-League members might
vote for the PPP, Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif would
survive a no-confidence vote. "The only thing that will
dislodge the PMLN is if [Zardari] imposes Governor's rule, but
imposing it for no reason would cause a lot of problems," he
offered. The situation might change if Zardari suspects that
the PMLN has started an anti-Zardari campaign in the media,
which might prompt the PPP to strike in Punjab. At the federal
level, Nawaz Sharif would likely refrain from causing too much
commotion. "I would not disrupt things too much if I were
Nawaz," Khan said. "He is not ready to take responsibility for
the center." On the other hand, Zardari would need Nawaz
Sharif's support if he attempts to secure a Kashmir resolution,
Khan noted.

- - -
Comment: PMLN Suspicious But Ready to Work with U.S.
- - -


10. (C) As reflected in their private gripes and public
complaints about the lack of love from the U.S., the PMLN will
remain careful when dealing with the U.S., but the politicians
also recognize that they have little choice. Their criticism of
the U.S.-India relationship and incursions on Pakistani
sovereignty reflect bruised egos more than geostrategic
thinking. As long as the U.S. continues to supply equipment and
development assistance, the PMLN will grudgingly work towards
our common goals in the country and province, although the party
might occasionally take an anti-U.S. stance to differentiate
itself from the PPP. Ultimately, with Punjab undergoing
skyrocketing inflation and 12-hour-plus loadshedding per day,
the public debate -- at least in Punjab -- could shift towards
the severe economic stress and away from the U.S. and its role
in FATA.


HUNT