PAKISTAN PEOPLES PARTY WORKING TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAHORE 000260


E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN PEOPLES PARTY WORKING TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE
PUNJAB

Derived from: DSCG 05-1, B,D


1. (C) Principal Officer met August 26 with PPP Central
Executive Member and Member of the Punjab Provincial Assembly
Qasim Zia to review Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) efforts to
wrest control of the Punjab provincial government from its
former coalition partner, the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz
(PML-N). Zia claimed that following the PML-N's resignation
from the federal government on August 25, he and Punjab Governor
Salman Taseer had been instructed to begin active preparations
for a realignment of the Punjab government. Zia shared that the
PPP had decided that the current provincial governing coalition
of PML-N and PPP was no longer workable in light of the PML-N
defection at the federal level. Neither party currently
commands an indepedent majority in the provincial assembly (186
seats),although the PML-N (the current lead in the provincial
coalition) has the largest number of seats with 171.


2. (C) Qasim Zia stated that with the inevitable split in the
current provincial coalition, the key to power in the Punjab lay
with the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) -- the official opposition
-- and the PML Forward Block, an unofficial group of disgruntled
PML MPAs who have been actively negotiating to join the
governing coalition. Both groups have opened independent
negotiations with the PML-N and the PPP over which party they
would support should the provincial coalition split. The
respective size of the two groups is uncertain, as no formal
membership list for the Forward Block exists. The PML had 83
members prior to the creation of the Forward Block, estimates on
the size of which range from 10 to 35 members. Post believes
around 15 PML members are genuinely loyal to the Forward Block
leaders.


3. (C) According to Zia, the PPP, which currently has 107 seats,
believes that it can count on the support of Independents (4),
Pakistan Muslim League - Functional (3),and Muttahida
Majlis-e-Amal (2) members of the assembly. This means that the
party likely requires the support of both the PML and the PML
Forward Block in order to oust the PML-N from control of the
provincial government. Zia claimed that he had personally been
charged with negotiating with the PML Forward Block leaders and
that to date they were largely receptive. They were prepared to
join the PPP in forming the government after the presidential
election and to vote for Zardari in the presidential election
provided that the PPP accepted them into the new coalition first
and separately from the mainstream PML. Zia claimed that
negotiations between Governor Salman Taseer and the Chaudhries
had similarly led the PPP to believe that the PML would support
them in taking over the provincial government. Zia admitted,
however, that both groups were being courted equally assiduously
by the PML-N following their departure from the federal
government and that the final outcome could not be assured.


4. (C) Zia noted, however, that the PPP had two additional
tricks that could tilt the balance of power in the province in
its favor. The first would be to have Chief Justice Hameed
Dogar invalidate Shahbaz Sharif's oath as a Member of the
Assembly. Shahbaz, who ran in by-elections from two
constituencies, failed to withdraw his candidacy for the second
after being declared victorious and taking his oath of office as
a member from the first. The PPP, using somewhat convoluted
legal logic, claims that this is unconstitutional and that, in
fact, Shahbaz ceased being a member from his first constituency
when he was elected a member from his second -- even though he
resigned his second seat. If upheld by a court, this logic
would invalidate his election as Chief Minister, an election
which occurred when he was a member only from his first seat.
Given the two-term limit on Chief Ministers, if Shahbaz is
required to take his second seat, he could not be reelected as
Chief Minister, placing the PML-N in a very difficult position,
which the PPP hopes would ensure its Chief Ministerial
candidate's support. Zia claimed that Chief Justice Dogar is
prepared to issue the necessary legal ruling if requested to do
so by Zardari.


5. (C) Failing all else, Zia claimed that the PPP was prepared
to change both the Chief Secretary and the Inspector General of
Police, thereby denying Shahbaz the necessary bureaucratic
support to govern the province effectively. While both
positions are nominally appointed by the Prime Minister,
tradition but not law allows the Chief Minister of a province a
say in who is appointed. The PPP is prepared to violate
tradition, remove Shahbaz's handpicked officeholders, and
replace them with PPP loyalists who would take direction from
Zardari and Governor Taseer rather than Shahbaz. This, Zia
claimed, was essential to avoid a repeat of 1988 when the PML-N
controlled the Punjab provincial government and used it as a
platform to destabilize the federal government of then-Prime
Minister Benazir Bhutto.


6. (C) Comment: The PPP strategy to obtain PML and PML Forward
Block support appears relatively advanced. The PML-N is no
doubt making a similar simultaneous push and the outcome cannot
easily be predicted at this juncture. It appears certain,
however, that the current provincial coalition government, like
its counterpart at the center appears doomed to failure. End
Comment


HUNT