SOUTHERN NIGERIAN VOICES: EXPECT NEW ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000044

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
TREASURY FOR DPETERS, RHALL, RABDULRAZAK
ENERGY FOR PERSON, GAY
COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS
STATE PASS USTR FOR LISER, AGAMA
STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR KSAMPLE
STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN, MSTUCKART, JEDWARDS
STATE PASS TDA FOR EEBONG, DSHUSTER
STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER
STATE PASS USAID FOR NFREEMAN, GBERTOLIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN NIGERIAN VOICES: EXPECT NEW ELECTIONS,
SUPPORT CIVIL SOCIETY


Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL DONNA BLAIR FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: NGO contacts recommended international
donors focus on strengthening civil society and Nigerian
institutions and told PolCouns that President Yar'Adua's
political hands are tied until the election tribunal
determines his fate. Presidential candidate for the African
Democratic Congress (ADC),Pat Utomi, says he will align with
Muhammadu Buhari to counter a possible Yar'Adua/Atiku ticket
if Yar'Adua's election is annulled. The People's Democratic
Party (PDP) is being challenged in Ekiti State by both the
Action Congress (AC)-dominated Senate and the Ekiti state
election tribunal, which recently set a national precedent by
allowing forensic evidence of election rigging. Chief Supo
Shonibare of Afenifere, a pan-Yoruba socio-cultural group,
chided the PDP for announcing victory in areas where they had
no support and he criticized the public for abandoning
politics. End Summary.

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NGOs: Yar'Adua's Hands Are Tied;
Assist Civil Society
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2. (C) During a January 31 roundtable, Lagos-based civil
society representatives told visiting PolCouns in a recent
visit to Lagos that they were surprised the U.S. and European
governments believe President Yar'Adua is "on game," when
they believe he and his limited network of advisors are
overwhelmed. (Note: As far as we know, we have never said
that President Yar'Adua was "on game," but that he had a
successful Washington visit. End note.) They commented
Yar'Adua has presented a good public face and has good policy
ideas, but argued that his health, networks and experience
are so limited (largely to Katsina) they doubted he would get
structures in place to implement policy changes. Ayo
Ighodaro of Concerned Professionals thought Yar'Adua's hands
would be tied until after the election tribunal; Yemisi
Ransome-Kuti, Executive Director of Nigeria Network of NGOs
(NNNGO),thought they would remain tied after that due to
"power blocks" and his commitments to financial backers
during the elections.


3. (SBU) Ransome-Kuti continued her comments by saying that
Nigeria lacks developed institutions and structures.
Rebuilding the democratic process and structures takes time,
she admitted. To support these advancements, the U.S. should
reconsider its objectives in Nigeria and seek to strengthen
civil society, she said. She questioned U.S. objectives
during the election (and the little support given to
increasing civil society's capacity),reasoning that
transparent elections require both time and a strong civil
society. (Note: The U.S. Mission provided extensive support
before and during the 2007 elections to both civil society
and NGO groups. We also believe that support for these
groups help them play a critical role in bringing to light
the problems with the elections. End note.)


4. (SBU) Abiola Akiyode-Afolabi of Women Advocacy and
Documentation Center said Nigerians want to defend fair
elections, but asked how they are expected to do this when
faced with guns. Ransome-Kuti questioned why anyone would
protest rigged elections and risk dying if there is no hope
of improved subsequent elections. Ayo agreed, but added that
although people are not visibly dying in the streets for
democracy, they are still fighting for change.

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Utomi Seeks Buhari Coalition;
Expect Atiku to Join Yar'Adua
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5. (C) Nigeria's political opposition is a mess because the

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political class considers politics a "bidding game" in which
everyone (including the losers) wins something, according to
Pat Utomi of the African Democratic Congress presidential
aspirant in the April 2007 elections, Director of the Lagos
Business School, and Director of the Center for Values in
Leadership. However, Utomi has sponsored the creation of
what he calls a "shadow government" to institutionalize
political opposition platforms and bring together those who
seek to launch a debate on democratic ideas. Utomi said he
remains in contact with former Vice President Atiku (who now
resides in Dubai) and Muhammadu Buhari because he predicts
the Supreme Court will cancel Yar'Adua's election. While
Utomi is trying to encourage both men to merge into one
powerful opposition party, he said Atiku and Buhari dislike
one another and have very different ruling styles. Therefore
Utomi predicts he would most likely align with Buhari while
Atiku would join Yar'Adua. (Comment: Utomi is a reformist
interested in improving political debate and challenging
ideas; while he may run for a seat in government, he appears
less interested in party names and more interested in
acquiring a sympathetic partner. End Comment.)


6. (C) The People's Democratic Party (PDP) is an enemy to
itself, Utomi commented, as no PDP member believes in the
party. The middle class, which in a normal country would be
the driving force of political reform, has all but left
Nigeria, Utomi explained. In his view, the PDP is nothing
but a soulless machine through which its members acquire
political positions. While Yar'Adua has a soul, he has no
network and his worldview is limited to Katsina State,
therefore Utomi thinks it unlikely he can change the PDP.
Court rulings will play a critical role in Nigeria's future,
Utomi posited. (Embassy Comment: Abuja has heard similar
comments about the President's provincial focus and nature.
However, there is a sense that he is being forced by virtue
of his position to become more involved in regional issues.
His recent statement in Addis at the AU Summit on the Gulf of
Guinea Commission may signal his efforts to do that. End
comment.)

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Ekiti Tribunals Set Legal Precedent;
AC Senate Challenges PDP Governor
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7. (C) Kayode Fayemi, Action Congress (AC) gubernatorial
challenger in Ekiti State, told PolCouns on January 30 that
the Ekiti governorship tribunal set a legal precedent for
Nigeria by allowing forensic evidence of election rigging to
be presented in court. The PDP "forgot to rig the Senate" in
Ekiti and as a result, Fayemi said, the Senate and the
Governor have been at odds since the elections.


8. (C) The PDP has also been unable to control local
government elections thanks to a united AC front. The AC
effectuated the removal of the State Independent National
Election Commission (INEC) head, described by Fayemi as "a
Siamese twin of the PDP" working for an organization that was
"corrupt, biased, incompetent to put it mildly." INEC
replaced him with a 73-year old woman with no electoral
experience, but who is Obasanjo's next-door neighbor.


9. (SBU) Fayemi said the Oyo State by-election was further
proof that INEC should not be involved with additional
elections. Fayemi said the tribunals do not appear to be
corrupt and the judiciary is Nigeria's only hope to "prevent
Kenya from happening here." However, Fayemi noted that two
chief judges who were seriously considering the vote-rigging
evidence were transferred out of Ekiti during the tribunal
proceedings.

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Afenifere Still Relevant, Says Chief

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10. (C) National Publicity Secretary of Afenifere (a
pan-Yoruba socio-cultural group),Chief Supo Shonibare, told
PolCouns that he has seen evidence of democratic progress in
Nigeria but the April 2007 elections only weakened an already
fragile democracy. He described the People's Democratic
Party (PDP) "lunacy" of declaring victory in areas where they
had no support. In Lagos State, the PDP was unable to "run
over the system in place," Shonibare commented, because
bribes by the PDP and the AC canceled one another out. He
claimed Afenifere kept the elections from being rigged more
than they were.


11. (C) Shonibare decried the abandonment of public and
political space by Nigerians; he compared them to the
Senegalese who never gave up and their struggles resulted in
free and fair elections. When asked by PolCouns whether
poverty has not hastened people's retreat from political
space, Shonibare said people were poor in the 1960s but had
faith in their leaders. Now, he commented, poor political
leadership has driven people toward those who can provide
hope, such as the churches or other religious figures.
Shonibare was notably wary of the Muslim north, which he
described as "unbalanced" in contrast to the Southwest.


12. (SBU) Shonibare told PolCouns Nigeria's state division
lines exacerbate the Niger Delta conflict. In his opinion,
Nigeria needs to devolve power to its six zones. When asked
by PolCouns whether this would exacerbate unequal resource
distribution, Shonibare dismissed the idea of the federal
government as "Father Christmas" and stated that, in the
past, each region had its own strength and economic
resources--though he conceded the oil factor has distorted
the economy. In his view, the six regions would hold states
more accountable for fiscal spending.


13. (C) Afenifere members are internally debating whether to
expand beyond the group's traditional Yoruba base, according
to Shonibare. While some want to remain non-partisan and
non-political, Afenifere is a successful instrument in
Southwestern politics--so much so that former president
Obasanjo wanted a role within the organization. Shonibare
said Afenifere is trying to mend the split which followed the
end of the Abacha military dictatorship in 1998, and is also
trying to consolidate its role as preserver of Yoruba
traditions.


14. (C) Comment: Our southern NGO guests were impressed by
and echoed support for the election tribunals, perhaps as the
only counterbalance to corrupt Nigerian elections. That
Yar'Adua is an honest man, bound by more dominating
individuals, who will continue to face questions of
legitimacy until after the tribunal has been a recurrent
comment in the south. Utomi's "shadow government" and hopes
of institutionalizing political opposition with Buhari are
commendable but may be difficult to implement. The constant
refrain of hope in the tribunals is heard strongly in the
Southwest. End Comment.


15. (U) This cable was cleared by Embassy Abuja.
BLAIR