NIGERIA: SOUTHWEST, SOUTHEAST GUBERNATORIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000299

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W,

E.O. 12958: DECL: 20 YEARS
TAGS: PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SOUTHWEST, SOUTHEAST GUBERNATORIAL
TRIBUNAL PROCESSES WIND DOWN AMID RULINGS

Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL DONNA BLAIR FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (SBU) Summary: On July 15, a federal appeals court in
Cross River State canceled the election of Governor Liyel
Imoke, and ordered a new election within 90 days. On July
11, an appeals court in Enugu upheld the election of Governor
Sullivan Chime. Also on July 11, a court of appeals
validated the election of Ebonyi Governor Martin Elechi. On
July 15, a tribunal widely believed to be corrupt validated
the election of Osun Governor Olagunsaye Oyinlola. The
tribunal process overall is a work in progress, as the
varying results above demonstrate. End Summary.

Appeals Court Overturns Imoke's Election
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2. (SBU) A Federal Appeals Court in Calabar, Cross River
State, canceled the April 14 2007 election of Governor Liyel
Imoke (People's Democratic Party, PDP) July 15. The Court
ordered the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)
to conduct new elections within three months of the date of
ruling. The Speaker of the House of Assembly, Francis Adah
(PDP),was subsequently sworn in as acting governor until the
election. The Court ruled that votes were improperly
allocated, that no certificate of returns was issued, and
that petitioners were denied a fair hearing. The Court's
judgment followed a dismissal of the Election Tribunal's
ruling in favor of Governor Imoke, and upheld the appeal of
the six governorship candidates who had alleged that the
April 14 elections were marred by gross irregularities and
non-compliance with electoral law. Imoke announced that he
would step down, and called a Cabinet and State legislators
meeting during which he formally handed over authority to
Speaker Adah.


3. (C) Since 1999, the PDP has been the dominant party in
Cross River State; opposition parties are almost
non-existent. However, the PDP has steadily lost support,
especially among the rural population. Clay Offoboche, a
Calabar-based political scientist and civil society activist,
told PolSpec July 17 that the PDP had resorted to underhanded
tactics such as improper vote allocation and certification
out of desperation at its loss of popularity. The rural
perspective, Offoboche said, described former Governor Donald
Duke's development projects as beneficial only to the
affluent; the poor feel left further behind as they face
unpaid salaries, dilapidated rural infrastructure, and
increasing poverty.

Osun Tribunal Member Alleged Corrupt
--------------


4. (SBU) An Osogbo, Osun State election tribunal July 15
dismissed the Action Congress (AC) governorship candidate
Rauf Aregbesola's claim that electoral malpractices including
violence and results manipulation placed Governor Olagunsoye
Oyinlola (PDP) in power after the April 14, 2007 elections.
The tribunal also refused to allow Aregbesola's case to be
reopened to admit further evidence.


5. (SBU) Tension in the state was high ahead of the ruling
due to allegations that the tribunal had accepted bribes. A
July 9 report in a news magazine stated Oyinlola's lawyers
had secret dealings with the tribunal members, and claimed to
have evidence of this contact in the form of text messages
and phone calls. On July 10, the Nigerian Bar Association
(NBA) led many civil society groups in urging an
investigation of the magazine's report. During a July 12
press conference, Aregbesola stated he would reject the
tribunal's ruling, even if it was in his favor, because of
these allegations of corruption. Though the National
Judicial Council (NJC) and Federal Court of Appeals had been
asked to dissolve the tribunal and order an investigation,
neither had reacted.


6. (C) The Osun Election Tribunal ruled despite prior
knowledge that allegations of corruption weakened its own
credibility. It is unclear for now if Aregbesola will appeal
the judgment, having rejected the tribunal's decision in its

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entirety. Even if he does appeal, it is unlikely that this
allegation will be accepted by the Appeals Court as grounds
for the appeal, as it falls outside the facts of the case
already presented.

Enugu Governor Chime's Election Upheld by Appeal Court
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Governor Sullivan Chime's (PDP) election was upheld
July 11 by an appeals court which overturned the tribunal
decision nullifying the same election. The appeal court
ruled the tribunal failed to provide sufficient time for
Chime to prove his case, and overturned all rulings in favor
of the three opposition candidates who claimed the election
was marred by irregularities.


8. (C) The July 11 appeals court ruling, originally scheduled
for July 7, was postponed and no official reason was given.
Opposition candidates alleged the court had given in to
pressure from powerful politicians to return Chime to office.
A national newspaper claimed Chime traveled extensively in
the days preceding the ruling, seeking support of people
close to court members. There has been no official denial of
these allegations to date. Ogochukwu Nkolagu, Enugu State
secretary of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) told
PolSpec July 16 that notwithstanding mistrust of the court,
the ruling mirrored the mood of the people, explaining why
there was no violent reaction afterward. He believed the
court may have based its decision on the fact that many
people feel comfortable with Chime's performance. Nobody
wants former Governor Chimaroke Nnamani and his highly
corrupt cronies back in power, Nkolagu explained, stating
this was one possible outcome of a hypothetical Chime
removal.


9. (C) Contacts in the Southeast had told PolOff in June that
Chime has done well for the state by paying pensions,
importing medical equipment for teaching hospitals, and
improving key roads leading to Nsukka and Adada. However,
they also said that due to uncertainty regarding the Court of
Appeals' decision, the security situation in the state had
deteriorated, and that the same pre-election dynamic of
distributing arms to hired thugs was on the rise. The
previous improvement in the security situation, contacts
stated, were very slight and very fragile, brought about by
adequately equipping the police. However, the equipment
police were given is failing and is not being replaced. The
ruling may increase security and stability in the state,
temporarily resolving these tensions.

Ebonyi: Appeal Court Rules Elechi's Election Valid
-------------- --------------


10. (C) A Court of Appeals dismissed an All Nigerian People's
Party (ANPP) petition seeking to overturn an election
tribunal ruling July 11, stating that ANPP candidate
Ogbonnaya Onu was unable to prove his allegations of gross
irregularity and non-voting in many polling places in the
Ebonyi gubernatorial election. Wisdom Uche Durueke, Director
of the Center for Development, Constitutionalism and Peace
Advocacy and attorney for Elechi's challenger Onu, stated
that during the tribunal hearing, INEC did a poor job of
presenting evidence, mixing up its presentations on ballots,
staff and polling placements. The tribunal had also rejected
proffered forensic evidence of vote rigging, Durueke said,
because the documents weren't presented early enough in the
trial. He pointed out that no true opposition party exists
in Ebonyi, despite their efforts, and described the common
view of the appeals process as "only for losers."


11. (C) Apart from Onu, no other group or party has openly
faulted the Appeals Court ruling, and no violence was
reported after the results were announced. While Ebonyi
state is one of the region's most stable, this may also
indicate that people are suffering from tribunal fatigue and
want to move on with their lives.

Abia: Orji's Appeal Ruling Postponed Indefinitely
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12. (C) Though an announcement was rumored to be coming July
11, the Port Harcourt appeal court did not render judgment in
the case of Theodore Orji's (People's Progressive Alliance)
governorship of Abia State. The tribunal nullified his
election based on two criteria. First, it was proven to the
tribunal's satisfaction that Orji is a member of a secret
cult, an illegal association for elected officials, according
to Nigerian law. Second, Orji had not properly resigned his
earlier position before winning the election; Nigerian law
holds a person cannot occupy two government positions
simultaneously. Olissa Agbakoba, head of the Nigerian Bar
Association and Orji's lawyer, told PolOff June 18 that the
appeal court will rule in Orji's favor. The shrine Orji
belongs to is not a secret shrine, if everyone knows about
it, Agbakoba argued, adding that Orji held a political
appointee position in government previously, from which he
was not required to resign. Whether his positive assessment
of his client's situation will come true remains to be seen.


13. (C) Comment: While the tribunal process has not yet
ended, their efforts have yielded uneven results. It is hard
to determine whether their actions have been transparent or
effective in building confidence in the election process. In
several states, they have overturned the PDP incumbents'
elections (such as Cross River, Rivers, Bayelsa, and Edo
state),which is perceived by many as indicating the
tribunals' independence and vitality, and their adherence to
the rule of law. In other cases, tribunals and appeals
courts have supported the incumbent. Of these, our contacts
contend the tribunals were either corrupt (as alleged in Oyo,
Osun and Ogun states),or favored stability over law (in the
cases of Enugu and Ebonyi). In Bayelsa State, where the
election was rerun, supporters of the Governor gloat that the
whole process not only gave the Governor legitimacy, it
extended his tenure for a year. Like many things in Nigeria,
the tribunals are a work in progress, with mixed reviews of
their effectiveness. End Comment.
BLAIR