PARLIAMENT'S GRILLING MORE FIZZLE THAN SIZZLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000043

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KWMN PINR KU
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENT'S GRILLING MORE FIZZLE THAN SIZZLE

REF: A. KUWAIT 0035

B. KUWAIT 1762

C. KUWAIT 1760

D. KUWAIT 1590

E. KUWAIT 1562

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Alan G. Misenheimer for Reasons 1.4 (b
) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On January 8 and 9, Islamist MP Saad
Al-Shraye "grilled" (publicly questioned) Education Minister
Nouriya Al-Sabeeh before the National Assembly. Al-Shraye's
accusations against the Minister were weak and vague, and
Al-Sabeeh defended herself ably on the Assembly floor.
Parliament will vote on a "no-confidence" motion concerning
the Minister in two weeks, during which the GOK will likely
attempt to marshal parliamentary support for her. While the
embattled Al-Sabeeh may have boosted her chances of retaining
her cabinet seat, an Amiri decree dissolving Parliament --
sometime after the 01/11-12 POTUS visit -- remains highly
likely. END SUMMARY.


Islamist MP's Arguments Fizzle
--------------


2. (U) On January 8 and 9, Islamist MP Dr. Saad Al-Shraye
"grilled" Minister of Education and Minister of Higher
Education Nouriya Al-Sabeeh in Parliament. Al-Sabeeh is
Kuwait's only remaining female minister. Al-Shraye accused
the minister of misleading MPs, committing administrative and
legal wrongdoing, violating national mores and contributing
to the deterioration of Kuwait's education system. During
his interpellation, Al-Shraye failed to produce any
compelling evidence against Al-Sabeeh, relying on feeble
complaints and hearsay. Minister Al-Sabeeh, in contrast,
mounted a spirited defense, systematically refuting
Al-Shraye's accusations and presenting her vision and
performance in a positive light. Due to the historically
confrontational nature of grillings, some observers predicted
that the Amir would dissolve Parliament rather than allow
Al-Sabeeh to be publicly excoriated (ref A). The
surprisingly respectful and cordial tone of the Sabeeh
grilling -- despite widely reported indications that Shraye
planned to humiliate her by showing film of "mixed" (i.e.
boys and girls together) student parties -- may have
prevented this grilling from constituting a final tripwire
for dissolution.


3. (C) At the conclusion of the grilling, a mix of ten
Islamist and pro-government MPs requested a "no-confidence"
motion against Al-Sabeeh, which Parliament will deliberate in
about two weeks' time. The no-confidence motion would
require support from 25 of the 48 MPs to pass, in which case
Sabeeh would be dismissed from the cabinet. The GOK is now
considering its options and maneuvering to strike deals with
MPs. If the GOK cannot muster enough support for Al-Sabeeh,
the Amir is likely to dissolve Parliament. The Amir will
meet with MPs from various political blocs on January 13 in a
routine but critical planning session.


Parliamentary Dissolution Still Likely
--------------


3. (C) While Al-Sabeeh may survive this grilling and retain
her position (and indeed will both meet and dine with
President Bush on January 12 during his stay in Kuwait),the
National Assembly remains on a probably course to dissolution
within the next few weeks. We believe the Amir actually
signed a decree dissolving the Parliament on January 6, but
then held it back as the PM continued to haggle with MPs.
Post believes the Amir will use this decree as leverage over
Parliament in the short term. The Amir conveyed word to NEA
A/S Welch (via Salem Al Sabah, the Kuwaiti Ambassador in
Washington) that he would not dissolve Parliament during or
in the immediate wake of the upcoming POTUS visit to Kuwait.


4. (C) Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) CEO Saad Al-Shuwaib
also predicted that a dissolution was likely but not
inevitable. During a January 8 meeting with CDA, he cited
the recent passage of tax reform legislation (ref B) in
arguing that Parliament may be changing its behavior in the
face of threats of dissolution. Nevertheless, he lamented the
MPs' preference for grilling ministers instead of passing
legislation and cited the many draft laws still awaiting
deliberation. Al-Shuwaib said a recent Al-Qabas public
opinion poll demonstrates that most Kuwaitis are fed up with
this Parliament.


5. (C) In a conversation with Charge on January 8, U/S for

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Higher Education Dr. Rasha Al Sabah opined that a dissolution
of Parliament, although likely, would yield little. She
expects that the same cadre of MPs would be re-elected, with
women finding it difficult to win election under the new
districting system. Al Sabah also criticized the dual nature
of the minister's responsibilities and advocated a split
between the Education and Higher Education portfolios. Al
Sabah was concerned about another potential grilling of
Al-Sabeeh, this time originating with the opposition Popular
Action Bloc and dealing with Al-Sabeeh's handling of her
higher education portfolio.


Comment
--------------


6. (C) POTUS' imminent visit, combined with the somewhat
anticlimactic grilling of the Education Minister, has pushed
back the Amiri decision to dissolve Parliament. However, a
successful "no-confidence" motion against Al-Sabeeh or
additional ministerial grillings will likely trigger a
dissolution over coming weeks. End Comment.

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For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
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MISENHEIMER