DEFECTIONS FROM BN ABOUT TO BEGIN?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000516

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV MY
SUBJECT: DEFECTIONS FROM BN ABOUT TO BEGIN?


Classified By: DCM David Shear, reasons 1.4 (b and d)

1.(C) Summary. A small Sabah-based component party of PM
Abdullah,s ruling coalition has announced plans to introduce
a no-confidence motion in Prime Minister Abdullah on Monday,
June 23. Whether the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) will be
allowed to introduce the motion and the extent to which other
ruling coalition members back it remains to be seen. Our
sources reported that Anwar planned to convene an "emergency"
meeting of the PKR leadership on the evening of June 18.
This could be the opening salvo of Anwar's campaign to have
BN MPs defect to the opposition -- or not. Anwar has been
stating publicly for some time that he has the 30 votes
necessary to form a new ruling coalition, but it remains
unclear whether or not he has been bluffing. Given
parliamentary rules as interpreted by the ruling coalition,
it is also unclear at this point whether SAPP will even be
allowed to introduce the motion as early as Monday. End
Summary.


2. (C) The Sabah Progressive Party, a member of the ruling
BN (Barisan Nasional) coalition with two MPs, announced on
June 18 plans to introduce a no-confidence motion against PM
Abdullah's government when parliament resumes on June 23. In
recent days the rhetoric from both sides has escalated, with
de facto opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim reiterating his
promise to oust the BN government by September. The
Government-controlled press has responded by giving front
page coverage to component party leaders' denials that they
intend to leave the BN fold. Denials notwithstanding, a
number of Sabah BN MPs reportedly were conspicuously absent
from events associated with PM Abdullah's June 16-17 visit to
Kota Kinabalu. Several BN heavyweights, including BN
Secretary General Adnan Tengku Mansor, reportedly are in
Sabah attempting to head off any defections.


3. (C) SAPP President Yong Teck Lee has been among the more
outspoken Sabah politicians since the March 8 election on
Sabah's grievances vis a vis the central government. Yong
told reporters that he supported a no-confidence motion
because, inter alia, UMNO had not done enough to develop
Sabah's economy or solve the problem of illegal immigration.
June 18 press reports also speculated that rather than join
the opposition, the SAPP and other Sabah component parties
may be planning to set up an independent bloc of up to 25 MPs
(virtually the entire BN delegation from Sabah).


4. (C) Polcouns, currently in Kota Kinabalu, met on June 18
with Joseph Pairin Kitingan, President of Parti Bersatu Sabah
(PBS),a small BN component party holding three seats in
Parliament. Kitingan indicated that his party distrusted
Anwar and would "stick it out with the BN for the time
being," but he nevertheless expressed disappointment in the
Government's inaction on Sabah's priorities and said he hoped
for a change of leadership in the BN. PKR Sabah chief
Jeffrey Kitingan told polcouns on June 18 that SAPP would
make the first move, possibly leaving the BN as early as June
23, and that other parties or MPs would follow.


5. (C) On June 18 Nazri Aziz, the Minister in the Prime
Minister,s Department responsible for Parliament, maintained
that a no-confidence motion could not possibly be tabled on
June 23 because notice for all motions must be given in
writing 14 days in advance. He added that an "emergency
motion" could be tabled with only one day notice, but this
would require approval by BN-appointed Speaker Pandikar Amin
Mulia. Pandikar himself is a veteran Sabah politician and he
recently resigned his position as an UMNO division chief in
the interest of assuming a more "neutral" image as Speaker.
PKR Sabah chief Kitingan said Pandikar had good relations
with some in the opposition and claimed that Pandikar had
even considered joining the opposition before his appointment
as Speaker.


5. (C) Comment: In itself the SAPP's defection from the
ruling coalition would put only a minor dent in the BN's
majority. This could nevertheless be the opening salvo of
Anwar's campaign to have BN MPs defect to the opposition --
or not. Our sources reported that Anwar planned to convene an
"emergency" meeting of the PKR leadership on the evening of
June 18. Anwar has been stating publicly for some time that
he has the 30 votes necessary to form a new ruling coalition,
but it remains unclear whether or not he has been bluffing.
Given Nazri's statement, it is also unclear at this point
whether SAPP will be allowed to introduce the motion as early
as Monday.





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