UMNO YOUTH OFFICIAL ON HEATED PARTY CONTESTS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000512

SIPDIS

FOR EAP AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2028
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: UMNO YOUTH OFFICIAL ON HEATED PARTY CONTESTS AND
MONEY POLITICS

REF: KUALA LUMPUR 447 - NAJIB AIDE

Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark, reason 1.4 (b and
d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Many UMNO party branches and divisions could nominate
a Najib/Muhyiddin ticket despite Prime Minister Abdullah's
confirmation that he will stand for reelection in the
December party contest, UMNO party youth official Suffian
Awang told us on June 17. Eleven candidates would vie
seriously for three UMNO vice president slots, while there
could be a three-cornered race for the powerful Youth chief
position. Suffian stated matter-of-factly that heated party
contests would enrich UMNO delegates as candidates would
utilize old-style money politics to buy support. End
Summary.

Grassroots to Endorse Najib/Muhyiddin
--------------


2. (C) Mohamed Suffian Awang, Youth division leader from
Kuantan for the ruling United Malays National Organization
(UMNO) party, provided polchief on June 17 with purported
"grassroots" perspectives on upcoming UMNO leadership
contests. Suffian, who also sits on the UMNO Youth national
executive council, anticipated that upcoming UMNO branch
elections (July-August) and division elections
(October-November) would result in nominations for current
Deputy Prime Minister/Deputy UMNO President Najib Tun Razak
to replace embattled Abdullah Badawi as party leader,
together with nominations for UMNO Vice President Muhyiddin
Yassin to fill the number two slot. UMNO divisions would
endorse a Najib/Muhyiddin ticket even though PM Abdullah has
made it clear he will stand for reelection in UMNO's national
elections in December and Najib has publicly reaffirmed his
loyalty to Abdullah. "The grassroots will have their say,"
and support Najib to replace Abdullah, Suffian said, echoing
a message we have heard repeatedly, including from Najib's
political secretary (reftel).


3. (C) Suffian emphasized that Muhyiddin in particular has
clearly committed himself to gaining election as the UMNO
Deputy President "come what may." Suffian also remarked that
UMNO veteran leader Tengku Razaleigh's campaign to gain
nominations to challenge Abdullah for the UMNO presidency has
attracted some grassroots attention, as evidenced by the UMNO
crowds Razaleigh has gathered as he tours the country.


4. (C) Within UMNO, Suffian contended PM Abdullah came in
for recent criticism as an inconsistent leader, including the
sudden announcement of the fuel price increase which
contradicted the government's earlier plan for a price rise
in August. Many in UMNO saw Abdullah's approach to reforms
as catering to an opposition agenda, not an UMNO agenda, and
there was widespread UMNO dislike of de facto judicial reform
Minister Zaid Ibrahim.

Stiff Competition for VP Slots
--------------


5. (C) Beyond the struggle for party's top two positions,
the UMNO election cycle will feature fierce competition for
the three elected Vice President slots. Suffian believed
there were 11 senior leaders seriously competing for three VP
positions at this point, namely five cabinet members (Home
Minister Syed Hamid Albar, Education Minister Hishamuddin
Hussein, Foreign Minister Rais Yatim, Higher Education
Minister Khalid Nordin, and Minister without portfolio Ahmad
Zahid Hamidi); Chief Ministers from four states (Ghani Othman
of Johor, Ali Rastum of Malacca, Mohamad Hasan of Negeri
Sembilan, and Adnan Yaakob of Pahang); and two former Chief
Ministers (Shahidan Kassim of Perlis and Abdul Rahim Tamby
Chik of Malacca).

Race for Youth Chief
--------------


6. (C) Suffian said the contest to replace Hishamuddin
Hussein as the powerful UMNO Youth chief currently appears to
be a three-cornered race featuring Mahathir's son Mukhriz, PM
son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin and former Selangor Chief
Minister Khir Toyo. Khir Toyo was positioning himself as a
man of the people as opposed to Mukhriz and Khairy whose
positions depending on their family connections. Khir Toyo's

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reputation had suffered, however, after UMNO's shocking loss
of Selangor state to the opposition parties.

Show Me the Money
--------------


7. (C) UMNO activists and would-be delegates to the national
party elections were ecstatic with this year's stiff
competition because it meant that they would collect larger
payments from candidates, Suffian stated matter-of-factly.
Money politics would be key to candidates' success, Suffian
commented, as "this is the way UMNO does business," and UMNO
delegates would expect compensation. UMNO politicians from
Sabah in particular were known for their willingness to sell
their support. Suffian recalled earlier party elections in
which delegates took home cars, motorcycles, appliances,
stock options in government-linked companies, and pre-paid
credit cards, in addition to cash. (Note: Some UMNO
delegates at the 2004 national party elections received
compensation roughly equivalent to $95,000 in today's
valuation, according to Embassy sources. End Note.)

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Suffian is not a first-tier UMNO leader but we report
his statements as representative of comments we have heard
from a number of UMNO voices, particularly those who want to
see Najib replace Abdullah by year's end. Najib recently and
publicly restated his loyalty to Abdullah and his support for
an orderly transition. Najib, however, has not spoken out
yet against "grassroots" efforts to nominate a
Najib/Muhyiddin ticket for the December elections, efforts
that Najib's own camp appears very willing to encourage.

KEITH