NAJIB AIDE: ABDULLAH SHOULD MAKE WAY SOON FOR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000447

SIPDIS

FOR EAP AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2028
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: NAJIB AIDE: ABDULLAH SHOULD MAKE WAY SOON FOR
NAJIB AND MUHYIDDIN


Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark, reason 1.4 (b and
d).


1. (S) Summary: Deputy Prime Minister Najib's political
secretary, Fatmi Che Salleh (protect throughout),suggested
in a May 29 meeting with us that Prime Minister Abdullah
should make way for a Najib ticket with UMNO Vice President
Muhyiddin by announcing as soon as possible that he
(Abdullah) will not run for reelection in the December UMNO
polls. Regardless, grassroots UMNO members wanted Abdullah
removed and this would be manifested in the October/November
UMNO division elections. Najib would remain the loyal "crown
prince," but Muhyiddin was less constrained to push for
Abdullah's departure. De facto minister Zaid Ibrahim's
approach to judicial reforms had angered many UMNO leaders,
said Fatmi who is a political rival to Zaid. Claims by
opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim that he could bring down the
government were only a bluff and represented psychological
warfare. End Summary.


2. (S) Fatmi told polchief during a May 29 meeting that in
order to end the leadership crisis in the ruling UMNO party,
PM Abdullah needed to clarify the succession plan that would
transfer power to DPM Najib. PM Abdullah's pronouncements in
April had confirmed that Najib is the successor, but Abdullah
had yet to specify a clear timeframe. UMNO leaders and
members were impatient for the transfer to happen sooner
rather than later, and "the question of 'when' is vital."


3. (S) Ideally, Fatmi said, Abdullah should announce now
that he will not run for reelection as UMNO president in the
December party polls. This would clear the way for a
Najib/Muhyiddin ticket that UMNO divisions would endorse
during their October/November elections, following political
spade work in UMNO branch elections in July/August. If left
to the last moment, Abdullah's announcement could lead to
contentious division meetings and harm UMNO. If Abdullah
insists on running for reelection, many divisions would still
attempt to nominate Najib/Muhyiddin and the situation would
be worse. "You can't stop the UMNO grassroots," Fatmi
contended.


4. (S) As the "crown prince," Najib could not push for
Abdullah to set a departure date without appearing unseemly.
Muhyiddin, however, did not face the same constraints. It
was in Muhyiddin's interest, Fatmi argued, to pressure
Abdullah to step down soon, so that Muhyiddin could take
advantage of a window of opportunity to become Deputy Prime
Minister. Muhyiddin may not be able to remain in place as an
UMNO Vice President (one of five) come December, and may need
to move up to UMNO Deputy President or face the end of his
political career.


5. (C) Fatmi stated that the UMNO VP slots would be hotly
contested, and that there were 40 candidates being talked
about for five positions. One of them, Syed Hamid Albar,
faced difficulties holding on to his own party division in
Johor, despite his powerful cabinet position as Home
Minister. Intensive lobbying within UMNO would likely take
place in September during the Muslim fasting month.


6. (C) Fatmi predicted that Mukhriz Mahathir, son of the
former Prime Minister and a prominent voice calling for
Abdullah's resignation, would be elected UMNO Youth chief in
December. UMNO sentiment remained set against Khairy
Jamaluddin, Abdullah's son-in-law, and would prevent Khairy
from winning the Youth contest.


7. (S) Zaid Ibrahim's inclusion in Abdullah's cabinet as de
facto minister in charge of judicial reform came as a
surprise, Fatmi noted. Zaid's concept of a judicial
appointments commission was not popular in UMNO, and UMNO
leaders were angered by PM Abdullah's decision to announce
this reform at a Bar Council event attended by opposition
leaders. Fatmi argued that "Zaid is one reason UMNO is
against Abdullah." Fatmi also explained that Zaid is
attempting to regain the leadership of the Kota Bharu UMNO
division which Fatmi currently heads. (Comment: Fatmi and
Zaid are political rivals within UMNO. End Comment.)


8. (C) Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim's threats to bring
down the National Front (BN) government, which UMNO leads,
through the defection of 30 BN MPs is a "bluff," Fatmi said.
Negotiations for such defections must be carried out
individually, and it would be exceedingly difficult to
convince one individual that 29 other MPs were prepared to
jump at the same time. "If Anwar can pull off such a move,

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he deserves to be Prime Minister." Fatmi interpreted Anwar's
statements as psychological warfare against UMNO.


9. (S) Comment: It is significant that Najib's political
secretary was willing in our meeting to clearly endorse the
necessity of pushing aside Abdullah as soon as possible; in
previous encounters Fatmi stuck close to the public line and
did not reveal much daylight between Najib and Abdullah. To
the extent that Fatmi's views reflect Najib's political
strategy, we could expect pro-Najib forces to use UMNO branch
and division voices to discourage Abdullah from pursuing
reelection as UMNO President. Pushing Muhyiddin out in front
also serves Najib's purpose in this scenario.

KEITH